评论
打印
People in countries like Germany, with robust governance and typically predictable weather, are reeling from the loss of a sense of safety in the face of climate change. "We live in a society that thinks it can control nature. And now people are feeling powerless against it," says Albi Roebke, an emergency chaplain deployed to counsel hundreds of survivors in North Rhine–Westphalia. "We have to be afraid of water and fire, like our ancestors 40,000 years ago. That's very difficult for people to understand." Studies will need to be done to prove that Europe's heavy rains were a direct result of climate change. But scientists say it is safe to assume it made them worse. Warmer air can hold more moisture—7% more for every 1°C increase in temperature— and Germany's average temperature has risen by at least 1.5°C since preindustrial times. Another possible factor is the shrinking difference in temperature between the polar regions and the equator, which could weaken global air currents, allowing low-pressure systems like the one over Western Europe in mid-July to stay in one place for a longer time. A similar effect may have helped trigger the "heat dome" over western Canada and the U.S. Northwest at the end of June.
德国有健全的治理系统，且德国的天气通常是可以预测的。所以在像德国这样的国家，人们在气候变化面前失去了安全感。“我们生活在一个人类自以为可以控制自然的社会，而现在却对自然感到无能为力，”被派往北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚为数百名幸存者提供咨询的紧急牧师阿尔比·罗布克说。“我们必须害怕水和火，就像我们4万年前的祖先一样，这对人们来说很难理解。”要想证明欧洲的暴雨是气候变化的直接结果还需进行研究。但科学家表示，可以肯定的是，它会让情况变得更糟。温暖的空气可以容纳更多的水分——温度每升高1°C，湿度就会增加7%——自前工业化时代以来，德国的平均气温至少上升了1.5°C。另一个可能的因素是极地和赤道之间的温差不断缩小，这可能会削弱全球气流，使低压系统(如7月中旬西欧上空的低压系统)在一个地方停留更长时间。六月底，加拿大西部和美国西北部的“热圆顶”也可能是由类似的效应引发的。
With climate change, "at some point, an event which would have been just heavy rainfall without too much damage is suddenly a really catastrophic event," says Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at the Climate Service Center Germany, a research body. "That threshold will simply be crossed more often."
随着气候变化，“在某种情况下，原本只是强降雨而没有造成太大破坏的事件突然变成了真正的灾难性事件。”研究机构德国气候服务中心的气候科学家卡斯滕·豪斯坦说，“这一门槛将被更频繁地跨越。”
The death toll in Germany may have been made worse by a sense of complacency about the risks of extreme weather, experts say. On July 12, German meteorologists warned of severe floods, and the national flood system issued an alert, but many say regional and local authorities did not successfully communicate risks to the public. In at least four instances, people drowned in their basements, possibly while trying to save their belongings. Others died while trying to move their cars to higher ground. "People thought, Yeah, I guess it's going to rain a lot. But they don't know what that means," Haustein says. "We have to get rid of this thought that somehow extreme and severe weather cannot impact us—this is the climate hubris we have going on in Europe."
专家表示，德国人对极端天气的风险感到自满，这可能会加剧死亡人数。7月12日，德国气象学家警告称将发生严重的水灾，国家洪水系统发布了警报，但多人表示地区和地方当局并没有向公众传达风险。地下室溺水身亡的情况出现了四次，受害者大概是为了抢救自己的财产。还有一些人在试图把车移到更高的地方时死亡。“人们想，是的，我想会下很多雨，但他们并不知道这意味着什么，”豪斯坦说。“人们总认为极端和恶劣的天气不会影响到自己，这是欧洲人对气候的傲慢，我们必须摆脱这种想法。”
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
