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We're at the start of summer in a presidential election year and waiting to find out if one of the major party candidates is guilty of a crime.
现在正值总统大选年的初夏，我们正在等着看主要政党候选人是否是有罪的。
A jury is deliberating in the trial of former President Donald Trump.
陪审团正在审议对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的审判。
They're deciding if he falsified business records, which is a felony in New York if you do it in pursuit of some other crime.
他们正在判定他是否伪造了商业记录，在纽约，如果是为了其他犯罪而伪造商业记录，则属于重罪。
However they decide, a much larger jury of his peers get the chance to make its own choice soon afterwards.
无论他们如何决定，他的同行组成的一个更大的陪审团很快就有机会做出选择。
So what are voters thinking?
那么选民们在想什么呢？
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll offers some insight, and NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro joins us once again.
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist民调提供了一些见解，NPR高级政治编辑兼记者多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗再次来到我们节目。
Domenico, good morning.
多梅尼科，早上好。
Hey, Steve.
嘿，史蒂夫。
Thanks for getting up early.
谢谢你起得这么早。
OK, so we've talked about this.
好的，我们已经谈过了。
The election is not later this fall.
选举不会晚于今年秋天。
It's now - the first debate in less than a month, early voting startlingly soon, and here's this trial.
现在是不到一个月后的第一场辩论，提前投票很快就会开始，现在就是这场审判。
How are voters thinking about it?
选民们是怎么想的？
Well, I mean, the overwhelming sentiment among respondents was that a guilty verdict would not make any difference.
我的意思是，受访者中压倒性的情绪是，有罪的判决不会有任何影响。
Two-thirds said that it would make no difference.
三分之二的人说这不会有什么不同。
Another 15%, mostly Republicans, said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to vote for him in the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
另有15%的人(主要是共和党人)表示，在最新的NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist民调中，有罪判决将使他们更有可能投票给他。
Our producer Janet Woojeong Lee reached a couple of respondents from the survey, and they had very different takes on the trial.
我们的制片人珍妮特-李访问了参与调查的几个受访者，他们对审判有非常不同的看法。
First here's Mike Burr, a Democrat from Georgia.
首先是来自佐治亚州的民主党人迈克·伯尔。
The trial kind of affirms that I don't think anybody should really be voting for Donald Trump.
这场审判在某种程度上肯定了我认为任何人都不应该投票给唐纳德·特朗普。
I don't think Donald Trump is good for the country.
我不认为唐纳德·特朗普对这个国家有好处。
But then there's John Duvall, a Republican from Tennessee.
但接下来是来自田纳西州的共和党人约翰·杜瓦尔。
I think it's a big farce.
我认为这是一场大闹剧。
There's an attack on Donald Trump.
有人攻击唐纳德·特朗普。
I'll vote for him more because of what they're doing, because it's illegal.
因为他们的所作所为，我会更多地投票给他，因为这是非法的。
If they send him to jail, I'll still vote for him 'cause the whole thing is a political attack on him.
如果他们把他送进监狱，我仍然会投票给他，因为整件事都是对他的政治攻击。
I mean, of course, the trial is not illegal, but it's not surprising to hear this kind of view on the right because it's what conservative media is saying day in and day out.
我的意思是，当然，审判并不违法，但听到右翼人士的这种观点并不令人惊讶，因为这是保守派媒体每天都在说的话。
But I think it's important context because this is what we live in in this country.
但我认为这是重要的背景，因为这是我们在这个国家生活的环境。
People have very different views of our politics and very different perceptions, especially of Donald Trump, and those views are, for the most part, very locked in.
人们对我们的政治有非常不同的看法，对唐纳德·特朗普的看法也非常不同，这些观点在很大程度上是非常固定的。
But I will say former president found guilty is not a headline Trump wants.
但我要说，前总统被判有罪不是特朗普想要的头条新闻。
Oh, sure, because it's a very close election.
哦，当然，因为这是一场势均力敌的选举。
It's about a few voters on the margins.
这是关于处于边缘地位的少数选民。
So would anybody's vote be affected by the verdict?
那么，有没有人的投票会受到判决的影响呢？
Well, one group that's important here is younger voters.
嗯，这里一个重要的群体是年轻选民。
I mean, Biden's been struggling with them in the polls.
我的意思是，拜登在民意调查中一直在与他们作斗争。
Certainly he's not doing as well with them currently as he did in 2020.
当然，他目前与他们的关系不如 2020 年那么好。
And for those under 45, about 1 in 5 of them say a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
对于45岁以下的人，约五分之一的人表示，有罪的判决会降低他们投票给特朗普的可能性。
But if Trump is found not guilty, the same number say that they'd be more likely to vote for him.
但如果特朗普被判无罪，同样数量的人表示他们更有可能投票给他。
So they might be somewhat persuadable, but one, I have to say, some of those are partisans.
因此，他们可能会被说服，但我不得不说，其中有些人是游击队员。
Yeah.
嗯。
And two, it's also important to note that saying a verdict makes you less likely to do something doesn't necessarily mean that's what you're actually going to do.
其次，还需要注意的是，说某项判决会降低你做某事的可能性，并不一定意味着你真的会这么做。
Yeah, fair point, fair point.
是的，公平的观点，公平的观点。
Now, you said something else there.
现在，你在说了些别的。
You said Biden is struggling with younger voters.
你说拜登在年轻选民中苦苦挣扎。
How bad is it as we head into summer?
随着夏天将至，情况有多糟糕？
Yeah, Biden has just a 24% approval rating with voters 18 to 29.
是的，拜登的支持率只有24%，选民的支持率是18%到29%。
Wow.
哇。
Sixty-two percent say that they have an unfavorable opinion of him.
62%的人说他们对他有负面看法。
Those are terrible numbers for a Democrat in particular.
对于一位民主党人来说，这些数字尤其可怕。
So what's going on here?
这是怎么回事？
I mean, our pollsters tell me that affordability and housing are big pieces of this.
我的意思是，我们的民意调查人员告诉我，负担能力和住房是其中很大的一部分。
And the data show that on everything from the economy to immigration to the war between Israel and Hamas, younger voters have a worse opinion of Biden than voters overall, and they're less likely to think that he has the mental fitness to do the job.
数据显示，从经济到移民，再到以色列和哈马斯之间的战争，年轻选民对拜登的看法比整体选民更差，他们不太可能认为他有足够的精神健康来完成这项工作。
That's all had a huge effect on how Biden stacks up against Trump.
所有这些都对拜登如何与特朗普抗衡产生了巨大的影响。
And when third parties are introduced, it just gets worse.
当第三方被引入时，情况只会变得更糟。
I mean, that doesn't necessarily mean younger voters are flocking to Trump, but even them not showing up would be a big win for Trump.
我的意思是，这并不一定意味着年轻选民蜂拥支持特朗普，但即使他们没有出现，对特朗普来说也是一个巨大的胜利。
How much trouble is each of these unpopular candidates going to have in turning out voters?
这些不受欢迎的候选人在投票时会遇到多大的麻烦？
Well, they certainly do have some difficulty and a big challenge ahead of them.
嗯，他们确实有一些困难和巨大的挑战摆在他们面前。
I mean, Biden has a host of turnout challenges - you know, younger voters, younger Black voters, Latinos.
我的意思是，拜登面临着大量的投票率挑战--你知道，年轻选民，年轻黑人选民，拉美裔选民。
They need to do a lot of work, the Biden campaign, to get them engaged.
他们需要做很多工作，才能让他们参与进来拜登的竞选活动。
But Trump also has a challenge ahead of him because college-educated white voters are starting to side more with Biden, and they vote at very high rates, as compared to Trump's core of his base, white voters without college degrees, who tend to vote at much lower rates traditionally.
但特朗普也面临着一个挑战，因为受过大学教育的白人选民开始更多地站在拜登一边，他们的投票率非常高，而特朗普的核心基础是没有大学学位的白人选民，他们的投票率传统上要低得多。
Domenico, thanks for the insights.
多梅尼科，谢谢你的见解。
You're welcome.
不客气
That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro.
这是NPR的多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗的报道。
