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One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.
这里的一个策略是为化石资产“退休”设定最后期限。
Ample notice, say a decade, gives communities enough time to create and implement plans,
明确的通知，比如10年，给社区足够的时间来创建和实施计划，
and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence to commit to what can be an intense process.
法定的结束日期给了人们足够的信心，来投身于一个紧张的过程。
I showed that in the United States, requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,
我表明，在美国，所有化石燃料发电厂要求在2035年之前关闭，
which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,
这是拜登总统电力部门的脱碳目标，
would actually allow the large majority of them to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,
实际上这将允许它们中的绝大多数达到或超过典型的寿命，
potentially giving communities some confidence that these deadlines are manageable.
这可能会让社区有一些信心，认为这些期限是可以管理的。
That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure
在基础设施新得多的地方，这可能不适用，
and so the conversation about how to choose these deadlines would look quite different.
因此关于如何选择这些最后期限的对话将非常不同。
But in general, being honest with people about what's coming,
但总的来说，诚实地告诉人们即将发生的事情，
with enough time and support to do something about it can be really transformative,
让他们有足够的时间和支持来做一些事情，这可能真是变革性的，
but it does require a commitment to the end point and to proactively ensuring people have what they need to thrive alongside transition.
但它确实需要承诺终点，并主动确保人们在过渡期间获得他们需要的东西。
That is what earns and maintains trust.
这就是赢得和维持信任的原因。
Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.
离排放目标不远了，但实施计划却很模糊。
The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.
计划外的过渡不可接受，但却很常见。
Notably, this is what we would expect to see if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough to displace fossil energy systems.
值得注意的是，如果我们只依赖清洁能源变得足够便宜，来取代化石能源系统的话，这会是我们看到的景象。
What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly
多年来我观察到的是，工厂可能会突然关闭，
with a round of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.
伴随着一轮裁员和几乎没有预先通知的破产通知，也没有对接下来发生的事情的计划。
Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community,
几年前，我在一个煤矿社区做调查，
and the morning my survey hit people's mailboxes, about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.
调查表送到人们的邮箱的那天早上，大约500名煤矿工人突然被解雇了。
Just four US coal mining companies used bankruptcy to avoid about
在2012年至2017年期间，只有四家美国煤矿公司利用破产来避免
five billion dollars in pensions and environmental cleanup obligations just between 2012 and 2017.
约50亿美元的养老金和环境清洁义务。
The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty small,
美国的煤炭行业实际上相当小，
now providing about 11 percent of primary energy, down from 18 percent a decade ago.
提供了大约11%的一次能源，远低于十年前的18%比例。
We're talking about successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure that
我们谈论的是在我达到退休年龄之前，成功地淘汰并替换
supports 80 percent of energy use globally and in the United States all before I reach retirement age.
支持全球和美国80%能源使用的基础设施。
Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time,
规划过渡是一种道德责任，需要时间，
but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future that corrects the harms of the past.
但也创造了机会，以实现公正和可持续的未来，纠正过去的伤害。
Collaboration and a laser-like focus on ensuring people have what we need to
确保人们拥有在这一过渡过程中成功所需的东西
succeed through this transition will be critical, particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.
要求合作和高度专注，这是至关重要的，特别是在过渡期与气候悲剧相冲突的情况下。
What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?
如果我们相信自己会成功，现在会做什么?
Anticipating the bumps and planning for success is the path to a just, decarbonized and sustainable world.
预测颠簸和对成功的规划是通往公正、脱碳和可持续世界的道路。
Thank you.
谢谢大家！
