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Now, does anyone not know what cohort analysis is, or should I go over it?
有没有人不知道“同期群分析”的？我要讲一下吗？
Yeah. Okay. So I'll go over it. Okay.
好的。讲一下这两个词
So CLV is some people call it LTV.
“客户生命周期价值”
It is called customer lifetime,
也叫“客户终身价值”
which is, basically the amount of the net revenue
是指一个客户
that a customer brings in the door for you over a certain amount of period.
在一定时期内给你创造的净利润
So, a 12 month CLV is how much net revenue does a customer give you over 12 months.
因此12个月的“客户生命周期价值”就是一个客户12个月创造的净利润
Sometimes people look at three months, six months, and so on and so forth.
有的企业用季度或半年的时间来衡量，根据企业的情况，时间可以自主选择
So, when I say cohort, basically, what you're looking at is, this is time.
“同期群分析”，画个图解释一下，这里表示的是时间
So, let's just call this, yeah, time.
这里是时间
So, and this is percent of users coming back to you.
这是回头客的占比
So at time zero, right, a period zero, we're at a hundred. I'm using 100%.
这里是时间的起点，顶上是100%。100%
So, cohort is another name also for like customer segments and stuff like that.
同期群也有点类似于客户分类
So you can, like, you might look at the female versus male cohort.
例如，女用户vs男用户
People in Atlanta Georgia verses people in Sacramento California.
佐治亚州亚特兰大用户vs加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托用户
But, the most common one is by month.
但是，一般都是用月表示时间的
So, cohort equals month and lets just say for this exercise,
因此，同期群是用月来衡量的
we are looking at like March of, I don't know, 2012.
假设现在是2012年的3月
So, March 2012, 100% of people, you'll have like, that means n equals 100 people.
2012年3月，有100%的用户表示有100个用户
So, 100% of the people, obviously, are using your product because, that's the definition.
我们现在定义起初有100个用户用你的产品
Now, one month later, you might have, this scale is not right,
一个月以后，用户数量落到这个点
but 50% might come back and so, you come here.
只有50%的回头客了
Now, in the second month, how many people that came in March, come back two months later?
第二个月，两个月以后有多少回头客呢？
And that might be down here.
可能只有这么多了
And, so, over time, you'll have a curve that looks like this.
一段时间后，曲线值趋于平稳
There's always some initial drop off, you know.
一开始数值都会大幅下滑
The reasons why people don't stay after their first use is,
原因可能是，用户觉得这钱花的冤枉
it wasn't worth it, had a bad experience, stuff like that.
用户体验不好等等
And then, over time what you want is,
一段时间之后
you want this to flatten out over time,
曲线值基本平稳
so that your turn basically goes to 0% that means you attrition out less, and less users over time.
不再波动，说明客户流失的少了
And these over here, kind of become your core customers,
这部分客户群体，就成了核心客户
these are the ones that are like sort of staying with you for a long time.
他们对你的产品会有很高的忠诚度
