评论
打印
The headquarters of CATL, China’s fastest growing battery maker, lie on the edge of the city of Ningde, a stone’s throw from ponds where farmers raise carp and a street of cheap noodle restaurants and vehicle repair shops frequented by migrant workers. Inside the vast factory, battery parts move silently on automated conveyor belts. Signs on the walls encourage workers not to waste materials or time, or indulge in “unnecessary bending” for their own safety.
中国增长速度最快的电池制造商——宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司(CATL)的总部坐落于宁德市的边缘，距这里不远处便是鱼塘和一条街道，街上遍布农民工经常光顾的廉价面馆和修车铺。在这座庞大工厂内部，电池部件在自动传送带上默默地移动。墙上的标语鼓励工人不要浪费材料和时间，为了他们的安全起见，也不要沉迷于“不必要的弯曲”。
The plant looks like lots of others dotted across the country. But with a valuation of $11.5bn, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, to give it its full name, is anything but mundane. It is set to become China’s Panasonic — a national champion — and a key part of Beijing’s ambitious plan to remake the global battery market and exploit rising demand for electric cars.
这座工厂看上去与遍布中国各地的众多工厂没什么不同。但估值115亿美元的该公司绝非等闲之辈。它将成为一家国家冠军企业，相当于中国的松下(Panasonic)；成为北京方面雄心勃勃计划的一个关键部分，目的是改写全球电池市场版图，利用来自电动车的日益增长的需求。
“We want to become a leading enterprise, like the front carriage of a train, driving an entire supply chain,” says Neill Yang, CATL’s marketing director. His office overlooks cranes and cement mixers, which are building a dormitory and offices to house 20,000 workers.
CATL市场营销总监杨琦(Neill Yang)说：“我们希望成为一家龙头企业，就像带动整个供应链的火车头。”他的办公室俯瞰着不少起重机和混凝土搅拌车，它们正在建造可容纳2万名员工的宿舍楼和办公楼。
CATL, which had capacity to produce 7.6 gigawatts of batteries last year according to Goldman Sachs, says that by 2020 it plans to produce more than the gigafactory, the Tesla Motors and Panasonic joint venture that opened in Nevada in January and is expected to be the largest producer in the US. That would potentially make it the biggest battery factory in the world.
根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据，CATL去年的电池产能为7.6吉瓦时(GWh)。该公司表示，计划到2020年将产能提升至超过“超级工厂”(gigafactory)——特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)与松下的合资公司，今年1月在内华达州投产，预计将成为美国最大电池生产商。那将使CATL有可能成为全球最大的电池企业。
Backed by aggressive government policies — ranging from subsidies for electric vehicles to restrictions on foreign rivals — China’s battery companies are beginning to dominate an industry which has been led for three decades by South Korean and Japanese manufacturers such as Panasonic, which makes the battery cells for Tesla cars.
在激进的政府政策——从为电动车提供补贴到限制外国竞争对手——的支持下，中国电池企业正开始主导行业，而该行业过去30年一直由韩国和日本电池制造商（如为特斯拉汽车制造电源电芯的松下）引领。
Beijing last week called for companies to double electric vehicle battery capacity by 2020 and encouraged them to invest in factories overseas. As carmakers invest more heavily in electric vehicles the lithium-ion battery will be a key technology for at least the next decade, creating a market Goldman Sachs estimates will be worth $40bn by 2025 and dominated by China.
不久前，中国政府呼吁国内电池企业到2020年将电动车电池产能提升一倍，鼓励它们到海外投资建厂。随着汽车制造商加大对电动车的投入，锂离子电池至少在未来10年将是一项关键技术，从而创建一个巨大市场。据高盛估计，到2025年这个市场将价值400亿美元，并由中国主导。
“It will not be easy to surpass Japanese and South Korean companies,” says Mr Yang. “But we think over the next 10 years, there may only be 10 lithium battery producers left, with the top three taking 60 per cent of the market.”
“超越日韩企业并非易事，”杨琦说，“但我们认为，未来10年期间，最终可能只会剩下10家锂电池生产商，实力最强的3家将占有60%的市场。”
Since 2012 China has spent billions of renminbi subsiding its electric carmakers, turning Shenzhen-based BYD, which is 25 per cent owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, into the world’s largest electric car and bus maker with a market capitalisation of $18.7bn. As well as boosting supply China is also creating demand: by 2020 it predicts 5m electric vehicles will be on its roads, from 1m today.
自2012年以来，中国支出了数十亿元人民币补贴国内电动车制造商，将总部位于深圳的比亚迪(BYD)打造成了全球最大的电动汽车和客车制造商，市值达187亿美元。沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)拥有比亚迪大约10%股份。在提振供应的同时，中国也在创造需求：到2020年，预计电动车保有量将从现在的100万辆增长至500万辆。
China’s approach has echoes of the one it took on solar power a decade ago. It dominated the industry by lowering costs and driving prices down by 70 per cent and could do the same for batteries, says Gordon Orr, former Asia chairman of McKinsey. That would make electric cars more competitive — batteries account for up to half the total vehicle cost — but it could also mean a drastic loss of market share for manufacturers in the rest of Asia, the US and Europe.
中国发展电池产业的战略让人联想起10年前中国发展太阳能发电行业走过的道路。麦肯锡(McKinsey)前亚洲区董事长欧高敦(Gordon Orr)称，中国通过降低成本和使价格下降70%，主导了太阳能发电行业，如今在电池领域也可能取得这样的成就。这将使电动车更有竞争力（电池占电动车总成本多达一半），但这也可能意味着亚洲其他地区、美国和欧洲的电池制造商将失去大量市场份额。
“We know how [solar] panned out. China got the net result it wanted but in the process [there was] billions of dollars of value destruction,” Mr Orr says. “I do see the characteristics of heading down that same path, and whether it’s CATL or others who win at the end is impossible to predict.”
“我们知道（太阳能行业）的结局。中国得到了它想要的最终结果，但这一过程伴随着巨额的价值摧毁，”欧高敦说，“我的确看到了电池行业正在走上同一条路径的特征，但无法预测是CATL还是其他企业能笑到最后。”
In every device
用于每个电子设备
Lithium-ion batteries revolutionised the consumer electronics market after Sony commercialised them in 1981. From the Walkman to the iPhone they form a central part of the gadgets in everyday life. Now they are set to play an equally big role in transportation, helping to reduce the dependence on oil.
自1981年索尼(Sony)实现锂离子电池商业化后，这种电池彻底改变了消费电子市场。从随身听(Walkman)到iPhone，它们成了日常生活中所有电子设备的中心部件。如今，它们势必将在交通领域扮演同样重要的角色，帮助人类减轻对石油的依赖。
Since the 1980s battery production for the electronics industry has been dominated by companies in South Korea and Japan. But China has caught up. In 2013 it outpaced Korea as the world’s largest supplier of lithium batteries for all electronic devices, according to Goldman. A year later that lead increased as China’s electric vehicle market took off. In 2016 507,000 battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold in China, an increase of 50 per cent over the previous 12 months.
自上世纪80年代以来，电子工业的电池生产一直由韩国和日本企业主导，但中国已经赶上来。高盛的数据显示，2013年，中国超越韩国，成为全球最大电子设备锂电池供应国。一年后，随着中国电动车市场开始起飞，这种领先优势进一步扩大。2016年，中国售出了50.7万辆纯电动和插电式混合动力车，比上一年增长50%。
While Panasonic is the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries globally, China’s BYD and CATL were just behind, according to figures collated by Bernstein, the research group.
研究机构伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)整理的数据显示，虽然松下仍是全球最大的电动车电池供应商，但中国的比亚迪和CATL紧随其后。
“The Japanese invent it, the Koreans look to expand and build it out and the Chinese end up dominating it as that’s where the market ultimately is,” says Duncan Goodwin, head of global resources equities for fund manager Barings. “We are going to see a significant step up in manufacturing capacity driven by China and Chinese demand.”
“日本人发明了它，韩国人寻求扩大生产规模，而中国人最终占据了主导地位，因为市场最终是在中国，”基金管理公司霸菱(Barings)环球资源板块股票主管邓肯?古德温(Duncan Goodwin)表示，“我们将看到由中国和中国的需求推动的制造能力显著提升。”
If Chinese battery companies deliver on their targets they will have capacity to produce 121 GWh of batteries by 2020, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. That compares with a target of 35 GWh for Tesla’s gigafactory when it reaches full capacity next year. A single GWh would power 40,000 electric cars to each travel 100km.
根据彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的数据，如果中国电池企业实现各自的目标，到2020年它们将拥有生产121吉瓦时电池的产能。相比之下，特斯拉的超级工厂明年达到满负荷生产能力时的目标产能为35吉瓦时。1吉瓦时可以驱动4万辆电动车行驶100公里。
“The Chinese are massively building up their capacity to get a stranglehold on this market,” says Simon Moores, head of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in London.
伦敦Benchmark Mineral Intelligence负责人西蒙? 穆尔斯(Simon Moores)表示：“中国企业正在大规模提升它们的产能，以便主宰这一市场。”
Foreign companies at bay
走投无路的外国公司
In 2015 in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, South Korea’s LG Chem opened a battery factory. The same year Samsung SDI followed suit, opening a plant in Xian in central China and declaring that it would “forge its foothold in the world’s biggest new energy vehicle market”. A year later Beijing released a list of companies allowed to supply batteries in the country. Not a single foreign company was included.
2015年，在华东的南京市，韩国LG化学(LG Chem)开设了一家电池厂。同年，三星SDI(Samsung SDI)也跟着在华中的西安建起一家电池厂，并宣布该公司将“在世界最大新能源汽车市场打下立足之地”。一年后，中国政府公布了一份允许在中国供应电池的企业名单。没有一家外国公司包括在内。
Separately Beijing released draft guidelines at the end of last year that said car battery manufacturers would need to have at least 8 GWh of production capacity in China to qualify for subsidies — a target that only BYD and CATL can meet.
此外，中国政府去年底发布的行业指引草案称，电动车电池制造商必须在中国至少拥有8吉瓦时的产能，才有资格获得补贴——只有比亚迪和CATL满足这一标准。
“China seeks to acquire world-class foreign battery technology while keeping overall Chinese ownership and control,” says Michael Dunne, head of Dunne Automotive in Hong Kong. “It has been very careful to cultivate local battery champions while using licensing procedures to hold foreign companies at bay.”
“中国一边设法获取世界级外国电池技术，一边保持总体的所有权和控制权，”位于香港的邓恩汽车(Dunne Automotive)的迈克?邓恩(Michael Dunne)说，“中国一直在精心栽培本国的电池冠军企业，同时利用审批程序挡住外国公司。”
BYD has particularly benefited from government support. Beijing has provided subsidies for electric buses using lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a type used by BYD but not by many foreign manufacturers due to its lower power capacity. As a result BYD sold 11,000 of its e-buses last year, up from virtually zero in 2013, according to Macquarie. “The [Chinese] tailor-made the subsidy programme to make sure neither Samsung or LG Chem would get any part of it,” says one international commodity trader.
比亚迪尤其受益于政府支持。中国曾为使用锂-铁磷酸盐(LFP)电池的电动客车提供补贴，而只有比亚迪使用这种类型的电池，由于其容量太低，许多外国制造商都不采用。其结果是，根据麦格理(Macquarie)的数据，比亚迪去年销售了1.1万辆电动客车，而其2013年的电动客车销量几近于零。一位国际大宗商品交易员表示：“（中国）量身定做的补贴计划就是为了确保三星或LG化学得不到任何补贴。”
To allow electric cars to go farther on a single charge, a critical factor for batteries is their energy density. For now China lags behind Korean makers in terms of the technology to provide greater energy density, according to Bernstein analysts. The frontrunners in the market are LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation and Panasonic “with Chinese suppliers playing catch-up,” it says.
要让电动车充一次电行驶更远，对电池而言，关键是能量密度。伯恩斯坦的分析师们表示，就目前而言，在掌握提供更大能量密度的技术方面，中国落后于韩国电池制造商。伯恩斯坦称，电池市场的领跑者包括LG化学、三星SDI、SK Innovation及松下，“中国供应商在追赶”。
“Because the Chinese have artificial government protection they are able to grow scale that’s bigger than the Koreans,” says Mark Newman, an analyst at Bernstein. “They are still a couple of years behind but they’re narrowing the gap due to their scale.”
“因为中国企业有人为的政府保护，它们能够在规模上超过韩国企业，”伯恩斯坦分析师马克?纽曼(Mark Newman)说，“它们在技术上仍落后几年，但它们的规模正让它们缩小这种差距。”
Increasing the amount of power the battery can store on one charge will be crucial. But that will require continued innovation, says Varun Sivaram, a specialist in energy security at the Council on Foreign Relations.
增加电池一次充电可以存储的电量将是至关重要的。但美国外交关系协会(Council on Foreign Relations)能源安全专家Varun Sivaram表示，这需要不断创新。
“In electric vehicles if you keep decreasing the cost but don’t increase the performance you reach a limit — the car’s too expensive because the energy density is not high enough,” Mr Sivaram says. “My belief is that the [Chinese companies] will not ultimately win out. You will need higher energy density batteries and manufacturers who have the next generation technology will win.”
“在电动车这一行，如果不断降低成本，但不提升性能，就会触及一个极限——这种车太贵，因为能量密度不够高，”Varun Sivaram说，“我认为，（中国企业）将不会笑到最后。未来需要更高能量密度的电池，拥有下一代技术的制造商才会胜出。”
Access to raw materials
获取原料
Even more than the subsidies or barriers to foreign operators, the greatest advantage for Chinese battery manufacturers over rivals such as Tesla is access to raw materials. Chinese companies have been making inroads over the past year into the lithium-ion supply chain, buying up mining assets from cobalt to lithium to help cut costs.
对外国电池制造商而言，比得不到补贴或遭遇种种障碍更令它们担忧的，是中国电池制造商相比特斯拉等竞争对手的最大优势：获取原料。过去一年，中国企业对锂离子供应链连连出手，买下钴、锂等矿业资产以降低成本。
This year Ganfeng Lithium, one of the country’s largest producers of the battery chemical, bought a 19.9 per cent stake in an Argentine lithium project. The deal followed on the heels of a purchase last year of a 2.1 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM, the world’s largest lithium producer, by Tianqi Lithium.
今年，中国最大锂生产商之一——赣锋锂业收购了阿根廷一个锂项目19.9%的股份。去年，天齐锂业(Tianqi Lithium)收购了智利SQM公司2.1%的股份，后者是全球最大的锂生产商。
Similarly in cobalt, China Molybdenum, a mining company partially owned by a Chinese local government, paid $2.65bn last year for the Tenke mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The mine contains one of the world’s largest concentrations of cobalt and offers “security of supply of a critical battery material for decades to come,” according to Investec. Cobalt traders say most of Tenke’s supply is likely to go back to China, where prices have doubled since October.
在钴方面也一样，去年，中国地方政府参股的洛阳钼业(China Molybdenum)斥资26.5亿美元收购了刚果民主共和国的Tenke铜钴矿。根据Investec的数据，该矿是世界钴储量最大的矿之一，可以保证这种关键电池材料未来几十年的供应安全。钴交易员称，Tenke的大部分钴供应可能被运回中国，中国的钴价自去年10月以来翻了一倍。
Chinese companies are also likely to disrupt the battery material supply chain and drive down prices, according to analysts at HSBC. “China’s aggressive push to promote the domestic electric vehicle market will accelerate an expansion in the local ecosystem,” they said.
汇丰(HSBC)的分析师们表示，中国企业还可能扰乱电池材料供应链，导致价格下跌。“中国促进国内电动车市场发展的积极努力，将加速地方产业生态系统的扩张，”他们说。
In Ningde CATL says it has a staff of 1,000 people working in its research and development department. The company has more than 2,000 battery-related patents and analysts at Goldman Sachs said in January they expect it to “catch up with global peers in product quality”.
在宁德，CATL称公司研发部门拥有1000名员工。该公司拥有2000余项电池相关专利，而高盛的分析师们1月表示，预计该公司将“在产品质量上赶上全球同行”。
National Electric Vehicle Sweden, which bought the bankrupt Saab carmaker in 2012, signed a battery supply agreement with CATL earlier this year.
今年早些时候，瑞典国家电动车公司(NEVS)与CATL签署了一项电池供应协议，前者于2012年收购了破产的汽车制造商萨博(Saab)。
“The Chinese government has a list of approved battery makers and if you don’t choose one of those you will not be allowed to apply for subsidies on the Chinese market,” Anders Bjornberg, director of R&D at NEVS, says. “CATL are also competitive with the Japanese and Koreans, it’s not that we have taken the second-best choice. It’s the best choice in China.”
“中国政府有一份获批的电池制造商名单，如果不选择其中某家，就不会被允许在中国市场申请补贴，”NEVS的研发总监安德斯?比约恩贝里(Anders Bjornberg)表示，“CATL同样能够与日韩企业竞争，这并不意味着我们接受了次优选择。这是在中国的最佳选择。”
Mr Yang says the company’s first aim is to serve domestic Chinese customers rather than export to the global market.
杨琦表示，CATL的首要目标是服务国内客户，而非出口全球市场。
Yet CATL cannot hide its global ambitions. Mr Yang concedes the company hopes to work with Tesla, has been in contact with General Motors and its current clients include Volkswagen and BMW. In January it bought a 22 per cent stake in Finnish auto supplier Valmet Automotive. It also has an eye on building a factory in Europe. That’s “not a distant prospect,” Mr Yang says.
但CATL掩饰不了其全球雄心。杨琦承认，该公司希望与特斯拉合作，也一直在与通用汽车(General Motors)接洽，而现有客户包括大众(Volkswagen)和宝马(BMW)。今年1月，CATL收购了芬兰汽车供应商瓦尔麦特汽车(Valmet Automotive) 22%的股份。CATL还打算在欧洲建一家工厂。这“不是一个遥远的前景，”杨琦说。
The rivals: Japan prepares for a fight it cannot afford to lose
竞争对手：日本准备为一场输不起的竞争而战
When Japan looks at the global battery market in 2017 — the shifting technologies, the emerging players and the intensifying competition — it recalls the past two decades of industrial history and winces.
举目2017年的全球电池市场——技术变化、新对手崛起以及日趋激烈的竞争——会让日本回忆起过去20年的工业史和各种尴尬瞬间。
It has watched as its dominant position in semiconductors, TVs, white goods, mobile phones and even high speed rail has been first dented then battered by competition from South Korea, China and elsewhere. But batteries, runs the mantra from everyone in the supply chain, is a battle Japan has told itself it “cannot lose”.
日本眼睁睁地看着本国在半导体、电视机、白色家电、手机甚至高铁领域的主导地位被韩国、中国及其他地区的竞争对手先是一点点蚕食，然后是重创。但是供应链上每个人的箴言是，电池是日本告诉自己“输不起”的一场角力。
As well as Beijing’s high-profile backing of its domestic battery industry, much of Japan’s urgency, say lithium experts, is driven by the assumption that the fundamental dynamics of the lithium market are poised to change: batteries are about to overtake all other industrial users of the metal as the prime source of demand. At the corporate level, say lawyers involved in recent battery supply chain deals, Japan’s determination has prompted an acceleration of asset sales, purchases and joint-venture formations.
除了北京方面高调支持国内电池行业外，锂专家们表示，日本的紧迫感有很大一部分源于假设锂市场的格局即将发生根本变化：电池就要超过这种金属的其他所有工业用途，成为主要需求来源。在企业层面，参与近期电池供应链交易的律师们表示，日本的决心加速了资产出售、并购以及合资公司的成立。
High-performance materials companies like Ube Industries, Sumitomo and Central Glass are investing heavily in new battery production capacity around Asia. Others like Murata Manufacturing are pushing ahead with acquisitions. In July, the company is expected to complete the purchase of Sony’s battery business, before working on a supply deal with Samsung Electronics.
宇部兴产(Ube Industries)、住友(Sumitomo)及Central Glass等高性能材料企业，正在亚洲各地大举投资于新的电池生产能力。其他企业，如村田制作所(Murata Manufacturing)，正在推进并购。今年7月，村田制作所预计将完成对索尼电池业务的收购，然后将致力于与三星电子(Samsung Electronics)达成一项供应协议。
Japan’s sense of panic has been intensified by the Trump administration’s scuppering of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. That pact, say producers, was to have been beneficial to Japan’s battery industry, which had already begun to invest in capacity in Vietnam on the assumption it could then export to the US and Canada.
特朗普政府撕毁《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)之举加剧了日本的恐慌感觉。生产商称，该协议本来有望令日本电池工业受益，日本原本已经开始在越南投资于电池产能，以为可以让产品行销美国和加拿大。
