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The flavor of the month in emerging markets is a fish-based broth with rice noodles, ginger and lemongrass called mohinga. Myanmar's national dish, it's sure to be on the menu at this week's World Economic Forum event in the former pariah state.
本月，从新兴市场飘来的香味是一种被称为“鱼板面”(mohinga)的缅甸国菜。鱼板面以鱼汤为底，加入米粉，再配以生姜和香茅等调料。本周，世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)在缅甸这个曾经被孤立的国家召开会议期间，鱼板面一定会出现在菜单上。
While Myanmar is a mouthwatering a proposition, gorging on it too soon carries a lot of risk. The country ticks many boxes in terms of potential. Its population of 60 million has almost zero cellphone penetration. It's in a logistical sweet spot between China and India and is rich in natural resources. New laws, including measures to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in some sectors, show the politicians are open to foreign investment.
虽然缅甸令人垂涎，但过于着急地“狼吞虎咽”也可能带来很多风险。缅甸在很多方面都具有潜力。这个人口6,000万的国家几乎没有手机。从物流角度看，该国处于中印之间的绝佳位置，且自然资源丰富。该国出台的多部新法律表明（比如在缅甸某些地区有法律允许外资对企业100%控股），缅甸政界人士对外国投资呈开放态度。
To say that these are the early days in a frontier economy is an understatement: There is virtually no ATM network and very few commercial bank branches, for instance.
如果你认为这是一个“拓荒”经济体的起步阶段，那么你还低估了缅甸的落后：该国几乎没有自动柜员机(ATM)网络，商业银行设立的分支机构也少之又少。
Foreigners have duly rushed in to fill a business and economic vacuum. Growth in foreign direct investment is soaring. Executives from giant global corporations in finance, consumer goods, accounting and construction now regularly fill Myanmar's meager hotel space. The cost of real estate in the center of the main business hub, Yangon, is on a par with that of Bangkok, which is far more developed.
不出所料，外国人大量涌入，以填补该国在商业和经济上的真空。外商直接投资(FDI)的增速飙升。金融、消费品、会计和建筑业的跨国大型企业的高管如今常常将缅甸本来就不多的酒店房间住满。仰光市中心主要商业枢纽的房地产成本已经可以和曼谷比肩，而曼谷要比仰光发达得多。
But investors in Myanmar should heed lessons from Vietnam, which opened up to the world in a similar fashion two decades ago. The failure rate for early investors in that market may have been as high as 90%, says Don Lam, chief executive of Vinacapital, one of Vietnam's largest asset managers.
但进入缅甸的投资者应该注意吸取越南的经验教训。20年前越南也曾以类似方式对世界开放。越南最大的资产管理机构之一Vinacapital的首席执行长Don Lam说，进入越南的早期投资者的失败率可能高达90%。
Too much foreign capital chased too few potential partners or businesses with any track record. Also, there was too much focus on the impact of rising incomes on consumer-goods sales. The outcome, Mr. Lam says, was a lot of investment in risky, green-field projects, or Western-style consumer-goods businesses that didn't have a strong enough customer base for another decade.
目前在缅甸，有太多的外国资本在追逐潜在合作伙伴或企业，而有任何过往记录可查的企业又太少。另外，对于收入上升对消费品销售的影响的关注又太多。Don Lam说，这造成的后果就是有大量投资进入风险较大的绿地投资项目或西式消费品企业。这些企业要再过10年才会拥有足够强大的客户基础。
Foreign investment in Vietnam surged between 1988 and 1995, but began slowing markedly thereafter, partly because high costs and poor infrastructure stymied returns, according to the International Monetary Fund. And while the Asian Financial Crisis squeezed foreign interest across the region in the late 1990s, foreign investment was slower to recover in Vietnam than in neighboring countries, the IMF says.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，1988年至1995年，涌入越南的外国投资数量激增，但95年之后开始明显放缓。部分原因是高昂的成本和糟糕的基础设施严重影响了投资回报。虽然上世纪90年代末发生的亚洲金融危机降低了外国资本对这一地区的兴趣，但IMF的数据显示，和邻国相比，外商投资在越南的恢复速度更慢。
Myanmar's potential could attract about $170 billion in capital inflows between now and 2030, McKinsey estimates. A healthy appetite among foreign investors would surely help transform the economy. But those who put money into Myanmar too soon may well find their first taste ultimately turns sour.
麦肯锡(McKinsey)估计，从现在起到2030年之间，缅甸的潜力能够吸引约1,700亿美元的资本流入。外国投资者的强劲胃口肯定有助于缅甸经济转型。但那些过快将资金投入缅甸的人很可能会发现他们的尝试最终令人失望。
