1.Supporting Growth
一、支持增长
The first dimension is to maintain the current growth momentum. This requires what we at the Fund have called a "three-pronged strategy" – the right mix of fiscal, monetary, and structural measures tailored to individual country needs.
第一个方面是维持当前的增长势头。这就要求采取基金组织所谓的“三管齐下的策略”——针对各国的具体需要,恰当组合各项财政、货币和结构性措施。
For example, in a number of economies, demand is still weak and inflation is not yet durably back to target. This calls for continued monetary support and a greater emphasis on growth-friendly fiscal policies – revamping tax and benefit systems to improve incentives and boosting high-quality infrastructure investment in countries that have room in their budgets.
例如,在一些经济体,需求依然疲软,通胀也未稳定回到目标水平。这就需要继续提供货币支持,并且更加重视有益于增长的财政政策——例如,改革税收和福利制度以强化激励,以及在有预算空间的国家扩大高质量的基础设施投资。
These measures should be combined with structural reforms to lift potential growth. Here in the euro area, a good example is lowering barriers to entry in retail and professional services.
这些措施应当结合各项结构性改革以提升潜在增长率。比如,欧元区采取的一项有效做法是降低进入零售和专业服务领域的壁垒。
More fundamentally, policymakers need to reinvigorate productivity. Over the long term, this is the most important source of higher income and rising living standards.
更为根本的是,政策制定者需要重振生产率。从长远来看,这是增加收入和提高生活水平提高的最重要渠道。
But what can governments do to boost productivity?
但各国政府应该如何提高生产率?
They should start by fostering innovation. This includes investing more in education and infrastructure, and providing tax incentives for research and development.
首先应当促进创新。例如,更多地投资于教育和基础设施,以及为研究和开发活动提供税收优惠。
Our analysis shows that, if advanced economies increased private R&D by 40 percent on average, they could increase their GDP by 5 percent in the long term.
我们的分析显示,如果发达经济体的私人研发活动平均扩大40%,那么它们的GDP在长期内将增长5%。
And just as we need more innovation, we also need more trade. Why? Because trade promotes innovation-sharing and encourages firms to invest in new technologies and more efficient business practices.
除了需要更多的创新,我们同样需要更多的贸易。为什么?因为贸易能促进创新的共享,并鼓励公司投资于新技术和更高效的商业行为。
For example, we estimate that China's integration into the global trading system accounted for as much as 10 percent of the average overall productivity increase in advanced economies between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s.
例如,我们估计,中国融入全球贸易体系对20世纪90年代中期至21世纪最初十年中期发达经济体平均总体生产率增长的贡献高达10%。
Enormous gains like that translate over time into higher living standards. Today, billions of people enjoy longer, healthier, and more prosperous lives, largely because of our ability to harness the power of trade and productivity.
随着时间的推移,此类巨大收益转化成了更高的生活水平。今天,之所以数十亿人能拥有更长的寿命并过上更健康、更富足的生活,主要是因为我们能够利用贸易和生产率的力量。
But we also know, of course, that technology and trade come with negative side-effects – from job losses in shrinking sectors to social challenges in those communities and regions that have been left behind by structural change.
我们当然也知道,技术和贸易会产生消极的副作用——例如,萎缩行业内的失业,结构性改革给一些群体和地区带来的社会挑战,等等。