评论
打印
China’s transition from an investment-driven to a consumer-led economy bears similarities to driving a hybrid car. While the driver may prefer to use the car’s greener electric engine, he can find that, when it lacks torque, he is compelled to switch back to the more traditional gas-guzzling form of propulsion.
中国从投资驱动型经济迈向消费主导型经济的转型，与驾驶混合动力汽车有着一些相似之处。尽管司机或许倾向于使用更环保的电动引擎，但是他会发现，当扭矩不足时，他不得不切回到更传统的“油老虎”引擎。
This analogy, which comes from Tim Adams, president of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry association, frames the challenge for Beijing as it seeks to boost the power of a consumer-oriented “new economy” that relies on service industries, technological upgrading and greener living.
这个类比出自国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)主席蒂姆•亚当斯(Tim Adams)，它形容的是中国在寻求从消费导向型“新经济”中获得更大动力时所面临的挑战。“新经济”依赖于服务业、技术升级以及更加环保的生活方式。
“Over time, the hybrid will increasingly provide the needed propulsion, though it currently lacks the torque to get over the hills or when it is facing headwinds,” Mr Adams said.
“随着时间的推移，混合驱动将逐渐提供中国所亟需的动力，尽管目前它的扭矩不足以支撑其翻山越岭或是在逆风中行驶，”亚当斯称。
So what progress is Beijing making in building a “new economy”? How smooth is its transition away from the current power-hungry, investment-dependent model likely to be?
那么，中国在构建“新经济”方面正在取得哪些进展？它摆脱“高耗能”投资依赖型经济的转型进程会有多顺利？
Some auguries appear positive. An analysis of 2015 financial results by Wind Information, a data company, shows the clear outperformance of “new economy” corporates listed on domestic A-share markets compared with their “old” economy counterparts.
一些征兆似乎比较乐观。数据提供商万得资讯(Wind Information)对上市企业2015年财报所作的分析表明，与传统经济板块的A股上市企业相比，“新经济”上市企业的表现明显更加出色。
With 68 per cent of A-share-listed companies having reported results, “new economy” companies — defined as those in the accommodation, business services, information technology, science and research, transportation and retail sectors — posted average earnings per share of Rmb0.48 last year, up from Rmb0.45 in 2014, according to Wind Information.
68%的A股上市企业已经公布了财报，据万得资讯表示，“新经济”企业——被定义为住宿、商业服务、信息技术、科研、交通和零售行业的企业——去年平均每股收益为0.48元人民币，较2014年的0.45元人民币有所提高。
The 2015 earnings-per-share value for A-share companies was the highest since an average Rmb0.5 hit in 2011 when China’s GDP expanded by an official 9.5 per cent.
2011年中国官方公布的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率为9.5%，当年A股企业平均每股收益达到0.5元人民币。自那以后，A股平均每股收益最高的就数2015年了。
By contrast, “old economy” sectors — defined as agriculture, construction, utilities, manufacturing, mining and real estate — suffered a decline in average earnings per share last year to Rmb0.33, down from Rmb0.35 in 2014 and off a recent high of Rmb0.52 in 2010, according to Wind.
万得资讯表示，与“新经济”领域相比，“传统经济”板块——被定义为农业、建筑、公共事业、制造业、采矿以及房地产——去年平均每股收益下滑至0.33元人民币，低于2014年的0.35元人民币，更远低于2010年创下的0.52元人民币的近期纪录高点。
In a further sign that the transition is under way, the best performing sectors were all mainstays of the service-oriented economy: financial services, science and research, wholesale and retail and sanitation. At the other end of the spectrum were industrial conglomerates and mining sectors, both of which registered a net loss per share.
还有进一步的迹象表明转型正在进行当中——业绩表现最好的板块包括金融服务、科研、批发和零售以及环境卫生，都属服务型经济的中流砥柱。处于另一端的是工业综合企业和采矿业，这两个板块均报出了每股净亏损。
But in spite of these signs that a corporate-level transition is under way, from a macroeconomic perspective, the evidence is less compelling.
不过，尽管这些迹象表明企业层面的转型正在进行当中，但从宏观经济角度来看，转型的证据则没那么有说服力。
China’s problem is that, while many of its new economy firms may be vibrant, profitable and innovative, they comprise too small a portion of the economy to dominate the investment narrative.
中国的问题在于，尽管“新经济”领域的很多企业可能充满活力、有盈利能力并且具有创新力，但它们在经济中所占的比重太小，无法在投资故事中占据主导角色。
This reality shows up in China’s official industrial survey, which covers almost all companies of significant size in the country — some 328,000 in total compared with the cohort of 2,828 A-share-listed companies.
在几乎覆盖中国所有规模企业（总计约32.8万家，相比之下，A股上市企业为2828家）的官方行业调查中，这种情况就显而易见。
Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economic at research firm Oxford Economics, calculated that the average profit margin of companies in the survey fell to 5.8 per cent in 2015, down from a recent high of more than 7.6 per cent in 2010.
研究机构牛津经济(Oxford Economics)亚洲经济部主任高路易(Louis Kuijs)推算，2015年，接受调查的企业的平均利润率下降至5.8%，而2010年创下的近年纪录高点超过7.6%。
Jianguang Shen, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, also tempers his enthusiasm for the “new economy”.
瑞穗证券亚洲(Mizuho Securities Asia)首席经济学家沈建光对“新经济”的热情也有些下降。
“I believe in the long run, the new sectors will be able to offset the old sectors but, over the next two years, they will be unable to do so,” he said.
“我认为从长远看，新行业将能够弥补传统行业，但未来两年内无法实现这一点，”他称。
Indeed, the sharp bifurcation in fortunes is evident not only between industry sectors.
实际上，显著差别不仅存在于新旧行业之间。
The map of China too shows a gulf between seven northerly provinces that posted nominal GDP growth of less than 2 per cent last year and central and southern counterparts, which expanded at a considerably faster clip.
中国的地理版图也呈现出巨大的增长鸿沟，去年北方七省的名义GDP增长率不足2%，而中部及南方各省的经济增速要快得多。
These northern provinces are home to a disproportionate concentration of mining, metals and other heavy industries that have sustained most of the pain inherent in China’s transition.
采矿业、金属及其他重工业过于集中地分布在这些北方省份，这些行业承受了伴随经济转型而来的绝大部分痛苦。
If China senses an obvious loss of torque, it may not be long before it starts to rev up its traditional, investment-dependent motors.
如果中国明显感受到扭矩不足，它可能过不了多久就会开始加大其传统的投资驱动型引擎的油门。
