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昨天，我们开车经过了美丽的广州歌剧院，让我想起过去。我是一九八四年第一次来中国。现在的变化真大。那时，中国一九七八年实行的改革开放政策刚刚开始有了效果。我当时无法想象一家外国公司能参加广州歌剧院的设计。这是个非常有影响的建筑。澳大利亚马歇尔戴公司（Marshall Day）为广州歌剧院做声学设计。这是中国三十年来巨大变化的标志。过去是文革时期封闭的中国，现在是二十一世纪开放的中国。
Yesterday, driving into Guangzhou and past the strikingly beautiful new Opera House, I was reminded of how much China has changed since I first came here in 1984. At that time, just as the China’s economic reform and open door policies of 1978 were starting to take effect, it was unthinkable that a foreign company could play a part in designing such an important and cutting-edge building in China. The Opera House, whose acoustics were designed by Australian firm Marshall Day, is a symbol of how far China has come in just 30 years, from the inward looking China of the Cultural Revolution, to the outward looking China of the 21st century.
三十年前，大多数观察家不相信中国能进行大规模的经济改革。可是事实证明，他们错了。今天，我要和大家讲讲中国过去三十年的经济增长，还有今后三十年，经济增长模式变了，中国会怎么样。如果我们觉得过去三十年的变化很大，以后的变化会更大。然后，我想谈谈这对澳中未来经济关系的影响。我的想法是中国二点零。还有澳大利亚-中国二点零。
30 years ago, most China watchers were skeptical about China’s capacity for large scale economic reform. But China has proven the skeptics wrong. My purpose today is not just to reflect on the last 30 years of China’s economic growth but also to reflect on the next 30 – as China changes its growth model for the future. Because if we think the changes of the last 30 years have been dramatic, this I believe is only a foretaste of what is to come. And then I want to reflect on what this means for the future of the Australia-China economic relationship. It’s what I call China 2.0. It’s what I call Australia-China 2.0.
数字能说明中国取得的成就。一九八零年以来，中国的实际GDP年均增长百分之十。中国人均GDP从一九八零年的二百零五美元增长到今天的四千三百八十二美元。中国在一九八一年有百分之八十四的贫困人口，而现在,只有百分之二十。近五亿人摆脱了贫困。这很了不起。
The figures tell the story so far. Since 1980, China’s real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 10%. This has seen China’s per capita GDP grow from US$205 in 1980 to US$4,382 (in nominal terms) today. The share of China’s population living below the poverty line of $1.25 per day has fallen from 84 per cent in 1981 to 20 per cent today. Around 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty. By world standards, this is a truly remarkable achievement.
不到三十年的时间，中国从贫穷、封闭、农业为主的经济变成了富裕、国际化的城市经济。中国过去三十年的经济成就主要是依靠充足的廉价劳动力，这是中国最大的竞争优势。中国的制造业发展很快，越来越多的农民工到珠三角、长三角等制造业中心地区工作。
Within thirty years China has transformed itself from an impoverished, isolated and mostly agrarian economy to the increasingly wealthy, internationalized and urban economy we see today. China’s economic achievements over the last thirty years have been driven by its biggest competitive advantage, an abundant supply of low-cost labour. Year after year, we see more and more rural migrants from China’s countryside moving to its manufacturing hubs like the Pearl and Yangtze River deltas to participate in China’s booming manufacturing sector.
一九八零年，中国的城市化率,只有百分之十九。五个中国人里只有不到一个住在城市。二零一零年，城市化率是百分之四十七。换句话说，过去三十年中国的城市人口增加了四点四六亿。
In 1980, China’s rate of urbanization was only 19 per cent. Fewer than 1 in 5 Chinese citizens lived in cities. By 2010, this had increased to 47 per cent. In other words, China’s urban population has increased by 446 million over the past 30 years.
这段时间，中国是高储蓄、低消费，从而有能力投资城市基础设施，发展生产力。一九八二年居民消费占GDP百分之四十八，二零零九年只占百分之三十四。储蓄从一九八二年占GDP百分之三十六相应增加到二零零九年的百分之五十三。
Over this time, China has also been able to rely on its high savings and low household-consumption rates to fund investment in urban infrastructure and productive capacity. Household consumption as a percentage of GDP in China fell from 48.9 per cent in 1982 to just 34.9 per cent in 2009. Correspondingly, China’s gross savings as a percentage of GDP increased from 36.3 per cent in 1982 to 53.6 per cent in 2009.
