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Little interest in the next iPhone's purported Force Touch feature combined with weak demand in China could sink iPhone sales in the fourth quarter, says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
分析师郭明池称，下一代iPhone的压感触控功能(Force Touch)在中国遭到了冷遇，国内需求低，这很可能会导致iPhone第四季度销量下滑。
Reportedly slated for the iPhone 6S, Force Touch makes the screen pressure-sensitive so it responds to how you press on the surface and is already in use on the the MacBook and Apple Watch. But Force Touch has failed to generate much excitement among MacBook and Apple Watch owners, Kuo said in an investors note picked up on Tuesday by Taiwanese news site Apple Daily. So Force Touch may not be "the most significant change to the iPhone's interface to date" that the analyst claimed it would be in an April report, according to Kuo's latest opinion.
据称，具备压感触控功能的iPhone 6S可以感知用户按压表面的不同力度，从而调出不同的对应功能。而这项技术已经在MacBook和Apple Watch上得到了应用。但是本周二的台湾苹果日报中刊登了郭明池的这样一番评价：压感触控并没有在MacBook和Apple Watch的用户激起很大的反响。与今年4月份郭明池爆料iPhone 6S将支持Force Touch的时候态度明显不同，他现在并不认为压感触控是“苹果iOS迄今为止最大的变革”了。
Expected to be released in September, the next iPhone comes in an "off-year" for Apple. That means the new handset will likely offer a few enhancements and one significant new feature. But this year's phone won't be considered a major upgrade as was last year's big-screened iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. If Force Touch doesn't prove to be a killer feature for the new iPhone, existing iPhone users may see little reason to upgrade. That could push overall iPhone sales down in the fourth quarter, according to Kuo.
预计在九月份发布的下一代iPhone可谓是“生不逢时”。一般来说，新机除了会做一些性能提升外，更重要的是会带来一项重要的新功能。但是今年的iPhone相比去年发布的大屏幕iPhone6和 IPhone6 Plus而言，恐怕不足以吸引用户升级购买。郭明池认为，如果Force Touch对于新的iPhone来说确实不能算作杀手级特性的话，iPhone手机的当前用户几乎没有理由购买新机，这也将导致iPhone的销量在第四季度直线下跌。
Another factor that Kuo believes will hurt fourth-quarter iPhone sales is China. Still the world's largest smartphone market, China is seeing weaker demand for mobile phones as the market has become more saturated. Apple has been hit by the downturn, losing its spot as the No. 1 smartphone seller in China and now in third place behind local vendors Xiaomi and Huawei, according to research firm Canalys. Even Apple CEO Tim Cook has acknowledged that China could see some "speed bumps" because of economic woes.
郭明池认为会损害iPhone第四季度销量的另一因素就是中国。中国当前仍是世界上最大的智能手机市场，但其手机市场已经趋于饱和，用户对于手机的需求正在减弱。据调研公司Canalys的数据显示，苹果公司已经开始衰退了，当前已失去了在中国智能手机销量第一的地位，位于本土品牌小米和华为之后，屈居第三。甚至苹果的CEO Tim Cook都已经承认，由于经济低迷，中国市场的发展已经进入了“减速带”。
With no real killer feature for the new iPhone and sluggish demand in China, Kuo said that iPhone sales in the fourth quarter could fall to between 65 million and 75 million. If that forecast isn't on the higher side, then sales would actually drop below the record 74.5 million iPhones reported in the same quarter in 2014. That would mark the first time that quarterly iPhone sales dropped on a year-to-year basis.
郭明池预测，由于新版iPhone没有真正的杀手级特性，而中国市场需求也不旺盛，iPhone在第四季度的销售可能会跌至6500-7500万部左右。照此估计，iPhone的销量将低于去年同期苹果7450万部的骄人成绩，也将面临其历史上第一次销量下滑。
Nothing definitive is known about the next iPhone at this point. Apple is expected to stick with the same screen sizes introduced last year -- one iPhone with a 4.8-inch screen and a larger edition with a 5.5-inch display. Kuo has suggested that the new phones will be powered by the Samsung-produced A9 processor, the successor to the current A8 chip. Combine that with 2GB of RAM, and the next iPhones would offer a hefty bump in power and speed over the iPhone 6.
截止目前，关于新版iPhone的任何消息均不能保证确切。苹果公司很可能继续延续去年发布的屏幕尺寸版本：一款4.8英寸，同时发布一版5.5英寸屏幕的iPhone。郭明池预测新版iPhone将会采用三星制造的A9处理器，以代替当前的A8芯片。再结合2GB的RAM存储器，下一代iPhone将比iPhone6在运行和速度方面都有一个飞跃。
