Money data raise hopes for China revival

　　Predictions of the Chinese economy’s imminent recovery haveproved overly optimistic so far this year but stabilizing inflationand strong money growth signal that the slowdown might benearing an end.
今年迄今对中国经济即将复苏的预测都证明过于乐观，但通胀企稳和货币投放量大幅增加显示，放缓可能已接近尾声。

　　Chinese consumer price inflation dipped to 1.9 per cent in September from 2 per cent in August, showing the government has room to ease monetary policy.
今年9月，中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)由8月的2%降至1.9%，这表明中国政府还有放松货币政策的空间。

　　At the weekend, China reported that in September exports rose 9.9 per cent, a stronger numberthan expected. While few analysts believe such strength will be sustainable if the European and USeconomies continue to struggle, the outlook is not as grim as initially feared.
上周末中国报告9月份出口同比增长9.9%，强于预期。尽管几乎没有分析师相信，如果欧美经济继续挣扎，这样的出口强劲程度能够持续下去，但中国增长前景已不像最初担心的那么严峻。

　　“We have become more confident that the economy is bottoming out and will pick up in themonths ahead,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura.
野村证券(Nomura)经济学家张智威表示：“我们愈发相信，中国经济正走出谷底，未来数月内将会转好。”

　　In third-quarter economic data due on Thursday China’s seventh consecutive quarterlyslowdown is expected. Underlining the weakness, the World Bank last week downgraded itsforecast for China’s full-year growth to 7.7 per cent – its lowest in more than a decade.
定于周四发布的第三季度经济数据，可能证实中国连续第七个季度增长放缓。突显这种弱势的动态之一是，世界银行(World Bank)上周将中国今年全年增长预期下调至7.7%，这是10多年来的最低值。

　　Given this background and the government’s reluctance to unleash a large fiscal stimulus, it mightseem foolhardy to predict an upturn before the end of the year. But several analysts are startingto do just that.
鉴于这样的背景，加上中国政府不愿出台大规模的财政刺激方案，预测在今年底之前经济增长开始反弹似乎有些鲁莽。但一些分析师已开始这么做了。

　　“China’s economy has continued to slow down in the past months and there is no rapid reboundin sight,” said Louis Kuijs of Royal Bank of Scotland. “However, the . . . trade data, together with theSeptember data on financing, suggest a bottoming out may be in sight.”
“过去几个月里中国经济持续放缓，目前尚无迅速复苏的可能，”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示， “然而……贸易数据和9月融资数据似乎表明，中国经济可能很快就会触底回升。”

　　Robust financing flows in September indicate that the economy could be improving. Althoughrenminbi loans were a little weaker than expected, the broader picture of credit growth was morepositive. The central bank has developed ‘total social financing’ to encompass all forms of credit, including equity and bond issuance, traditional bank loans and off-balance-sheet loans. This overallnumber shot up to Rmb1.65tn ($260bn) in September from Rmb1.24tn in August.
9月强劲的融资量表明，中国经济可能正在好转。尽管人民币贷款略逊于预期，但整体信贷增长更为积极。中国央行已启用“社会融资总量”，以纳入各种信贷，包括股票和债券发行、传统的银行贷款，以及表外贷款。9月份，社会融资总量由8月的1.24万亿元人民币上升至1.65万亿元人民币（合2600亿美元）。

　　For local governments, which have announced more than Rmb10tn of investment projects , thismoney will make it easier to get to work. Subdued consumer price pressures and falling producerprices also give the government more room to ease monetary policy without worrying aboutinflation. Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities said: “Inflationary pressure will not be a primaryconcern for the economy in the coming months. It will thus provide scope for monetary easing.”
对于已公布逾10万亿元人民币投资项目的地方政府来说，这些资金将使其更容易开工。消费者价格压力减轻，加上生产者价格下跌，给政府更多放松货币政策的空间，而无需担心通胀。瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的沈建光表示：“在未来几个月，通胀压力将不会是中国经济令人担心的主要因素。这将为放松货币政策提供空间。”