评论
打印
Sugar high: Why sweet treats are so expensive?
糖价暴涨：为什么甜食这么贵？
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the arrival of war in one of the world’s breadbaskets sent the price of foodstuffs soaring—with one exception, sugar. But last year was worse for folk with a sweet tooth. As grain prices fell, sugar prices jumped.
当俄乌冲突于2022年开始时，世界上最大的粮仓之一爆发了战争，导致各类食品价格飙升，但糖是个例外。但对于喜欢吃甜食的人来说，去年的情况更糟。随着谷物价格下跌，糖价上涨。
Although they have fallen more recently, they remain high. So do prices of a varied class of non-essential agricultural materials we dub “gourmet commodities”.
尽管糖价最近有所回落，但仍居高不下。许多种非必需农业原料（我们称之为“美食商品”）的价格也在上涨。
The price of cocoa, up by 82% in 12 months, is at a 46-year high. The coffee market is sleepier, but prices for Arabica beans—the finer kind—are still up by 44% since 2021.
可可的价格在12个月内上涨了82%，达到46年来的最高水平。咖啡市场较为疲软，但自2021年以来，阿拉比卡咖啡豆——一种品质较高的咖啡豆——的价格仍上涨了44%。
The reason for surging prices is not that consumers have a sudden taste for Coca-Cola and KitKats, but a litany of problems in regions where gourmet commodities are produced.
价格飙升的原因不是消费者突然爱上了可口可乐和奇巧巧克力的味道，而是美食商品的生产地区出现了一系列问题。
El Nino, a climate pattern, has caused droughts in Australia, India and Thailand, three of the four biggest exporters of sugar. Torrential rain in Brazil, the largest, has complicated shipping.
厄尔尼诺气候现象在澳大利亚、印度和泰国造成了干旱，这是四大蔗糖出口国的其中之三。最大的蔗糖出口国巴西遭遇了超大暴雨，从而阻碍了海上运输。
Heavy rain through the summer months allowed the dreaded black-pod disease and swollen-shoot virus to spread in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world’s two largest cocoa producers.
夏季暴雨使得可怕的黑豆病和肿枝病毒在加纳和科特迪瓦传播，这两个国家是世界上最大的可可生产国。
Elevated prices for gourmet commodities are already feeding through into those of finished goods.
美食商品价格的上涨已经影响到了制成品的价格。
The cost of sugar and sweets rose by almost 9% in America in 2023, and several confectionery giants have warned that such goods are likely to become still more expensive over the coming year.
2023年，美国蔗糖和甜食的价格上涨了近9%，几家糖巧甜品大公司警告说，这类商品在未来一年可能会变得更加昂贵。
In theory, this should depress demand. Yet there is little sign of higher prices denting consumer appetite so far.
理论上，涨价应该会抑制需求。然而，到目前为止，几乎没有迹象表明价格上涨会削弱消费者的胃口。
Cake fans have little choice but to hope that prices will fall when El Nino fades, as is expected in June, and that farmers will start to plant more in response to existing prices.
蛋糕爱好者们别无选择，只能寄希望于厄尔尼诺现象消退后价格会下降，预计消退时间是6月，到时候农民们会因为现在的高价而开始种植更多的产糖作物。
Any respite will probably prove short-lived, however. The EU’s “Deforestation-free Regulation”—tough new rules for exports into the bloc, which cover cocoa, coffee and palm oil—will come into force at the end of 2024.
然而，任何缓和期都可能是短暂的。欧盟的《零毁林法案》将于2024年底生效，该条例是针对向欧盟出口产品的严格新规，其中包括可可、咖啡和棕榈油。
Increased compliance costs and uncertainty regarding enforcement may prompt European importers to stockpile before the deadline. Since Europe typically accounts for a third of global cocoa and coffee imports, such a rush for supply would give global markets a jolt.
增加的合规成本和执行方面的不确定性可能会促使欧洲进口商在条例生效之前囤积相关产品。由于欧洲通常占全球可可和咖啡进口的三分之一，这样的抢购热潮将给全球市场带来震荡。
More worrying still are longer-lasting phenomena. In Ghana and Ivory Coast the prices at which farmers sell to wholesalers, which are fixed by the state, remain too low; something Paul Joule of Rabobank, a Dutch lender, says dis courages new planting despite sky-high global prices.
更令人担忧的是持续时间更长的现象。在加纳和科特迪瓦，农民卖给批发商的价格由国家规定不变，一直保持在低位，荷兰合作银行的保罗·乔尔表示，尽管全球价格极高，但这种低价无法激励农民扩大种植。
He does not expect policies to change soon. And as climate change makes extreme weather more frequent, the risk that several crucial production regions suffer at the same time—and that the world’s biggest producers curb exports in response—only rises.
他预计政策不会很快改变。随着气候变化使极端天气变得更加频繁，几个关键产区同时遭受损失——全球最大的几个生产国因此限制出口——的风险将只增不减。
Thus consumers will have to pay up. Farmers will keep missing out. And the middlemen who feed on price swings will grab an ever greater slice of the pie.
这样一来，消费者将不得不为高价买单。农民们将继续错失获利的机会。而靠价格波动赚钱的中间商分得的蛋糕将越来越大。
