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The young and the restless
年轻躁动
Meet Generation Alpha
认识一下阿尔法世代
People are curious about what’s in store after Gen Z.
人们很好奇Z世代之后是什么。
What comes after Z?
Z之后是什么？
Lots of names have been pitched for the world’s youngest generation, born roughly since 2010.
人们为世界上最年轻的一代，也就是大约2010年后出生的人，提议了许多名字。
Some are predictable, such as “iPad kids” and “Generation AI”.
有些名字是可以预料的，比如“iPad小孩”和“AI世代”。
Others are perplexing, as with “Polars”, which nods both to growing polarisation and shrinking ice caps.
其他名字则令人疑惑，比如“极地”一词，这个词既暗示日益加剧的两极分化，也指代正在缩小的极地冰盖。
One name has caught on in the English-speaking West: “Generation Alpha”.
有一个名字在西方英语世界流行开来：“阿尔法世代”。
It symbolises a fresh chapter, says Mark McCrindle, the Australian demographer behind it.
取这个名字的澳大利亚人口学家马克·麦克林德尔说，这个名字象征着一个全新篇章。
He canvassed people for ideas nearly 20 years ago; many suggested the name “Gen A”.
他在大约20年前向人们征集意见，许多人提议用“A世代”。
But rather than go back to the start of the Latin alphabet, he pivoted to the Greek one.
但麦克林德尔没有去拉丁字母表的开头，而是转向了希腊字母表。（注：A是第一个拉丁字母，阿尔法是第一个希腊字母。）
“Alpha” has recently become a buzzword.
“阿尔法”最近成了一个热词。
A slew of reports and surveys has been published about these youngsters, revealing things they are interested in (video games, sports) and not (recycling, the news).
关于这些年轻人的一系列报告和调查已经发布，揭示了他们感兴趣的事物（电子游戏、体育），以及不感兴趣的事物（废物回收、新闻）。
Punters have even predicted the future: Alphas, they say, will be the most innovative cohort yet.
赌客们甚至还预测了未来，他们说，阿尔法世代将成为最具创新性的一群人。
Such insights make for good headlines.
这样的观点很适合当新闻头条的标题。
But social scientists agree that it is too soon to identify the distinctive characteristics of a cohort that includes toddlers.
但社会科学家一致认为，现在就确定这一群体有什么鲜明特征还为时过早，毕竟其中还有刚学会走路的幼儿。
Predicting how these children will turn out as adults has “no more value than astrology”, says Bobby Duffy, a professor at King’s College London.
伦敦国王学院的教授鲍比·达菲表示，预测这些孩子成年后的表现“与占星术一样毫无价值”。
Plenty of judgments made now will be proved wrong in the future.
现在做出的许多判断将来都会被证明是错误的。
Research is largely driven by commercial interests.
研究在很大程度上是由商业利益驱动的。
Alpha is projected to be the world’s largest generation, with more than 2bn members.
预计阿尔法世代将成为全球规模最大的一代，成员数量将超过20亿。
By 2029 nearly $5.5trn will be spent on Alphas a year, predicts Mr McCrindle’s research firm.
麦克林德尔的研究公司预测，到2029年，每年将花费近5.5万亿美元在阿尔法世代身上。
That presents an opportunity for businesses, and for the marketing firms that advise “how to prepare for Gen Alpha”.
这为企业带来了机遇，也为那些教你“如何为阿尔法世代做好准备”的营销公司带来了机遇。
Restrictions around marketing to youngsters prevent many insights.
限制对年轻人进行营销阻碍了人们获取许多洞见。
Governments regulate advertisements aimed at minors, and stop their personal data from being collected without parental consent.
各国政府监管针对未成年人的广告，并禁止在未经父母同意的情况下收集他们的个人数据。
Some surveys about Gen Alpha are filled out by parents, who interpret their children’s habits.
一些关于阿尔法世代的调查是由父母填写的，父母解读了孩子的习惯。
Many of the conclusions drawn do not apply to the youngest, nappy-wearing members.
而且许多得出的结论并不适用于最年幼的、还在用尿布的成员。
There are disagreements about who exactly counts as Alpha.
关于到底哪些人算作阿尔法世代也存在分歧。
Mr McCrindle thinks the cohort should include those born between 2010 and 2024.
麦克林德尔认为，这一群体应该包括出生于2010年至2024年间的人。
Yet other firms say Gen Z only stopped being born in 2012.
然而其他公司表示，Z世代的出生截止年份应该是2012年。
Because there is no official taxonomy, one person’s Z is another’s Alpha.
因为没有官方的分类，所以一个人眼中的Z世代，可能是另一个人眼中的阿尔法世代。
But no one can deny that Alphas are in their formative years.
但无可否认，阿尔法们正处在成长期。
Attitudes and values change as people grow up and settle as they come of age.
态度和价值观会随着人们的成长而改变，并在成年后逐渐稳定下来。
It will be at least five years before Alphas are old enough for real differences to be seen between them and others, reckons Mr Duffy.
达菲认为，阿尔法们至少需要五年时间，才能成长到足以看出他们与其他人有什么真正差异。
Until then the generation will keep pundits, and parents, on their toes.
在那之前，这一代人将继续让专家们，以及父母们，保持警觉。
