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I thought I would start with a very brief
我觉得我得从城市的历史
history of cities.
简单说起
Settlements typically began
人们聚井而居
with people clustered around a well, and the size
揭开了典型的定居生活
of that settlement was roughly the distance you could walk
而这种定居的范围，也不过是你头顶着一盆水
with a pot of water on your head.
所能走的距离罢了
In fact, if you fly over Germany, for example,
其实，假如你能从德国上空飞过
and you look down and you see these hundreds
往下看，你会看到数以百计的小村庄
of little villages, they're all about a mile apart.
每个距离约一英里
You needed easy access to the fields.
这样你就到地里去就很方便了
And for hundreds, even thousands of years,
几百几千年以来
the home was really the center of life.
家就是生活的中心
Life was very small for most people.
所以对大多数人来说，生活范围其实很小
It was the center of entertainment, of energy production,
家是欢乐，动力
of work, the center of health care.
工作，和医疗的中心
That's where babies were born and people died.
在那里，也有生老病死
Then, with industrialization, everything started
之后工业化的兴起，
to become centralized.
一切开始变得集中起来
You had dirty factories that were moved
那些污浊不堪的工厂
to the outskirts of cities.
都搬到了郊外
Production was centralized in assembly plants.
产品也都被集中到装配厂
You had centralized energy production.
我们还把能源生产也集中起来
Learning took place in schools. Health care took place
学校是学习用的
in hospitals.
医院是治病用的
And then you had networks that developed.
然后网络也发展起来了
You had water, sewer networks that allowed for this
供水管网，污水管网也使得
kind of unchecked expansion.
不断的扩张成为了可能
You had separated functions, increasingly.
慢慢地，我们把不同的职能给区分开来
You had rail networks that connected residential,
铁路网连接到了住宅区
industrial, commercial areas. You had auto networks.
工业区和商业区，汽车交通网也建立起来了
In fact, the model was really, give everybody a car,
事实上，这个模式就是，给每人一辆车
build roads to everything, and give people a place to park
把路给修起来，然后在人们停车的地方
when they get there. It was not a very functional model.
弄个车库，其实这并不是一个行得通的模式
And we still live in that world,
但我们依旧生活在这样的环境下
and this is what we end up with.
所以这就是我们所得到的
So you have the sprawl of LA,
所以就有了洛杉矶的扩展区
the sprawl of Mexico City.
墨西哥城的扩展区
You have these unbelievable new cities in China
在中国匪夷所思般崛起了各种新城市
which you might call tower sprawl.
也可以称为“雨后春笋”
They're all building cities on the model that we invented
他们都是基于我们在50年代或60年代发明的模式
in the '50s and '60s, which is really obsolete, I would argue,
在建城市，我觉得这样是跟不上时代的
and there are hundreds and hundreds of new cities
而此时此刻，不计其数的城市
that are being planned all over the world.
正在世界各地紧锣密鼓筹备兴建
In China alone, 300 million people,
单中国来说，3亿人口，
some say 400 million people,
有的说4亿
will move to the city over the next 15 years.
将会在接下来的15年里搬迁到城市里
That means building the entire, the equivalent
这就等同于要美国
of the entire built infrastructure of the U.S. in 15 years.
在15年内建造起整个国家基础设施
Imagine that.
想象一下
And we should all care about this
我们都应该关注一下
whether you live in cities or not.
不管你是否住在城里
Cities will account for 90 percent of the population growth,
城市主宰着90%的人口增长
80 percent of the global CO2, 75 percent of energy use,
全球80%的CO2，75%的能源消费
but at the same time it's where people want to be,
同时，也是人们向往的地方
increasingly.
这情况与日剧增
More than half the people now in the world live in cities,
现在世界上一半以上的人口住在城市里
and that will just continue to escalate.
而且还会不断增加
Cities are places of celebration, personal expression.
城市是人们庆祝和表现的地方
You have the flash mobs of pillow fights that a”
城市里有枕头大战的快闪族——
I've been to a couple. They're quite fun.
我去过几次，还真有趣。
You have”
还有——
Cities are where most of the wealth is created,
城市是大部分财富的来源
and particularly in the developing world,
尤其是在发展中国家
it's where women find opportunities. That's
妇女也能拥有各种机遇，所以
a lot of the reason why cities are growing very quickly.
有很多原因可以解释为何城市发展如此快速
Now there's some trends that will impact cities.
但某些趋势会影响到城市
First of all, work is becoming distributed and mobile.
首先，工作遵循分配模式而且不再一成不变
The office building is basically obsolete
办公大楼基本淘汰了
for doing private work.
私人的工作
The home, once again, because of distributed computation --
由于有了分布式通信和分布式计算
communication, is becoming a center of life,
家，再一次成为了生活的中心
so it's a center of production and learning and shopping
家成为了生产，学习，购物，还有医疗
and health care and all of these things that we used
还有那些我们认为
to think of as taking place outside of the home.
都是在家外发生的一切的中心
And increasingly, everything that people buy,
渐渐地，所有人们买的东西
every consumer product, in one way or another,
所有的消费品，通过不同的方式
can be personalized.
都能够实现个性化
And that's a very important trend to think about.
这是值得关注的一个重要趋势
So this is my image of the city of the future.
这就是我想象中的未来城市
In that it's a place for people, you know.
图中那里就是人们可以待的地方
Maybe not the way people dress, but --
人们的衣着可能不会是这样，但
You know, the question now is, how can we have all
要知道，现在的问题是，我们要如何
the good things that we identify with cities
对于城市带给我们的产物
without all the bad things?
做到取其精华去其糟粕呢？
This is Bangalore. It took me a couple of hours
这儿是班加罗尔，在去年的时候
to get a few miles in Bangalore last year.
我花了好几小时才在班加罗尔移动了几英里
So with cities, you also have congestion and pollution
所以在城市里，有拥挤和污染
and disease and all these negative things.
有疾病还有很多负面的东西
How can we have the good stuff without the bad?
怎样取其精华去其糟粕呢？
So we went back and started looking at the great cities
我们暂且回头看看那么比较不错的城市吧
that evolved before the cars.
在有了汽车之前的状态
Paris was a series of these little villages
巴黎就是由好些小村庄
that came together, and you still see that structure today.
合并而成的，这种分布结构你今天还可以看得出来
The 20 arrondissements of Paris
巴黎的20个区
are these little neighborhoods.
就像20个小邻居
Most of what people need in life can be
大多数人们的生活所需
within a five- or 10-minute walk.
或许就在5到10分钟的步行范围里
And if you look at the data, when you have that kind
如果你去看那些数据，当你建立了
of a structure, you get a very even distribution
这种结构后，巴黎的商店
of the shops and the physicians and the pharmacies
内科医生，药房，还有咖啡厅
and the cafes in Paris.
都会很平均地分布在城市中
And then you look at cities that evolved after
之后你再看那些拥有了汽车后的城市
the automobile, and it's not that kind of a pattern.
他们就完全不是这个模式了
There's very little that's within a five minute walk
像匹兹堡，大部分地方
of most areas of places like Pittsburgh.
很少再有几步之遥的生活了
Not to pick on Pittsburgh, but most American cities
不单是匹兹堡，大部分美国的城市
really have evolved this way.
都演变成这个样了
