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Throughout history, technological progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people's lives.
纵观历史，技术进步带来了新的财富，但并不总能改善人们的生活。
Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI) will help or hurt society.
经济学家目前表示，尚不清楚人工智能对社会是有益还是有害。
Simon Johnson teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston.
西蒙·约翰逊在波士顿的麻省理工学院教授经济学。
He said AI has a lot of possibilities.
他说，人工智能有很多可能性。
But he added, "We are at a fork in the road."
但他补充说，“我们正处在一个岔路口。”
A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation where the outcome is uncertain.
岔路口是一个用来描述结果不确定的情况的短语。
McKinsey is a business consulting company.
麦肯锡公司是一家商业咨询公司。
It said AI could add between $14 trillion and $22 trillion of value to the world's economy.
它表示，人工智能可能会为世界经济增加14万亿至22万亿美元的价值。
Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards.
支持者表示，这项技术将会创造财富，提高生活水平。
Some go as far as saying AI will increase people's free time and help them be more creative.
有些人甚至表示，人工智能将会增加人们的空闲时间，帮助他们更具创造力。
But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs.
但也有人担心这项技术会导致失业。
They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology.
他们指出，好莱坞的编剧和演员担心他们会被技术取代。
The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs.
互联网的出现也带来了类似的承诺，即提高生产率、增加财富和就业。
Last month, the French bank Natixis noted in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires.
上个月，法国外贸银行在其研究中指出，大部分财富都流向了少数亿万富翁。
And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers.
而且许多工作并不需要高薪、熟练的工人。
The bank warned in its report, "We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor productivity."
该行在其报告中警告称，“在估计人工智能对劳动生产率的影响时，我们应该谨慎。”
In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI.
今年7月，经济合作与发展组织发布了其对5300名工人关于人工智能的意见调查。
Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction.
有些工人希望这项技术能提高工资和工作满意度。
But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard.
但他们也担心，这项技术可能会迫使人们过于努力地工作。
Such concerns are not unfounded.
这种担忧并非毫无根据。
History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful.
历史表明，技术进步的经济影响通常是不确定的、不平等的，甚至是有害的。
Johnson recently published a book, Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu, another economist from MIT.
约翰逊最近与麻省理工学院的另一位经济学家达隆·阿西莫格鲁合著了一本名为《权力与进步》的书。
They studied technological progress over the last 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel, and even food shopping.
他们研究了过去1000年的技术进步，包括服装生产、火车旅行，甚至是食品购物。
The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn.
这两位经济学家研究了珍妮纺纱机，它使棉花和羊毛更容易变成纱线。
They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the late 1700s.
他们说，该设备有助于服装生产，并在18世纪末为许多人创造了财富。
However, it also increased the demand for cotton and led to longer hours for workers.
然而，这也增加了对棉花的需求，导致工人的工作时间延长。
The demand also led to the growth of slavery in the southern United States.
这种需求也导致了美国南部奴隶制的发展。
Johnson noted that it is easier to create something new than to make sure it works for everyone.
约翰逊指出，创造新事物比确保它适用于每个人容易得多。
His book shows how the arrival of rail travel improved the lives of many people in England in the 1800s.
他的书展示了19世纪铁路旅行的到来如何改善了许多英国人的生活。
People were able to travel longer distances and eat fresh food because it could move faster from farms to cities.
人们能够走得更远，吃到新鲜的食物，因为从农场到城市的运输速度更快。
On the other hand, Johnson said self-checkout technology at food stores does not lower the cost or make life easier for people.
另一方面，约翰逊表示，食品店的自助结账技术并没有降低成本，也没有让人们的生活更轻松。
All it does is reduce the number of workers and help businesses lower labor costs.
它只是减少了工人数量，帮助企业降低了劳动力成本。
As for AI technology, Johnson wonders if it will make existing inequalities worse, or "could it help us get back to something fairer?"
至于人工智能技术，约翰逊想知道它是否会使现有的不平等现象变得更加严重，还是“它能帮助我们回到更公平的状态吗？”
I'm Dan Friedell.
丹·弗里德尔为您播报。
译文为可可英语翻译，未经授权请勿转载！
