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Commodity markets
大宗商品市场
Soldering on
继续焊接（注：化用soldier on，意为“保持坚挺”。）
Tin, an unloved critical metal, is enjoying a boom.
锡，一种不受喜爱的关键矿产迎来繁荣。
The metal has been used since ancient times.
这种金属从古代就开始被使用了。
From the Bronze Age until the 18th century, when it was supplanted by porcelain, tin was the main ingredient in alloys used for kitchenware.
从青铜时代开始，直到18世纪，锡一直是厨具所用合金的主要成分，18世纪后锡被瓷取代。
Yet it is also extremely modern.
然而，锡也非常现代。
Its conductive properties mean that its main use today is as a solder in the construction of electric cars, electronic circuits and solar panels—all central to automation and the energy transition.
它的导热特性意味着它在如今的主要用途是作为焊料，用于电动汽车、电子电路、太阳能电池板的制造，这些都是自动化与能源转型的核心领域。
Lately the market for tin has caught fire.
最近，锡市场变得火爆起来。
At nearly $38,000 a tonne, its price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is up by almost a third since the start of the year.
锡的价格接近3.8万美元每吨，伦敦金属交易所的锡价自今年初以来已上涨近三分之一。
It has been the best-performing metal this year—shinier even than gold.
锡是今年表现最好的金属，甚至比黄金还要耀眼。
The overall market size is tiny: some 380,000 tonnes of tin were refined last year, compared with 26m of copper, another important industrial ingredient.
锡的整体市场规模很小：去年精炼锡的产量约为38万吨，相比之下，铜作为另一种重要工业原料的产量达到2600万吨。
Three countries—China, Indonesia and Peru—accounted for 74% of global output, meaning subsequent supply disruptions have had an outsize impact.
中国、印度尼西亚、秘鲁这三个国家的锡产量占全球总产量的74%，这意味着后续出现的供应中断造成了格外巨大的影响。
In mid-March Alphamin, a firm that operates a large mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), suspended production because of attacks by insurgents.
3月中旬，阿法明公司暂停了生产，该公司在刚果（金）经营一座大型矿场，停产原因是暴动分子发动了袭击。
Indonesia is planning to take a bigger slice of profits, creating a risk that domestic output slides further.
印度尼西亚计划获取更大份额的利润，这会带来国内产量进一步下滑的风险。
It is also uncertain when output from Myanmar, once the world’s third-largest producer, might return.
目前也尚不确定，缅甸的产量何时能够恢复，缅甸曾是世界第三大锡生产国。
In 2023 the ethnic militia that controls Wa state in the north-east, which is the source of most Burmese tin, suspended mining.
2023年，控制缅甸东北部佤邦的少数民族民兵组织暂停了采矿活动，佤邦是缅甸大多数锡的产地。
Earlier this year, it indicated that production would resume soon, and started processing licences.
今年早些时候，民兵组织表示生产将很快恢复，并已开始办理采矿许可证。
But the catastrophic earthquake that hit Myanmar on March 28th might delay things.
但是3月28日发生在缅甸的灾难性地震可能会让进度推迟。
Meanwhile, demand, having grown by 11% since 2019, is expected to rise further still, setting up supply deficits for the rest of the decade.
与此同时，自2019年以来需求已增长11%，预计还将进一步上升，这将导致2020至2030年的剩余时间内供应持续短缺。
It is not clear where more tin might come from.
目前尚不清楚更多的锡可能来自哪里。
Most miners are unlisted firms that disclose little about their prospects.
大多数矿商都是未上市企业，很少披露自身的发展前景。
Investors are bullish: bets on the metal on the LME have hit unusually high levels, and the market’s illiquidity has amplified price movements.
投资者看涨：对伦敦金属交易所的锡的押注已达到异常高位，市场流动性不足又加剧了价格波动。
Niche hedge funds focused on minor metals are being joined by opportunistic generalists, as well as “momentum” traders.
专注于小金属的利基对冲基金看到投机的多种通吃投资者，以及“动量”交易者的加入。（注：动量投资即购买价格正在上升的资产，然后在价格峰顶卖出资产。）
Prices could well keep rising.
锡价很可能会持续上涨。
Indonesia has threatened to restrict exports. China could falter.
印度尼西亚已扬言要限制出口。中国的锡产量可能会下降。
But the boom will not last for ever.
但这样的繁荣不会永远持续。
Marcus Garvey of Macquarie, a bank, expects “demand destruction” as tin buyers start to use less solder.
麦格理银行的分析师马库斯·加维预计，随着锡买家开始减少焊料用量，将出现“需求萎缩”。
A reopening in the DRC or better news from Myanmar might panic investors, causing prices to crash.
刚果（金）矿产的重新开放或缅甸传出的好消息都可能引发投资者恐慌，导致价格暴跌。
The tin market is no stranger to exaggerated swings.
锡市场对于夸张的价格波动并不陌生。
During covid-19 lockdowns, booming demand for electronics sparked a rally—before reopening triggered a severe correction.
在新冠疫情封锁期间，电子产品的需求激增引发了一轮上涨行情，然后重新放开又引发了价格的剧烈回调。
The metal’s history is as turbulent as it is long.
这种金属的历史既漫长悠久，又充满动荡。
