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Picture this.
想象这样一幅画面。
You're in your car and you're getting worried.
你坐在车里，开始担心。
You were really, really relying on that fuel station being open.
你真的，真的很希望那个加油站营业。
Now you're not sure you're going to make it to the next one you see on your map.
现在你不确定能不能抵达地图上看到的下一个加油站。
And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.
这个地区因为不靠谱的加油站而臭名昭著。
You definitely don't have enough range to make it to the one that you know is usually working
你肯定没有足够的时间抵达你知道一定会营业的那家加油站，
or even the one that at least has decent customer service on their help line when it's down.
或者另一个即使关门也有体贴的客户服务的加油站。
So you slow way down to conserve energy and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on the freeway ahead of you.
所以你放慢速度以节省能源，当看到前面的高速公路出现在一座高山上时，你止不住叹息。
The way people are driving, there is no way you're going to make it up this hill
从人们开车的方式来看，你不可能在不消耗能源的情况下
at a safe highway speed without killing your energy efficiency.
保持安全的高速公路速度上山。
It's hot out, but you turn off your AC and remind yourself again
外面很热，但你关掉了空调，并再次提醒自己，
that charging your phone in the car outlet doesn't actually use that much energy.
用汽车插座给手机充电实际上并不会消耗那么多能量。
"Man," you think to yourself, "I remember when this was a problem for EVs.
“天呐，”你想，“我记得这是电动汽车的一个问题。
But when I bought this car, I just didn't think finding gasoline was ever going to be this much of a problem."
但当我买这辆车的时候，我根本没想到找汽油会有这么困难。”
If we succeed at reaching international climate goals, the fossil fuel infrastructure systems that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.
如果我们成功地实现了国际气候目标，支持全球约80%能源消费的大部分(如果不是全部)化石燃料基础设施系统将在未来几十年内停止使用。
The global dominance of fossil fuels and the global emergency of climate change means that
化石燃料在全球的主导地位和全球气候变化的紧急情况意味着，
this retirement imperative exists everywhere, whether infrastructure is relatively old --
无论基础设施相对陈旧
like in the US, where I work on these issues and where most of my examples come from --
(比如在美国，我研究了这些问题，同时这里也是我大多数例子的取材地)，
or relatively newer, as in many countries with more recent industrialization.
还是相对较新的(比如许多工业化进程较晚的国家)，这种停用都是无处不在的。
What I'm talking about is big infrastructure, like power plants and refineries,
我谈论的是大型基础设施，比如发电厂和炼油厂，
but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars, stoves and furnaces.
但也包括加油站、私家车、炉灶和熔炉。
Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries
化石燃料基础设施是一个复杂的高风险行业网络，
that need to be able to continue to operate safely until the new system is completely ready to take over,
需要能够在包括因气候而变复杂的紧急情况下继续安全运行，
including during emergencies complicated by climate change.
直到新系统完全准备好接管。
Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.
仅仅让这些系统消失，就会带来极大的破坏性和危险性。
We'd expect disproportionate harm to overburdened and underserved communities
我们预计，负担过重和服务水平低下的社区将受到不成比例的损害，
who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices, abandoned remediation plans and declining access to energy services.
他们无法选择从飞涨的价格中退出，放弃补救计划，并减少获得能源服务的机会。
This means ongoing fossil expenditures and a reliance on highly trained workers in industries
这意味着持续的化石支出和对本行业中
that might not outlast their careers, with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries
可能不会转岗的技术工人的依赖，同时专注于尽快淘汰这些行业，
as quickly as possible to address climate change and a host of other environmental injustices.
以应对气候变化和一系列其他环境不公正行为。
This is why we need to plan.
这就是我们需要计划的原因。
