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因此，过去三十年，中国经济发生了巨大的转变，中国经济的国际影响力也发生了改变。
These radical economic transformations over the last three decades have also resulted in the transformation of China’s economic significance.
中国在世界上的经济规模
China’s Global Economic Size
首先我要谈到一些经济数据。我不想说得太专业，但是这些数据比较重要，它们可以说明中国目前的经济状况。
I want to first raise a few numbers. While I don’t want to get too technical, these are numbers which are important in highlighting the current state of China’s economy.
中国现在是世界第二大经济体。去年，中国GDP增长约百分之十点三，达到, 五点九万亿美元。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测中国经济到二零一六年会再翻一番，GDP超过十一点二万亿美元。尽管中国经济还是比美国规模小，但是差距在快速缩小。要知道,在一九八零年,中国的经济规模只有美国的百分之七点三。至于中国经济总量什么时候, 超过美国，现在有争论。但是按照现在的趋势，中国很可能在本世纪的第三个十年之前, 成为最大的经济体。这个没有争论。
China now stands tall as the second-largest economy in the world. Last year, China’s GDP grew by around 10.3 per cent to reach US$5.9 trillion. By 2016, the IMF predicts that China’s economy will almost double again in size, with a forecast GDP of over US$11.2 trillion. While this will still be well short of the size of the US economy (forecast GDP of US$18.8 trillion in 2016), China has closed the gap very fast. Remember, in 1980, China’s GDP was just 7.3 per cent the size of the US economy. When China actually overtakes the US economy in terms of absolute size is hotly debated. But what isn’t in debate is that on current projections, China’s economy is likely to be the largest in the world before the end of the third decade of this century.
中国的很多经济指标，都远远超过了,其他国家。二零一零年，中国是世界最大货物贸易出口国，占全球货物出口的，百分之十点四，领先美国和德国。此外，二零一零年，中国是第二大货物贸易进口国，仅次于美国。中国是全球最大的汽车市场。二零一零年，中国汽车销量一千八百万辆，同比增长百分之三十二。更加值得注意的是，二零一零年，中国是商业服务第四大出口国，出口额一千七百亿美元，同比增长百分之三十二。同时也是商业服务第三大进口国，进口额一千九百二十亿美元，同比增长百分之二十二。中国有八个城市人口超过一千万，九十三个城市人口超过五百万。到二零二零年，中国将有六个省的GDP超过一万亿美元，相当于六个俄罗斯(或者西班牙或加拿大)。
On a significant number of measures, China already stands well above the rest. In 2010, China was the world’s largest merchandise exporter (US$1,578bn) with a 10.4 per cent share of world merchandise exports, ahead of the US (US$1,278bn) and Germany (US$1.269bn). China was the world’s second-largest merchandise importer in 2010 (US$1,395bn) behind the US (US$1,968bn). China is also home to the world’s largest automotive market. In 2010, 18 million automobiles were sold in the Chinese market, an increase of 32 per cent year on year. But perhaps even more significant, and a harbinger of things to come, is that in 2010 China was the fourth-largest exporter of commercial services – worth US$170bn, a 32 per cent year-on-year increase compared with 2009. As well, it was the third-largest importer of commercial services at US$192bn; a 22 per cent increase year-on-year. Eight Chinese cities have a population of more than 10 million, and 93 have more than 5 million. By 2020, China will have six provinces with an annual GDP of more than US$1 trillion, equal to six countries the size of Russia (or Spain or Canada).
中国的崛起依赖大量资源。二零零九年，中国超过美国成为最大能源消费国。预计中国能源年均需求量在二零零八和二零三五年间,会上升百分之七十五。中国很多矿石资源的消费量也是世界第一。包括铝、铜、镍、锌、铅、锡、铁矿石,和煤，特别是铁矿石和煤的需求很大。二零零九年，中国消费近三十二亿吨煤。澳大利亚是最大的, 煤出口国，二零零九年出口二点七五亿吨，仅仅相当于中国需求的百分之十。去年，中国也是世界第一大钢材消费国，占全球，百分之四十六。到二零一六年，中国粗钢消费量将接近十亿吨，占预计全球消费的百分之五十二，约为预计第二大消费国印度的九倍。这些经济数字让人惊叹，向我们展现一幅宏大的蓝图。
China’s emergence has, of course, been massively resource intensive. In 2009, China overtook the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Between 2008 and 2035, China’s per year energy demand is forecast to increase by 75 per cent (International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010). On the mineral resource side, China is also in first place on many fronts. It is now the world’s largest consumer of aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, iron ore and coal. China’s appetite for steel and coal is particularly striking. In 2009, China consumed around 3.2 billion tonnes of coal domestically. To put this into perspective, Australia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, exported 275 million tonnes of coal in 2009, less than 10 per cent of what China consumed. Last year, China was the world’s largest user of steel, around 46 per cent of global consumption. By 2016, China’s crude steel consumption is forecast to total just under 1 billion tonnes, over 52 per cent of forecast world consumption and almost nine times the volume of the world’s second largest forecast consumer, India. These numbers are staggering and they paint a big strategic picture.
现在我要谈到一个新的 – 但是有直接关系的题目，那就是中国改变增长模式。
I want to now discuss a new topic, but one which follows naturally from what I’ve just discussed – that is China’s Changing Growth Model
