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The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate rise risks triggering a jolt to bond markets that could surpass the turmoil the central bank inadvertently set off in 2013, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称，美联储(Fed)的首次加息举措可能会触发债券市场震荡，其程度可能会超过这家央行2013年在不经意间引发的那场动荡。
José Viñals, the director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, warned of a “super taper tantrum” and spiking yields as the US central bank gets nearer to lifting rates from near-zero levels. “This is going to take place in uncharted territory,” he said in an interview.
IMF货币和资本市场部门负责人乔斯•维纳尔斯(José Viñals)警告称，随着美联储趋向于从接近零的水平加息，市场将出现“超级缩减恐慌”，债券收益率将飙升。他在一次采访中表示：“这将发生于未知领域。”
In its Global Financial Stability Report, out yesterday, the IMF argued that risks had not only risen worldwide, but that they had rotated to parts of the financial world that were harder to monitor — including to the non-bank sector.
IMF在昨日发布的《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中提出，风险不仅已在全球各地上升，而且已转向一些更难监督的金融领域，包括非银行领域。
Among the key worries are “severe challenges” brewing in the EU life insurance sector amid plunging interest rates in the region. Many policies are offering generous return guarantees that are “unsustainable” in a prolonged low-interest rate environment, the IMF warned, highlighting German and Swedish firms.
一个重要的担忧是在欧盟(EU)利率大幅下滑之际，该地区寿险行业正在酝酿“严峻挑战”。IMF警告称，很多保单在长期低利率环境下提供“不可持续”的慷慨回报保证，特别是德国和瑞典的寿险公司。
Speculation about the impact of the first Fed rise in nearly a decade is dominating global markets. As things stand, markets are pricing in a lower trajectory for rate increases than Fed officials in the face of signals from the central bank that “lift-off” is looming this year.
关于美联储近10年来首次加息影响的猜测，目前笼罩着全球市场。就眼下而言，面对美联储释放的信号（今年将大幅加息），市场目前计入的加息轨迹低于美联储官员的预测。
In the report, the IMF said a sudden rise of 100 basis points in 10-year Treasury yields was “quite conceivable” once the market woke up to the possibility of the first rise in rates in nearly a decade. “Shifts of this magnitude can generate negative shocks globally, especially in emerging market economies,” it said.
IMF在报告中称，一旦市场清醒地意识到近10年来首次加息的可能性，10年期美国国债收益率突然上升100个基点是“相当可能的”。IMF表示：“如此大幅度的变化可能对全球造成负面冲击，特别是对新兴市场经济体。”
Higher US interest rates could expose particular vulnerabilities in emerging markets where companies have issued large amounts of debt in dollars, the IMF said, adding that between 2007 and 2014 debt had grown faster than gross domestic product in all major emerging markets. Mr Viñals also laid out a scenario which he called a “Yellen conundrum” in which the central bank is forced to tighten policy more sharply than planned because longer-term interest rates do not respond to rises in the Fed’s target range. “This exit is a lot more complex to figure out, and this is behind the uncertainty that there is in the markets,” he said.
IMF表示，美国加息可能暴露出企业发行了大量美元债务的新兴市场的特别脆弱性。IMF补充称，2007年至2014年，所有大型新兴市场的债务增速都超过国内生产总值(GDP)。维纳尔斯还提出了他所称的“耶伦难题”(Yellen conundrum)：美联储被迫以比计划更大的幅度收紧货币政策，因为较长期利率没有对美联储目标区间上调作出反应。他表示：“把握这次的退出要复杂得多，这是目前市场不确定性背后的原因。”
