The contrasting fortunes of South Africa and Zambia in thepast month have raised awkward questions for the former.

　　上个月，南非和赞比亚的遭遇截然相反，该国面临着一些棘手的问题。

　　When Zambia tapped international capital markets inSeptember, its debut $750m bond was 15 times oversubscribed with total orders of $11.9bn – asub-Saharan record. The 10-year bond is now trading at lower yields than parts of Europe, andlower too than the average the US has paid over the past 60 years.

　　9月份，赞比亚第一次踏入国际资本市场，计划发行7.5亿美元的债券，但最终认购金额达119亿美元，超额认购15倍，创下了撒哈拉以南国家的纪录。该国十年期债券目前的收益率低于欧洲部分国家，也低于过去60年美国国债平均收益率。

　　The message is clear: there is a wall of money that is being drawn to the medium-term prospectsof Africa’s fastest growing, resource-rich economies.

　　这非常清晰地表明：由于中期发展前景看好，这个非洲增长最快、资源丰富的经济体正在吸引到大量的资金。

　　South Africa’s capital markets remain far better regulated and more liquid than others in Africa. Butthe continent’s largest economy is otherwise losing its competitive edge as a directionlessgovernment under President Jacob Zuma struggles to address industrial unrest, rising costs andgrowing social pressures. These are straining already sluggish growth and undermining SouthAfrica’s value as a gateway to the rest of Africa.

　　南非资本市场的监管水平和流动性一直优于非洲其他国家。但在应对劳资纠纷、成本上升和社会压力增大等问题时，雅各布 祖玛(Jacob Zuma)总统领导下的政府失去了方向，导致非洲最大经济体正在失去自身的竞争优势。上述问题加剧了增长疲软，破坏南非作为其他非洲国家门户的地位。

　　If South Africa presents emerging market risks for developing world returns, its relatively matureeconomy will become a less compelling prospect for investment. Or, as one London-based privateequity manager puts it, if the country’s stability is at issue, the case for leapfrogging into morelucrative African markets gets stronger.

　　如果南非对世界各国正在形成的回报而构成新兴市场才会出现的风险，那么这个相对成熟的经济的投资前景将变得不那么光明。或者正如伦敦的一位私人股本基金经理所说，如果南非的稳定性出现问题，那么投资者就更有理由离开南非、深入到收益更高的非洲市场。

　　After nearly two months of at times violent industrial unrest and more than that of policyuncertainty, investors usually drawn by South Africa’s superior legal, financial and physicalinfrastructure are beginning to think again. This is most pronounced in the mining sector, and theplatinum industry in particular, half of which is losing money. In an attempt to tough it out in theface of illegal strikes and uneconomic wage demands, mining houses have shed 15,000 jobs in thepast week.

　　投资者们通常是被南非更完善的法律、金融基本框架和硬件基础设施吸引过去的。但在将近两个月的暴力工业动荡和政策的不确定性之后，他们再次开始思考。这在采矿业、特别是铂金行业表现得最明显，该行业亏损面达到50%。为摆脱非法罢工、过高的工资要求等困境时，矿业采矿企业上周已裁掉了1.5万个就业岗位。

　　“Stability in the country was really important and justified continued investment,” says one seniorexecutive. “I am not going to start threatening capital but clearly if we don’t resolve the issue, thenhow do I justify to shareholders that I should continue to invest in South Africa?”

　　一位高级企业主管表示：“稳定对于这个国家非常重要，也是持续吸引投资的条件。我不会威胁停止投资，但显然如果解决不了稳定性问题，那么我该用什么理由说服股东们继续在南非投资呢？”

　　The sense of crisis is becoming infectious. Foreign companies have put some investment decisionson hold in other sectors in recent weeks and the kind of big deals that drew Barclays BankintoAbsa, China’s ICBCinto Standard Bankand US retailer Walmartinto South Africa’s Massmart, lookunlikely to be repeated soon.

　　危机感正在四处蔓延。最近几周，其他行业的外国公司做出了推迟投资的决定。巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank)和南非联合银行(ABSA)、中国工商银行(ICBC)和南非标准银行(Standard Bank)，以及美国零售商沃尔玛(Walmart)和南非麦什马特(Massmart)之间那种大型并购交易，短期内是不太可能再出现了。

　　As well as by domestic strife, the economic outlook is clouded by strong ties to Europe’s flaggingeconomies. The political outlook is also causing as much concern.

　　除了国内冲突，欧洲经济疲软也给南非经济前景蒙上了一层阴影。同时，政治前景也令人担忧。