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Can Donald Trump accept a defeat in Afghanistan?
唐纳德·特朗普能否接受美国在阿富汗战场失败的结局？
THE TALIBAN AND ISIS KILLED AT LEAST 140 people in January in a wave of attacks inside Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital.
1月份，阿富汗首都喀布尔发生一波袭击事件，塔利班和伊斯兰国杀死了140多人。
It’s a reminder that this 16-year war, the longest in U.S. history, rages on.
这件事提醒了大家，这次长达16年的战争——美国历史上持续时间最长的战争……已经打响。
At least 30,000 Afghan civilians and more than 2,200 U.S. soldiers have died.
3万多名阿富汗平民和2,200多名美国士兵死亡。
As attacks mount, it’s time to take a longer look at the U.S. goals in Afghanistan.
随着袭击加剧，现在是时候重新审视美国在阿富汗的投入了。
President Trump has tried to show positive results.
特朗普总统试图让大家看到积极的结果。
He has deferred to his generals on how best to achieve strategic goals and put thousands of additional troops on the ground.
就如何最好地实现战略目标以及在地面上增调数千名美军两个问题，他听从了将军们的意见。
Afghanistan has a reasonably strong government in Kabul under the leadership of President Ashraf Ghani.
在阿什拉夫·加尼总统的领导下，阿富汗在喀布尔有着相当强大的政府。
It hasn’t helped.
但并没有什么用。
The Trump Administration has at the same time shifted support away from Pakistan in favor of closer relations with India.
因为特朗普政府在此时不再支持巴基斯坦，而已经转而和印度交好了。
U.S. aid to Pakistan has been suspended, giving its military and security services fewer reasons to accept sacrifice and risks to help U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan.
美国对巴基斯坦的援助已经中止，巴基斯坦军队及安全部门便没了援助阿富汗境内的美国领导的军队而冒牺牲和风险的理由。
Pakistan may even have provoked recent attacks;
最近的袭击甚至也有可能是巴基斯坦发动的;
an Afghan diplomat claimed that Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI,
某阿富汗外交官声称，巴基斯坦情报机构ISI，
had trained one of the Taliban militants who killed 40 people in a hotel attack on Jan.20.
曾经训练过一名塔利班武装分子，1月20日酒店袭击事件中死去的40人就是这些塔利班武装分子杀的。
Everyone in the region knows that the U.S. cannot stay forever.
中东地区所有人都知道美国不可能永远留在中东。
There are now about 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, compared with 100,000 in 2011.
目前阿富汗的军队人数约为1.4万人，而2011年则为10万人。
At some point, the last Americans will go home, just as the Soviets marched out in 1989,
将来某一天，滞留在中东的最后一批美国人也会回家，正如1989年那群苏联人一样，
and Afghanistan will again be an arena in which Pakistan, India and Iran jostle for position.
那时，阿富汗将再次成为巴基斯坦，印度和伊朗争夺阵地的舞台。
George W. Bush’s rationale for starting the war in 2001 was clear: the Taliban,
布什总统在2001年开战的理由很明确：塔利班，
then in charge in Kabul, refused to surrender Osama bin Laden, who had just ordered the murder of thousands of Americans on U.S. soil.
那时喀布尔还在他们手里，所以他们拒绝交出曾命令在美国土地上杀害数千名美国人的本·拉登。
Today’s question for Trump is equally clear: How can this war be won? Presidents Bush and Obama were never able to answer that question.
今天特朗普面临的问题依旧明显：美国如何赢得这场战争？布什总统、奥巴马总统都没能回答这个问题。
A second question for Trump: What does “America first” mean for U.S. policy in Afghanistan?
特朗普面临的第二个问题是：“美国第一”对美国在阿富汗的政策意味着什么？
Do American taxpayers care about what happens there?
美国的纳税人是否关心阿富汗发生的事情？
Both parties in Congress have supported efforts to help the Afghan government control enough territory
国会双方都支持帮助阿富汗政府控制足够领土的努力
to ensure that terrorists find no new safe haven from which to attack Western targets.
确保恐怖分子找不到新的安全庇护所来攻击西方国家。
But that government still lacks the resources and the country still lacks the infrastructure needed to achieve that goal.
问题是，特朗普政府还是没有足够的资源，美国也没有实现该目标所需的基础设施。
The result is a violent, expensive stalemate.
结局恐怕还是一场暴力而昂贵的僵局。
If Trump stops sending troops and money, the Afghan government will collapse.
如果特朗普不再提供军队和资金上的援助，阿富汗政府恐将崩溃。
If the troops and dollars continue to flow, Washington will be paying to extend the stalemate.
如果部队和美元继续往阿富汗流动，美国政府就要为延长僵局付出代价。
Can Donald Trump accept a defeat, even one he can blame on his predecessors?
唐纳德·特朗普能接受接受失败吗，即便他能将这一切都推到前任总统们身上？
And how long will it take him to decide?
他又需要多长时间才能做决定呢？
