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Scientists say they were able to identify signs that Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano might erupt about two months before it exploded.
科学家说，他们能够在夏威夷莫纳罗亚火山爆发前两个月识别出它可能爆发的迹象。
A new study explains the signs they discovered and how their method might be used to predict future eruptions.
一项新的研究解释了他们发现的爆发迹象，以及他们使用了何种方法来预测火山的爆发。
Mauna Loa is the world’s largest active volcano. The volcano’s most recent eruption began in November 2022.
莫纳罗亚是世界上最大的活火山。这座火山最近一次喷发始于2022年11月。
In the weeks before the eruption, scientists identified, or detected, small earthquakes nearby.
在火山喷发前的几周里，科学家们发现或检测到了附近的小地震。
They also recognized other signs of volcanic activity and were able to warn people on the island of Hawaii.
他们还发现了火山活动的其他迹象，可以提前预警夏威夷岛上的人们。
Now, examinations of lava from the volcano have confirmed when melted rock underground started to move.
现在，对火山熔岩的检查证实了地下熔岩开始移动的时间。
Kendra Lynn is a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory who helped lead the research.
肯德拉·林恩是夏威夷火山观测站的研究地质学家，他帮助领导了这项研究。
She also co-wrote the study, which recently appeared in the publication Nature Communications.
她也是这项研究的合著者，该研究最近发表在《自然通讯》杂志上。
Lynn told the Associated Press that ground expansion and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from melted magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust.
林恩告诉美联社，火山附近的地面扩张和地震活动增加是由从地壳下层上升的熔融岩浆造成的。
This movement of liquefied rock filled openings beneath the volcano.
这种液化岩石的运动填满了火山下方的洞口。
When the underground pressure got high enough, the magma broke through hard surface rock and became lava.
当地下压力足够高时，岩浆会冲破坚硬的地表岩石，变成熔岩。
Later, the researchers collected pieces of the volcanic rock.
后来，研究人员收集了火山岩的碎片。
The team studied the chemistry of certain crystals within the lava to estimate when major movements began.
研究小组研究了熔岩中某些晶体的化学成分，以此来预测大型移动开始的时间。
It found that around 70 days before Mauna Loa’s eruption, large amounts of melted rock had moved from three to five kilometers underground to just two kilometers beneath the surface.
研究发现，在莫纳罗亚火山喷发前约70天，大量熔融的岩石从地下3至5公里移动到地表下仅2公里处。
The researchers said this movement matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.
研究人员说，这一运动与地质学家用其他迹象观察到的时间线相吻合。
Before 2022, the last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984.
在2022年以前，莫纳罗亚火山最后一次喷发是在1984年。
Most of the U.S. volcanoes scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and near the West Coast.
科学家认为大多数美国活火山都位于夏威夷、阿拉斯加和西海岸附近。
Worldwide, about 585 volcanoes are considered active.
在世界范围内，大约有585座火山是活跃的。
“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs," said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez.
Erik Klemetti Gonzalez说：“火山很棘手，因为我们不能直接观察到火山内部发生了什么--我们必须从其他地方寻找迹象。”
He is a volcano expert at Denison University in Ohio who was not involved in the study.
他是俄亥俄州丹尼森大学的火山专家，没有参与这项研究。
Ben Andrews heads a volcano program for the U.S. government’s Smithsonian Institution.
本·安德鲁斯负责美国政府史密森学会的一个火山项目。
He also was not involved in the study.
他也没有参与这项研究。
Andrews told the AP that scientists are still not able to fully predict volcanic eruptions.
安德鲁斯告诉美联社，科学家们仍然无法完全预测火山的喷发。
But he said they can issue a “forecast” based on observations and data.
但他说，他们可以根据观察结果和数据发布“预测”。
Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts, which are based on the probability that an event might happen.
安德鲁斯将火山预报与天气预报进行了比较，天气预报是基于事件发生的可能性。
Experts say better data about past volcanic behavior can help researchers produce more detailed forecasts of future activity.
专家说，关于过去火山活动的更好数据可以帮助研究人员对未来的火山活动做出更详细的预测。
Klemetti Gonzalez added, “We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening.”
Klemetti Gonzalez补充说，“未来我们可以寻找类似的模式，并预计爆发的可能性会更高。”
I’m Bryan Lynn.
我是布莱恩·林恩。
