Old-fashioned film for cameras required mountains of silver. According to Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, photographic demand for silver has fallen by more than 60% in the past decade. Even in 2004, when the popularity of digital cameras was already well established, the photographic industry consumed 5,600 tonnes of silver, a fifth of total production. That compares with just 9% in 2009.
老式胶片需要大量使用白银。据投资银行美林公司的数据,过去十年摄影业的白银需求量下降了六成以上。在2004年数码相机已开始流行时,摄影业年白银消费量仍高达5 600吨,相当于产量的二成。到2009年已下降到9%。
New uses for the metal plugged the gap left by film. Silver is widely used in electronics, whether in buttons for TVs, in membrane switches in computer keyboards or as a coating for CDs and DVDs. But the great hope for silver is the solar-power industry. Photovoltaic cells, the technology used in 70% of solar panels, contain silver. Although other technologies that do not use silver are on the rise, heavy government subsidies are forecast to help keep the solar industry growing.
新用途填补了胶片需求萎缩留下的空白。白银被广泛用于电子器件,包括电视按钮、计算机键盘薄膜开关以及CD和DVD碟片涂层。但白银的未来需求主要存在于太阳能产业。70%的太阳能面板使用含银的光伏电池。尽管不使用白银的技术正在不断发展,但政府的大幅补贴预计仍将助太阳能产业蓬勃发展。
Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it. The same cannot be said for supply. As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world’s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines. So ramping up production is difficult. Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004. Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.
发展中国家对白银的需求可能持续上升。特别是中国,已由白银出口国变为进口国。供给方的情形则非如此。正如德意志银行的迈克尔•刘易斯指出的,白银供给中有三分之四是铜、铅和锌矿开采过程中的副产品。因此大幅增加产量并不容易。2009年,白银总供给量为27 650吨,只比2004年略高。或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也不会感到多沮丧了。