Many forces have fueled the bull market we have witnessed over the past six years, but share repurchases are at the top of the list. Driven by low interest rates and an economy rife with uncertainty, Corporate America is awash with cash. Rather than spend that money on internal investments that might not pan out, companies have instead decided to return that money to shareholders by buying their own stock.
我们在过去六年看到的牛市是在多种力量作用下形成的，但股票回购是其中最重要的因素。由于低利率和充满不确定感的经济环境，美国公司手握大量现金。各大公司觉得，与其把钱花在未必能成功的内部投资上，还不如通过回购股票来回馈股东。
The debate over whether it’s better for firms to send money to shareholders in the form of buybacks or in the form of dividends has gone on for decades. But we can all agree that companies ramping up their share repurchasing has buoyed stock prices. This chart from Bianco Research shows how buybacks have soared since the end of the recession and are now close to all-time highs:
回购股票和支付股息，究竟哪一种是更好的回馈方式？这个争论已经持续了好几十年。但我们都同意，各大公司一窝蜂地回购股票，已经显著地提振了股价。这张由研究公司Bianco Research制作的图表，为我们展示了回购股票是如何导致股价在经济衰退结束后持续飙升，如今已接近历史最高点的。
You can view this trend as a good sign or a worrying one. On the one hand, companies should only buy their shares when they are confident that the stock has a lot of room to grow, as buying overpriced shares is a terrible use of shareholder money. But, as Will Becker, an analyst with Behind the Numbers, puts in his latest report to clients, history shows that executives and directors plan buybacks at the worst times. He writes:
这一趋势既可以被解读为好的迹象，也可以被看作一种令人担忧的状况。一方面，一家公司只应该在非常确定自己的股票有很大涨幅空间时回购股票，因为购买价格过高的股票可不是利用股东金钱的明智方式。但正如Behind the Numbers公司分析师比尔?贝克尔最近为客户撰写的报告所指出的那样，历史显示高管和董事们往往会选择最差的回购时机。他写道：
Buybacks are typically initiated in good times when stock prices are high…. Corporations end up purchasing their own stock at inflated prices, only to have many of these same shares then redeemed by management as compensation committees increasingly hand out these perks in good times.
回购往往发生在经济景气，股价已经很高的时候。公司最终会以虚高的价格买回自己的股票，但鉴于越来越多的薪酬委员会在经济景气时分发这些红利，所以这些股票有很大一部分最终只是被管理层赎回了。
Nevertheless, it appears that Corporate America plans to stick to its buyback strategy. Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kosten says that share repurchases will increase by 18% this year, to more than $700 billion. Becker, however, thinks there’s reason to believe that 2015, at least for some companies, might be the year the good ship buyback finally runs ashore.
然而，美国公司似乎仍然计划坚持回购策略。高盛公司证券策略师大卫?科斯滕表示，今年股票回购的价值还将增长18%，达到7000亿美元以上。不过贝克尔认为，有理由相信2015年至少会有一些公司的美好回购计划最终搁浅。
Writes Becker, “Frankly we believe free cash flow for many of these companies could soon encounter a number of headwinds, thereby making it more difficult for them to expand their buyback programs.”
贝克尔写道：“坦白说，我们认为许多公司的现金流很快就将遭遇困境，这会让他们扩大回购的举动变得十分艰难。”
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