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Finance & economics
财经版块
Super Bowl levies
超级碗征税
Burning issue
火热问题
Trump’s tariffs will hurt American industry and global metal market.
特朗普的关税会伤害美国工业和全球金属市场。
Last year dozens of countries proposed or introduced new tariffs on steel imports.
去年，几十个国家提出或实施了新的钢铁进口关税。
Most aimed the measures at China, which they accused of flooding international markets with cheap metal.
大多数是针对中国，指责中国向国际市场倾销廉价金属。
On February 9th Donald Trump took a different approach: he picked up a scattergun instead of a sniper’s rifle.
2月9日，唐纳德·特朗普采取了不同的做法：他拿起了扫射的机关枪，而不是精准狙击的步枪。
As the president flew to the Super Bowl, he told reporters that he would announce new tariffs of 25% on aluminium and steel imports.
特朗普在飞往超级碗途中向记者表示，他将宣布对进口铝和钢铁征收25%的新关税。
On February 10th the levies duly arrived.
2月10日，征税如期到来。
Mr Trump sees tariffs as a way to incentivise foreign investment in America and boost domestic production.
特朗普将关税视为激励外国在美国投资，并促进国内生产的手段。
“It’s going to mean a lot of businesses are going to be opening in the United States,” Mr Trump said as he signed the order, which invokes domestic security as justification.
“这意味着，许多企业将在美国开办。”特朗普在签署命令时说道，该命令以国内安全为理由。
The new tariffs are due to come into effect on March 12th.
新关税将于3月12日生效。
They threaten to punish America’s allies more than its enemies—and will harm America’s own economy.
关税威胁要惩罚美国的盟友，甚至超过对敌人的惩罚，而这将会损害美国自身的经济。
America imports 25% of the steel it consumes, four-fifths of which is currently free of tariffs under agreements with Canada, Brazil, Mexico and the EU, its biggest suppliers, as well as other countries.
美国进口的钢铁占其消费量的25%，其中的五分之四根据与加拿大、巴西、墨西哥和欧盟（这几个国家是其最大的供应商）以及其他国家的协议，目前免收关税。
America also imports 70% of its aluminium, some 60% of which comes tariff-free from Canada.
美国还进口70%的铝，其中约60%来自加拿大，无需缴纳关税。
Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, a Canadian province, accused Mr Trump of “shifting goalposts”.
加拿大安大略省省长道格·福特指责特朗普“不断改变目标”。
Mr Trump’s first term offers a guide to what might happen next.
特朗普的第一个任期为第二个任期可能发生的情况提供了参考。
In 2018 the president set a tariff of 25% on steel and another of 10% on aluminium.
2018年，特朗普对钢铁征收了25%的关税，对铝征收了10%的关税。
Within months he had reached deals with most of America’s biggest suppliers and granted exemptions; the Biden administration later agreed to replace some tariffs with quotas.
几个月内，他就与美国大多数的最大供应商达成了协议，给予了关税豁免，拜登政府后来同意用配额取代部分关税。
Even blunted, the measures encouraged investment in domestic steelmaking, where capacity has risen by 6% since 2018.
即使关税措施有所减弱，这些措施仍鼓励了国内钢铁制造业的投资，自2018年以来，国内钢铁产能已增长了6%。
Yet this did not lead to a big boost in production, which remains below levels in 2019, as does the number of people employed by steel mills.
然而这并未带来产量的大幅提升，产量仍低于2019年的水平，钢厂雇佣的人数也未大幅增加。
Last year output of fresh aluminium fell to its lowest this century.
去年，美国原铝产量降至本世纪最低水平。
Even with tariffs, domestic demand simply has not been strong enough to produce a boom.
即便有关税，国内需求也一直不够强劲，无法带来繁荣。
In principle, there is now room for metal output to grow.
原则上，现在金属产量有增长的空间。
America’s raw-steel mills are used to 60% or so of capacity (80% is seen as optimum).
美国的粗钢工厂通常只使用大约60%的产能，而80%的产能被视为最佳状态。
In reality, America will still lack the expertise to produce lots of refined products at home, says Matthew Watkins of CRU, a consultancy.
CRU咨询公司的马修·沃特金斯表示，实际上，美国仍然缺乏在国内生产大量精炼产品的专业技术。
Even after Mr Trump’s first tariffs, America continued to import just as many high-value-added products—including packaging steel and seamless tubes, which contain and transport liquids—from Europe as it did before.
即使在特朗普实施首批关税之后，美国仍然像以前那样，继续从欧洲进口同样多的高附加值产品，包括用于容纳和运输液体的包装钢和无缝管。
America has few aluminium smelters; building new ones can take years.
美国现有的铝冶炼厂很少，新建冶炼厂可能需要数年时间。
In the interim it will continue to rely on imports.
在此期间，美国将继续依赖进口。
Domestic producers, which now face less competition, are giddy.
国内生产商因为现在面临的竞争减少了而感到兴奋。
The share prices of Century Aluminum and Nucor, the country’s largest aluminium- and steelmakers respectively, rose by 10% and 6% the day after Mr Trump’s announcement.
世纪铝业和纽柯钢铁分别是美国最大的铝和钢铁制造商，二者的股价在特朗普宣布征收关税后的那天分别上涨了10%和6%。
The tariffs could also provide a fillip to US Steel, an ailing giant whose acquisition by Nippon Steel, a Japanese firm, was blocked by Joe Biden.
这些关税也可能为美国钢铁公司提供助力，这是一家陷入困境的巨头，日本制铁公司对其的收购计划已被乔·拜登阻止。
But this will be more than balanced by higher prices for consumers and the fact that industrial buyers of aluminium and steel will face higher costs.
但助力将被大大抵消，因为消费者将面临更高的价格，铝和钢的工业买家也将面临更高的成本。
Ehsan Khoman and Soojin Kim of MUFG, a bank, estimate that a 25% tariff will push up the cost of a tonne of steel imported into America from $755 to over $900, negating a cost advantage that America currently enjoys over Europe.
三菱日联银行的厄桑·科曼和金素珍估计，25%的关税将使进口到美国的每吨钢材价格从755美元推高至900美元以上，这将抵消美国目前相对于欧洲的价格优势。
Sheltered from competition, domestic producers will face less pressure to keep down prices.
国内生产商受到保护，不用竞争，于是降低钢铁价格的压力会变得更小。
Mr Trump’s tariffs could have even more profound implications for global metal markets.
特朗普的关税政策可能还会对全球金属市场产生更为深远的影响。
Shares in steel firms outside America have fallen since Mr Trump’s 30,000-feet message.
自特朗普在（前往超级碗的）3万英尺高空发出信息后，美国以外的钢铁公司股价已出现下跌。
Many will no doubt try to redirect wares, pushing down prices elsewhere.
许多国家无疑会尝试把钢铁卖给其他国家，从而压低其他地方的价格。
Other countries may erect trade barriers to protect their own industries.
其他国家可能会设置贸易壁垒，保护自己的产业。
The resulting glut in aggregate capacity could, in turn, ensure that international prices remain depressed even as protected metals firms grow rustier and greedier.
由此导致的总体产能过剩可能会继续让国际钢铁价格持续低迷，即使受保护的金属公司已变得更加锈蚀和贪婪。
In America and elsewhere, Mr Trump’s metals wars will corrode the economy.
在美国及其他地区，特朗普的金属战将腐蚀经济。
