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Anyone with an equity fund that tracks the S&P 500 has something close to 10 per cent of their investment in commodities companies, such as oil and gas producers or the miners of metals and minerals. For anyone who owns the FTSE 100, the figure is more than 20 per cent, largely because BP and Shell dominate the UK stock market.
任何一个拥有一只追踪标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的股票基金的人，都会有近10%的投资配置到大宗商品公司，例如油气生产商或者金属和矿产企业。对于任何追踪富时100指数(FTSE 100)的基金，这个比例超过了20%，主要是因为英国石油(BP)和壳牌(Shell)在英国股市举足轻重。
Yet an increasing number of financial advisers suggest that investors should also carve out an additional piece of their portfolio to invest directly in commodities.
然而，越来越多的理财顾问提出，投资者还应在自己的投资组合中拨出一块，直接投资于大宗商品。
The advice is controversial but for many people who are considering moving beyond a “plain vanilla” portfolio of stocks and bonds, commodities will be an obvious option to consider.
这种建议颇具争议，但对于很多正考虑超越由股票和债券组成的“普通”投资组合的人，大宗商品是值得考虑的一个明显选择。
The list of tradeable commodities literally runs from A to Z, from aluminium to zinc. Crude oil and natural gas are among the most important to the global economy, but energy investors can also pick propane or ethanol or heating oil. Agricultural staples include corn and coffee and cocoa, among many more. And there are a good half-dozen industrial metals to trade, and precious ones, too, including the speculator’s favourite: gold.
从首字母为A的铝到首字母为Z的锌，可交易的大宗商品真的很多。原油和天然气跻身于对全球经济最重要的大宗商品之列，但能源投资者也可以选择丙烷、乙醇或取暖油。农产品包括玉米、咖啡和可可豆等等。还有不少于6种工业金属可以交易，还有贵金属，包括投机者的最爱：黄金。
Just about the only characteristic in common across this diverse list is volatility. Commodities do not pay dividends or generate earnings like company shares and they do not promise to pay interest like a bond. Without these anchors, their price swings wildly in response to changing assumptions about supply and demand.
这么多大宗商品的唯一共同特点是波动性。大宗商品不像公司股票那样派息或产生盈利，也不像债券那样承诺支付利息。在没有这些支撑的情况下，它们的价格会大幅波动，回应不断变化的供需假设。
As a reminder, the price of a barrel of crude oil plunged by 50 per cent in the space of a few months in 2014 after a subtle change of policy in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producing nations.
提醒一下，2014年，在全球最大产油国之一沙特阿拉伯微调政策后，油价在短短几个月期间下挫50%。
Political developments are far from the only things an investor has to monitor. Changing global trade patterns, currency fluctuations, recessions, wars, even the weather, whose occasional droughts and deluges can ruin an entire year’s agricultural crop — any of these could send prices soaring or crashing.
政治动向远非投资者必须关注的唯一因素。不断变化的全球贸易模式、汇率波动、经济衰退、战争甚至天气（偶尔的干旱和洪水可能糟蹋全年的农业收成），这些因素中的任何一个都可能导致价格飙升或暴跌。
And after more than a decade when China’s industrialisation, and its insatiable demand for raw materials, seemed to justify ever higher commodities prices, the whole asset class slumped during the 2008 financial crisis and has not recovered old highs.
在10多年期间，中国工业化及其对原材料的旺盛需求似乎证明较高原材料价格合理，但2008年金融危机期间所有大宗商品价格一落千丈，至今没有恢复过去的高点。
Counterintuitively, despite all that volatility, adding commodities to a portfolio may help an investor sleep at night. The factors that cause commodities to swing around are often independent of those that move the equity and fixed income markets, which means that commodities might well be a cushion in an investor’s portfolio during times when share prices or bonds are going down. That, at least, is the theory espoused by financial advisers who recommend a 5 or 10 per cent allocation to the asset class.
与直觉相反的是，尽管存在巨大波动性，但将大宗商品加入投资组合可能会有助于投资者睡个好觉。导致大宗商品波动的因素，往往与那些影响股市和固定收益市场走势的因素没有关联。这意味着，大宗商品很有可能会在股价或债券价格下跌之际给投资者的投资组合提供缓冲。至少这是理财顾问们推介的理论，他们建议将5%至10%的资产配置于大宗商品。
It has become easier to access the commodities markets. Buying a tanker-load of oil or a warehouse stuffed with grain has always been off limits to all but professional trading companies. The traditional way for individuals to invest was to set up a brokerage account and to venture into the futures markets. This is still the spiciest way to trade today; the leverage built into these derivatives contracts means that one can make big money from relatively small changes in a commodity’s price, but brokers can also demand large sums of money to cover potential losses and bad bets can go very sour, very quickly.
进入大宗商品市场已变得更为容易。以往，除了专业贸易公司以外，购买整整一艘油轮的石油或整整一个仓库的谷物是投资者难以企及的。个人投资的传统途径是开立一个经纪账户，进入期货市场。这仍是目前最刺激的交易方式；此类衍生品合约的杠杆性意味着，投资者可以通过一种大宗商品相对较小的价格变动大赚一笔，但券商也可能会要求追加巨额保证金以覆盖潜在的亏损，而押注失手可能很快让投资者血本无归。
More conservative investors can now choose from a burgeoning number of commodities funds, including scores of exchange traded funds that can be as easily bought or sold as shares.
较为保守的投资者现在可以从数量越来越多的大宗商品基金中选择，包括很多交易所交易基金(ETF)，它们可以像股票那样方便地买入或卖出。
The ETF.com database shows 149 such funds in the US alone, ranging from single-commodity funds like the SPDR Gold ETF to the popular PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, which mimics the price movement of a broad basket of commodities.
ETF.com数据库显示，仅在美国就有149只此类基金，从SPDR Gold ETF等单一大宗商品基金，到颇受欢迎的跟踪一篮子大宗商品价格走势的德意志银行大宗商品指数追踪基金(PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund)。
Be wary of some pitfalls, however. The performance of many of these ETFs can diverge markedly from the headline price of a commodity — especially over the long run, if they are investing in futures contracts rather than buying the underlying commodity and sticking it in a warehouse.
不过要当心一些隐患。很多ETF的表现可能会显著偏离大宗商品价格，尤其是从长期而言——原因是它们投资于期货合约，而不是购买基础大宗商品并将其储存在仓库。
Actively managed mutual funds are a popular alternative, and Pimco and Fidelity are among the industry titans with commodities offerings. Investors will find that professionally managed, diversified funds inevitably come with higher fees.
主动型共同基金是颇受欢迎的另一个选择，太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)和富达(Fidelity)是其中两家提供大宗商品投资产品的行业巨擘。投资者会发现，专业管理且投资多元化的基金不可避免地会收取较高费用。
Gold retains a unique place in the commodities pantheon, even though it is decades since governments and central banks stopped using the metal as backing for paper currencies. Such is humankind’s historic attachment to gold, its fans argue, it can be counted on to retain its value even while currencies decline and empires fall. Certainly it remains a go-to investment in a financial crisis, and investors who see inflation around the corner will always consider gold a hedge against the declining real value of other assets.
尽管各国政府和央行在几十年前就停止把黄金用作纸币的后盾了，但黄金仍在大宗商品领域占据独特地位。钟爱黄金投资的人士表示，人类对黄金的历史眷恋意味着，即便在货币贬值和帝国衰亡之际，人们也可以指望黄金保值。确实，黄金仍是金融危机期间的首选投资，认为通胀即将出现的投资者永远可以用黄金对冲其他资产的实际价值下滑。
The two largest commodities ETFs are both gold funds, and no other investment arouses such passionate debate, but the precious metal’s price remains as slippery as any other commodity. Gold — indeed like all commodities — belongs in the category of speculative trades rather than long-term investments.
规模最大的两只大宗商品ETF都是黄金基金，其他任何投资都不会引发如此情绪激动的辩论，但金价仍像其他大宗商品那样捉摸不定。黄金（乃至所有大宗商品）属于投机交易，而非长期投资。
