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Finance & economics
财经版块
American inflation
美国通胀
Cold weather, hot prices
寒冷天气，火热物价
Trump's tariffs are fuelling consumer worries ,which may prove self-fulfilling.
特朗普的关税引发消费者担忧，这可能是自我应验的结果。
Jerome powell’s press conferences—sometimes market-moving events—have attracted less notice of late.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会有时是震撼市场的事件，最近却较少引起关注。
With Donald Trump in the White House, the chair of the Federal Reserve faces competition for attention.
随着唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫，美联储主席在吸引关注方面就面临竞争了。
Yet a recent inflation reading has returned prices to the public eye.
然而最近的一次通胀数据再次将物价问题带回了公众视野。
In January America’s “core” consumer-price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, jumped by 5.5% at an annualised rate.
一月份，美国的“核心”消费者价格指数（剔除了波动较大的食品和能源成本后的物价）年化增长率为5.5%。
In response, Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, called this the “riskiest period for inflation policy since the early Biden administration”, after which inflation rose to its highest in four decades.
前财政部长拉里·萨默斯对此表示，这是“自拜登政府早期以来，通胀政策最危险的时期”，拜登政府中后期，通胀率升至四十年来的最高水平。
Even more worrisome is that Americans are starting to expect higher inflation.
更令人担忧的是，美国人开始预期会有更高的通胀。
In February preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey showed that the median expectation for price growth over the next year had reached 4.3%.
二月份，密歇根大学消费者调查的初步数据显示，对未来一年价格增长率预期的中位数已经达到了4.3%。
Since Mr Trump’s election, that figure has surged by 1.7 percentage points—the joint-largest three-month rise since 1979, when inflation hit double digits.
自特朗普当选以来，这一数字已飙升了1.7个百分点，这是自1979年以来并列最大的三个月涨幅，1979年的通胀率达到了两位数。
Some market measures tell a similar story.
一些市场指标也显示了同样的情况。
The one- and two-year breakeven inflation rates, based on the difference between nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasury yields, are up by 1.7 and 0.8 percentage points respectively since November.
一年期和两年期的盈亏平衡通胀率（名义国债收益率与调整通胀后的国债收益率之间的差额）自11月以来分别上升了1.7个百分点和0.8个百分点。（注：盈亏平衡通胀率反应对通胀的预期，名义国债收益率代表美元的名义收益，调整通胀后的代表美元的实际收益，二者相减即预期的通胀率。）
What is going on?
这是怎么回事？
Consumer expectations reflect two main factors: current inflation and petrol prices.
消费者预期反映两个主要因素：当前的通胀水平，以及汽油价格。
Indeed, in normal times, about 80% of variation in quarterly one-year-ahead inflation expectations is explained by just these two variables, according to a simple model we have built.
的确，在正常情况下，根据本刊构建的一个简单模型，未来一年的季度通胀预期中，约80%的变动仅由这两个变量就可以解释。
Yet when we test the model on this year’s data, it becomes unreliable.
然而，当我们用今年的数据测试该模型时，这个结论变得不可靠。
If the pre-Trump associations held, median consumer inflation expectations would be nearly a percentage point lower.
如果特朗普之前的数据关联性仍然成立，那么消费者通胀预期的中位数应该降低近一个百分点。
A similar, if less pronounced, pattern can be seen with market forecasts.
尽管不那么明显，但类似的情况也能从市场预测中看到。
This gap between expectations and the historical trend appears to be driven by Mr Trump’s tariff threats.
期望与历史趋势之间的这一差距，似乎是由特朗普的关税威胁所导致的。
Consumers’ uncertainty about inflation is elevated: the standard deviation of responses to the University of Michigan’s survey is at its highest since 1980.
消费者对通胀的不确定性被抬高：密歇根大学的调查中，消费者回答的标准差达到了自1980年以来的最高水平。（注：标准差越大，说明数据越远离平均值，波动性越大，即消费者对通胀的预期越不确定。）
Many appear to be taking the president at his word when he warns that “prices could go up somewhat short term”.
当特朗普预警说“短期内价格可能会有所上涨”时，许多人似乎相信了他的话。
Those who are opposed to tariffs expect inflation to be nearly 5% in a year’s time, yanking up the overall average.
反对关税的人预期，一年内通胀率将接近5%，这个预期大幅拉高了整体平均数值。
Consumer inflation expectations are often self-fulfilling.
消费者的通胀预期往往是自我应验的。
When workers expect higher costs in the future, they seek higher pay today.
当工作者们预期未来成本会上升时，他们就会在今天寻求更高的工资。
Meanwhile, shoppers rush to make purchases in anticipation of price rises, increasing demand and thereby pushing up prices.
与此同时，购物者们因预期物价上涨而抢购商品，这会增加需求，从而推高物价。
Recent data show that such a dynamic may be emerging.
最新数据显示，这种动态变化可能正在显现。
American wages grew at an annualised rate of 5.9% in January.
美国一月份工资年化增长率为5.9%。
More than 20% of respondents to the University of Michigan’s survey say that now is a good time to buy expensive items such as electronics or furniture, as prices are likely to climb soon.
密歇根大学的调查中，超过20%的受访者表示，现在是购买电子产品或家具等昂贵物品的好时机，因为价格可能很快就会上涨。
That is the highest share in three decades.
这是三十年来的最高比例。
Fed officials are paying close attention.
美联储官员正在密切关注。
Lorie Logan, president of the central bank’s Dallas branch, has recently warned that when inflation expectations spiral out of control, restoring price stability often comes “only at a great economic cost”.
达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛丽·洛根最近警告称，当通胀预期失控时，往往“只有在付出巨大经济代价的情况下”才能恢复价格稳定。
Current inflation uncertainty, she added, is “a reminder that expectations won’t stay anchored for ever on their own”.
她补充道，当前的通胀不确定性“提醒我们，预期不会永远自行保持稳定”。
Expectations for the long-term path of inflation are more mixed.
对长期通胀的预期更加复杂多样。
The “five-year, five-year forward” measure, which is favoured by central bankers and derived from interest-rate futures contracts, is largely unchanged.
“五年后的五年通胀预期”是央行官员青睐的指标，这一指标源自利率期货合约，目前基本保持不变。（注：“五年后的五年通胀预期”即对第6至10年的通胀预期。）
Yet other similar measures are creeping higher.
然而其他类似指标正在缓慢上升。
Market-based forecasts for the five-year breakeven inflation rate have edged up.
市场对五年期盈亏平衡通胀率的预测已略有上升。
Median five-year-ahead consumer expectations have also climbed, to 3.3%—above their peak during the inflation of recent years.
消费者对未来五年通胀预期的中位数也有所上升，达到了3.3%，超过了近年来通胀高峰期的水平。
A divide has emerged concerning long-term expectations, too.
关于长期预期也出现了分歧。
Democrats now expect a startling 4.2% average increase in prices over the next five years.
民主党人现在预计，未来五年内，物价平均增长率将为惊人的4.2%。
Research suggests that Republicans’ concerns about potential price rises during the covid-19 pandemic led to additional inflation in the years that followed.
研究表明，共和党人对新冠疫情期间价格可能上涨的担忧，引发了随后几年额外的通胀。
Mr Trump’s attacks on the Fed, insisting that Mr Powell should reduce interest rates, are almost certainly a contributing factor to Democrats’ worries this time.
而特朗普攻击美联储，坚持认为鲍威尔应该降低利率，这也几乎肯定是这次民主党人担忧通胀的一个因素。
Although the president enjoys taking on bureaucrats, he may discover that doing so can backfire.
虽然特朗普喜欢与官僚们较量，但他可能会发现，这样做会适得其反。
