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China’s surprise interest rate cut late on Friday will not reverse the trend of slower growth and tighter credit, analysts said, describing the move as being more akin to fine tuning than a shift in policy.
中国在上周五傍晚出人意料地降低了利率，但分析师认为，此举不会逆转中国增长放缓和信贷收紧的趋势，并称此举更类似于微调，而不是政策转向。
Equity markets rallied both at home and overseas on news that the People’s Bank of China had lowered its benchmark deposit and lending rates by 0.25 and 0.40 percentage points respectively. But investors betting on broad-based monetary stimulus from Chinese policymakers are likely to be disappointed.
中国央行(PBoC)将基准存款利率和基准贷款利率分别降低0.25和0.40个百分点的消息，令国内外股市都为之一振。然而，那些将筹码押在中国决策者将推出大面积货币刺激举措的投资者们，很可能要失望了。
After a series of targeted stimulus measures earlier this year that largely failed to lower real borrowing costs, the latest move shifts the dial another notch towards easing.
今年早些时候，中国推出了一系列定向刺激举措，但这些举措在很大程度上并未降低实际借贷成本。如今，最新举措向着宽松的方向又前进了一步。
“This really isn’t a change in the direction of monetary policy, so it’s hard to give a reaction that can shake heaven and earth,” Wu Jinglian, a senior government economist who has advised Chinese presidents dating back to Deng Xiaoping, said at a conference on Saturday.
周六，资深官方经济学家吴敬琏在一次会议上表示，最新举措并不意味着货币政策方向的转变，因此很难对经济产生全方位影响。早在邓小平时代，吴敬琏就已开始为中国最高领导人提供咨询意见。
Economists say the rate cut will help lower costs for mortgages and high-rated corporate borrowers but cannot reverse the decline in investment and factory output – key drivers of the economy – unless it is coupled with official directives to increase loan volumes.
经济学家表示，这次降息将有助于降低抵押贷款成本及高评级企业的贷款成本。然而，如果不辅以扩大贷款规模的行政指令，这次降息可能无法逆转投资和工厂产出这两大关键经济推动因素的下滑趋势。
Central bank data show overall credit growth through the first 10 months of 2014 is running Rmb1.27tn ($207bn) behind last year’s pace.
央行数据显示，2014年头10个月，中国总体信贷增长幅度比去年减少了1.27万亿元人民币（合2070亿美元）。
Analysts have debated whether the decline is due mainly to intentional efforts by the PBoC to rein in debt, slack credit demand from corporate borrowers faced with declining sales, or risk aversion by financial institutions worried over rising bad loans.
对导致这一下降的主要原因，分析师之间还存在争论。有人认为，它是中国央行有意遏制债务、降低企业信贷需求的结果，因为这些企业借款方正面临销售不断下滑的窘境。还有人却认为，信贷增幅的下降，主要原因是金融机构因担心坏债不断攀升而产生避险情绪。
Whatever the reason, there is little sign that the PBoC is prepared to pressure banks to aggressively push loans out the door.
不论信贷增长趋缓的原因是什么，没什么迹象表明中国央行准备强迫银行大力放贷。
“Given the government’s stated intention to focus on long term structural issues, in terms of growth, we suspect that policies will likely remain behind the curve,” David Cui, equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note on Monday.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)股票策略师崔伟(David Cui)周一在一份报告中写道：“考虑到中国政府曾表态要着力解决长期的结构性问题，我们怀疑促增长政策的出台可能仍会落后于经济周期。”
“The risk to this assessment is if, contrary to our expectation, the government announces more cuts and/or other major growth boosting measures reasonably soon.”
“这一评估面临的风险是，与我们的预期相反，中国政府在足够短的时间内公布更多降息措施或其他推动增长的重要措施。”
The impact of the rate cut could be further softened by banks’ unwillingness to drop lending rates in line with the PBoC’s new benchmark, which is not binding on lenders.
此外，由于银行不需强制执行基准贷款利率，如果银行不愿按新的央行基准利率降低贷款利率，可能会进一步缓冲此次降息措施的影响。
The PBoC paired its rate cut with a parallel move giving doubling lenders’ margin of flexibility to offer higher deposit rates above the official benchmark. That could leave effective deposit rates largely unchanged, as the impact of the lower benchmark is cancelled out by the wider flexibility banks have to exceed it.
在降息的同时，中国央行还推出了配套措施，将各银行存款利率相对官方基准利率的自由上调幅度扩大了一倍。这一措施可能会让实际存款利率在很大程度上保持不变，因为尽管基准利率降低了，但银行的自由上调幅度增大了。
For one-year deposits, the benchmark rate was lowered from 3 per cent to 2.75 per cent. But a 20 per cent margin above the new rate, equal to 3.3 per cent, is identical to the 10 per cent margin permitted above the previous, lower rate.
比如，对于一年期存款，基准利率从3%下调至2.75%。然而，相对2.75%利率20%的上浮会得到3.3%的利率，与此前3%利率上浮10%得到的利率相同。
With their funding costs largely unchanged, banks will have an incentive to keep loan rates high in a bid to preserve margins.
由于银行的资金成本基本没变，为保证利润率，银行会更愿意把贷款利率保持在高位。
In the initial days following the cut smaller banks have moved first to take advantage of the new freedom on deposit rates. But larger banks are likely to follow suit eventually, analysts say, meaning effective deposit rates could remain largely unchanged in spite of the lower benchmark.
降息举措的最初几天，规模较小的银行会率先利用新的存款利率自由度。不过，分析师表示，规模较大的银行最终可能也会采取同样措施。也就是说，尽管基准利率降低了，实际存款利率可能会在很大程度上保持不变。
“Our bank adjusted its own benchmarks in line with the central bank but hasn’t issued new rules on how actual loan rates should float above or below. For now we’ll keep using the old guidelines,” said a client manager at Bank of China in Shanghai.
中国银行(Bank of China)上海分行一位客户经理表示：“我行依照央行基准调整了自己的基准利率，不过并未就实际贷款利率应该上浮还是下调发布新的规定。目前我们依然在执行旧的规定。”
