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Business
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Bartleby
巴托比专栏
The magic and the minefield of confidence
自信的魔力和潜在危险
Self-doubt, hubris and everything in between.
自我怀疑、极度自负，以及二者之间的一切。
Confidence is contagious.
信心是会传染的。
Someone declaring a position with ringing certainty is more likely to inspire than someone who hedges their bets.
一个以清晰响亮的确定态度宣布一个立场的人，比那些多方讨好的人更可能有鼓舞作用。
“We may fight them on the beaches; it depends a bit on the weather,” would have been a lot less persuasive.
“我们可能会在海滩上与他们战斗，这稍微取决于天气。”如果这样说就不会那么有说服力了。（注：这句话改写了丘吉尔的作战动员演讲，原句为We shall fight on the beaches.我们将在海滩上战斗。）
What is true of Churchill’s wartime oratory is true in less dramatic circumstances.
丘吉尔战时演讲中的一些道理也适用于不那么戏剧性的情况。
A study by Matthias Brauer of the University of Mannheim and his co-authors analysed language used in letters from activist investors; it found that more confident letters were associated with more successful activist campaigns.
曼海姆大学的马蒂亚斯·布劳尔及其合著者的一项研究分析了社会活动主义投资者在信件中使用的语言，研究发现，更自信的信与更成功的社会运动相关。
Confidence confers status.
信心赋予地位。
In a study published in 2012 by Cameron Anderson of the University of California, Berkeley and his co-authors, students on an MBA course were asked to take an online survey before they started classes.
在2012年由加州大学伯克利分校的卡梅隆·安德森及其合著者发表的一项研究中，MBA课程的学生们被要求在开始上课之前参加一项在线调查。
The questionnaire asked participants to say if they recognised certain names, events and works of art; unknown to them, the options included both genuine choices, such as Maximilien Robespierre and “Pygmalion”, and made-up ones like Bonnie Prince Lorenzo and “Windemere Wild”.
问卷要求参与者们说出他们是否认识某些名字、事件、艺术作品，参与者们不知道的是，这些选项既包括真实的选择，如马克西米利安·罗伯斯庇尔和《皮格马利翁》，也包括编造的选择，如邦尼王子洛伦佐和《温德米尔荒野》。
Overconfident students who had picked more fictitious entries turned out to have the most influence on their classmates, according to end-of-term ratings.
那些选择了更多编造条目的过度自信的学生结果对同学的影响力最大，影响力根据期末评分判定。
Confidence without competence will only get you so far.
若没有能力辅助，信心只能带你走到这一步。
If you go around telling people how much you love “The One Musketeer”, you will probably not be that influential.
如果你到处跟人说你有多喜欢《一个火枪手》，你可能不会有那么大的影响力。（注：这里指大仲马的《三个火枪手》。）
But competence without confidence imposes limits, too.
但是没有自信辅助，能力也会受到限制。
Self-doubters are less likely to put themselves forward for big promotions.
自我怀疑者不太可能主动争取较大的晋升机会。
Irrational levels of self-belief are a hallmark of many successful founders.
非理性水平的自信是许多成功创业者的标志。
A recent paper by Terhi Maczulskij and Jutta Viinikainen, two Finnish academics, looked at the relationship between personality traits and employment status in Finland, and found that higher self-confidence was predictive both of entrepreneurship and of entrepreneurial success.
两位芬兰学者特希·马祖尔斯基和尤塔·维伊尼凯宁最近发表了一篇论文，研究了性格特质与职业地位在芬兰的关系，发现更高的自信心既预示着创业精神，也预示着创业成功。
As much as confidence brings rewards, however, it also brings danger.
然而，就像信心带来了回报一样，信心也带来了危险。
Work by Ulrike Malmendier of the University of California, Berkeley and Geoffrey Tate of the University of Maryland has found that overconfident bosses are much more likely to undertake acquisitions (though they are more averse to external financing, believing that it undervalues their businesses).
加州大学伯克利分校的乌尔丽克·马尔门迪尔和马里兰大学的杰弗里·泰特的研究发现，过度自信的老板更有可能进行购置（尽管他们更不愿意进行外源融资，认为这低估了自己公司的价值）。
Their acquisitions are also more likely to destroy value.
他们的购置行为也更有可能破坏企业价值。
Another paper, by Guoli Chen of INSEAD and his co-authors, looked at the relationship between CEOs’ confidence and their earnings forecasts.
由欧洲工商管理学院的陈国立及其合著者撰写的另一篇论文研究了CEO的信心与其盈利预测之间的关系。
The researchers found that bosses with inflated levels of self-belief were slower to adjust their forecasts when they proved inaccurate.
研究人员发现，过度自信的老板在预测被证明不准确时，调整预测的速度更慢。
“Put simply,” they conclude, “overconfident executives who make mistakes continue to be wrong for longer.”
“简单来说，”研究人员得出结论，“过度自信的高管如果犯了错误，他们的错误会持续更长时间。”
In an ideal world, confidence would be distributed evenly and in just the right quantities: an optimally confident person is someone secure enough to trust their own judgment and to accept that it is fallible.
在理想世界中，信心会均匀分布且数量恰到好处：一个具有最适宜水平信心的人有足够的安全感，既相信自己的判断，又接受自己的判断可能出错。
In practice, confidence is distributed very lumpily and is also susceptible to feedback loops.
在实践中，信心的分布非常不均衡，而且也容易受到反馈回路的影响。
A confident person (“I’m so great”) is liable to place even more faith in their own abilities if they have success (“I’m so great and here’s the job title to prove it”).
一个自信的人（“我太棒了”）如果成功了，就有可能对自己的能力更加自信（“我太棒了，我的职位头衔可以证明”）。
One study by Nathanael Fast of the University of Southern California and his co-authors tested people’s willingness to bet on how they would do in a difficult general-knowledge quiz.
南加州大学的纳撒尼尔·法斯特及其合著者进行的一项研究测试了人们对自己在困难的常识测验中的表现打赌的意愿。
Participants who were asked how much power they had at work before making their bets staked more (and lost more) than people of similar seniority who were only asked about their roles after deciding what to gamble.
在下赌注之前被问及在工作中有多大权力的参与者，比那些资历类似、在决定好下多少赌注之后被问及工作职责的人下注更多（并输掉更多）。
This messy picture resolves into two broad propositions for managers to reflect on.
这幅混乱的画面分解为两个广泛的命题，供管理者们思考。
First, puffed-up people need guardrails.
首先，膨胀的人需要安全护栏。
A new paper by Priscilla Kraft of WHU, a German business school, and her co-authors finds that overconfident bosses of American high-tech firms have a better record of making breakthrough innovations if they are constrained by powerful and expert boards.
德国商学院WHU的普里西拉·克拉夫特及其合著者的一篇新论文发现，美国高科技公司过度自信的老板如果受到强大且专业的董事会的约束，那么他们在实现突破性创新方面有更好的记录。
Second, self-doubters need encouragement to fulfil their potential.
第二，自我怀疑者需要鼓励来充分实现他们的潜力。
That might come from managers, mentors or even themselves.
鼓励可能来自管理者、导师，甚至他们自己。
A study by Joris Lammers of the University of Cologne and his co-authors primed some participants in a mock interview process to think of times when they had wielded power.
科隆大学的乔里斯·拉默斯及其合著者的一项研究在模拟面试过程中提前让一些参与者回想自己行使权力的时刻。
Independent evaluators who were not aware of the experiment found that they wrote more persuasive cover letters and did better in face-to-face interviews than other applicants.
独立评估人员在不知道实验的情况下发现，参与者们写的求职信比其他求职者更有说服力，在面对面的面试中也表现得更好。
Confidence can be natural.
自信可以是天生的。
It can also be a trick.
也可以是计谋。
