评论
打印
Microsoft was the last operating system, at least for many decades.
微软的操作系统笑到最后，已经几十年了
Google is the last search engine.
谷歌的搜索引擎笑到最后
Facebook will be valuable if it turns out to be the last, social networking site.
如果Facebook在社交网站这块也能笑到最后，也是很有价值的
One way to think of this last mover of value
可以这样想，这些笑到最后的公司
is this idea that most of the value in these companies exists far in the future.
在未来相当长的一段时间内还会继续发展
If you do a discounted cash flow analysis of a business.
如果你分析一下这些公司按现值计算的现金流量
You look at, you have sort of all these profit streams. You have a growth rate.
看一下他们的利润流和增长率
The growth rate's much higher than the discount rate.
你会发现增长率比贴现率高得多
And so most of the value exists far in the future.
公司的价值在未来相当长一段时间内还会继续保持
I did this exercise At PayPal in March of 2001.
01年3月我在Paypal也做过这个分析
We'd been in business for about 27 months.
那时我们的公司已经运转了27个月了
And we sort of had, the growth rate was 100% a year.
我们当时每年的增长率是100%
We were discounting future cashflows by about 30%.
我们用大约30%的贴现率进行贴现
And it turned out that about three quarters of the value of the business, as of 2001,
然后我们发现01年公司3/4的价值
came from cash flows in years 2011 and beyond.
来自于11年及以后的现金流
And whenever you do the math on any of these tech companies, you get an answer that's something like that.
不论你对哪家公司做此类分析结果都是相似的
So if you are trying to analyze any other tech companies in Silicon Valley, Airbnb, Twitter, Facebook,
如果你试图用这种方法去分析硅谷中其他的科技公司，例如Airbnb Twitter或者Facebook
any emerging internet companies, any of the ones in Y-Combinator.
任何新兴的互联网公司或者YC资助的公司
The math tells you that three quarters, 80, 85% of the value is coming from cash flows in years 2024 and beyond.
通过计算你会发现3/4、80%甚至85%的公司价值都来源于2024年及以后的现金流
It's very, very far in the future.
这是很远的未来了
