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Asian central bank watchers are having a tough time deciding where to look.
那些关注亚洲央行的人们，眼下很难决定到底该关注哪一家。
Yesterday, South Korea became the latest to surprise the market with a rate cut, following in the footsteps of Thailand, China and India — all of which have loosened policy unexpectedly in the past two weeks alone. Indonesia’s February move to lower borrowing costs is also still fresh in the mind.
昨天，韩国成为继泰国、中国和印度之后，最新一个宣布降息令市场震动的国家。在过去短短两周内，上述三国都出人意料地推出了宽松政策。而此前印尼于2月份的降息仍历历在目。
There are some common threads that help explain Asia’s easing path — such as falling inflation, stuttering growth and fluctuations in global currency markets. But country-specific issues are also playing their part.
一些常见原因能够解释亚洲的宽松政策路线——包括通胀率下跌、增长遇阻以及全球货币市场的波动。不过，各国也面临各自的具体问题。
“There are some concerns about growth and exchange rate competitiveness”, said Krystal Tan at Capital Economics. “Now that inflation is low, it’s given policy makers an opportunity to act.”
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Krystal Tan表示：“存在着一些对增长和汇率竞争力的担忧。既然通胀现在这么低，政策制定者就有了行动的机会。”
For South Korea, the tumbling yen has prompted questions about export costs, while domestic growth has been disappointing. This week’s cut takes benchmark rates down to 1.75 per cent, a record low for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
对韩国来说，在国内增长令人失望之际，日元暴跌引发了有关韩国出口成本的问题。本周韩国将基准利率降至1.75%，对这个亚洲第四大经济体来说，这是个创纪录的低点。
Thailand, too, is worried about growth, with exports and private consumption both weaker than expected at the start of the year. That the baht has held up better than some other Asian currencies against the rising dollar may also have played into the central bank’s thinking.
由于年初出口和私人消费双双低于预期，泰国也同样担心增长的问题。相对于不断走强的美元，泰铢的表现比部分其他亚洲货币要坚挺一些，这可能也是泰国央行考虑的因素之一。
For India, falling inflation has presented an opportunity to give the economy a helping hand, as the Modi-led government looks to get the country back on track as quickly as possible.
对印度来说，在莫迪(Modi)领导的政府寻求令该国尽快重返正轨之际，不断下跌的通胀为刺激经济创造了机遇。
In contrast, Chinese policy makers have been growing nervous about the prospect of outright deflation, with a contraction in producer prices now entering its third year. Growth is stalling, the housing market is still in a funk and the renminbi, on a trade-weighted basis at least, is at a record high. Looser policy may also be designed to balance tighter liquidity caused by accelerating capital outflows.
相比之下，中国政策制定者则是出于对全面通缩前景的日益担忧——中国生产者价格已开启了第三个下滑之年。增长陷入停滞，楼市仍然低迷，人民币汇率则处于前所未有的高点——至少从贸易加权的角度来说是如此。除上述因素以外，更宽松的政策也可能意在平衡资金外流加速导致的流动性紧张。
Economists expect more cuts from some countries — most likely India and China — while others are tipped to stay put.
经济学家预计，部分国家（最有可能的是印度和中国）将采取更多降息举措，而其他国家则应该会维持原状。
The Philippines, where growth has remained strong, will have one eye on its high rate of credit growth, while recent currency weakness in oil-exporting Malaysia makes lower rates a less attractive option, even as the economy slows.
增长保持强劲的菲律宾将会密切关注其信贷的高速增长。对于石油出口国马来西亚来说，即便经济放缓，该国货币近期的疲软也降低了降息的吸引力。
With rates now at record lows and household debt levels already high in both South Korea and Thailand, further moves are not expected there either.
至于韩国和泰国，由于利率已经处于创纪录低点，居民债务水平也已经很高，预计这两国也不会进一步降息。
“Unless recession risk escalates, we don’t see a clear path for another rate cut,” said Citibank economists following the Bank of Thailand’s move this week.
在泰国央行(Bank of Thailand)本周降息之后，花旗银行(Citibank)经济学家曾表示：“除非衰退风险加剧，否则我们看不到（泰国）进一步降息的明确信号。”
Policy makers across the region will also be mindful of what happened in the spring of 2013, when Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, first used the word “tapering”. This signal that quantitative easing had peaked prompted rapid capital flight from emerging markets, with India and Indonesia both forced into emergency rates rises to steady their currencies.
亚洲政策制定者还将铭记2013年春季发生的事。当时，时任美联储(Fed)主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)首次使用了“逐步缩减QE规模”(tapering)一词。这一量化宽松见顶的信号曾导致资本迅速逃离新兴市场，印度和印尼两国都曾被迫因此紧急提升利率，以稳定本国货币的汇率。
