Xi Guohua will not have to join any queues to get his iPhone. The China Mobile chairman was given one by Apple chief Tim Cook. Friday sees the launch of the iPhone on the Chinese network, with its mind-boggling 750m subscriber base. But the iPhone’s moment in the world’s biggest market comes just as the local competition is gearing up. If, as Apple’s (and Samsung’s) margins suggest, even high-end smartphones are becoming less profitable, what are the likes of Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi thinking?
奚国华用不着排队就得到了一台iPhone。这位中国移动(China Mobile)董事长刚得到苹果(Apple)首席执行官蒂姆?库克(Tim Cook)送的一部iPhone。本周五，中国移动版iPhone正式发售，而该公司用户总数是惊人的7.5亿。不过，iPhone在世界最大的市场迎来激动人心的时刻之际，正是本土竞争加剧之时。如果连高端智能手机的利润率都会下降的话——就像苹果和三星(Samsung)的利润率所体现的那样，那么像华为(Huawei)、联想(Lenovo)和小米(Xiaomi)这样的生产商，又该作何感想呢？
Combined, China’s top 10 makers expect to shift more than 400m phones this year, a 50 per cent increase on 2013. About 440m smartphones will be sold in China in 2014, according to Credit Suisse – a 25 per cent jump. That includes Apple, Samsung and other top-tier makers, implying the home brands must also be aiming for other emerging markets, where sales are expected to rise a third, to 470m Chinese makers often have high-end ambitions, but their bread and butter is in the low- and mid-range phones that rule emerging markets.
2014年，中国十大手机制造商预计总共将销售手机逾4亿部，比2013年增长50%。据瑞信(Credit Suisse)预测，中国今年的智能手机销量将达到约4.4亿部，同比增长25%，其中苹果、三星和其他第一梯队制造商会占据一些份额，意味着中国本土品牌也必须瞄准其他新兴市场，这些市场的手机销量预计将增加三分之一，达到4.7亿部。中国制造商往往有生产高端手机的抱负，但它们赖以为生的却是在新兴市场占主导地位的低端和中端产品。
Plentiful demand is one thing, making money is another. Apple and Samsung profit from using their scale and brands to cut costs and demand top dollar. Low-end phones cost far less to make. The cost of producing a so-so brand 4.7’’ screen phone could be as low as $94, Credit Suisse reckons, compared with $266 for Samsung’s Galaxy S4. But that cheap phone sells for $122, versus $554 for Samsung’s smash hit. That is a 10 times difference in gross profit. Sure, commoditisation will squeeze Samsung and Apple, but it will not entirely kill their pricing power. If consumers happily pay premiums for cigarettes and branded water, it is not hard to see value in a strong phone brand.
庞大的需求是一回事，赚钱是另一回事。苹果和三星的盈利法宝是利用规模和品牌来削减成本，并让消费者为其产品付尽可能高的价钱。低端手机的成本低得多。瑞信估计，生产一部4.7英寸、品牌一般的手机，最低只需94美元。相比之下，三星Galaxy S4的生产成本是266美元。而三星这款热卖机的售价是554美元，前面那款便宜机仅售122美元，二者毛利相差10倍。当然，产品大众化会挤压三星和苹果的利润，但并不会完全使其丧失定价能力。既然消费者会乐于为香烟和品牌饮用水支付高价，一个强大的手机品牌的价值也就不难明白。
Chinese makers could try taking on Samsung and Apple by building rival brands – but ask HTC about the risks in that. The jump in this year’s shipments implies they are instead seeking scale in order to squeeze suppliers and grind out profits. It is the better plan, but it will not make much money, either.
中国制造商可以通过建立竞争性品牌来挑战三星和苹果——但请向宏达电(HTC)请教这样做的风险。今年的出货量继续大增，表明这些制造商宁愿追求规模，以便挤压供应商，榨取更多利润。这是个更好的计划，但也不会让它们赚很多。
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