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Conversation Two
对话二
Kathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics.
凯西，混沌理论貌似是物理学或数学的分支。
You are an economist, so how does it influence your work
你是一名经济学家，那么这对你的工作有什么影响？
Well, in several ways.
嗯，主要是一下几方面。
I am responsible for financial development programs in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do.
我负责全球很多各地区的金融发展项目，所以根据现有的形势对经济趋势的长远规划以及预测就是我的使命。
Chaos theory was developed by scientists, trying to explain the movement of the planets and the changes in environmental conditions.
混沌理论是由科学家发现的，用来研究行星运转和环境变化。
Both of these things are also about making long-term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
上述的这些都属于可以预测未来形势的现有依据。
Are many economists involved in this field
这个领域里有很多经济学家吗？
An increasing number.
只能说这个数量在逐年增加。
In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
20世纪90年代，很多经济学家开始将混沌理论看做可为预测提供模型的途径。
What kind of models are we talking about here
我们所说的这个模型是指什么？
Well, that's a good question, because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren't any models as such there aren't guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change in development.
哦，问的好。因为混沌理论的基本观点是并没有成文的具体模型，有的只是在发展的过程中不断变化的模式。
Doesn't that mean that forecasting is impossible
这是不是说所谓的预测是不可能的？
No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge.
是的，但是正是如此才更具挑战性。
Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchanges prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constancy.
曼德博曾对股票交易价格进行分析，比如说，最后的结果虽然各有千秋，但是这中间存在某些恒定性。
What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible variables.
我们需要做的就是确保了解这些因素，并把所有的可能性纳入考虑的范围内。
But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of planets
那经济和金融领域的工作都是以气候变化或行星运动为参照的吗？
Well, no, of course not.
不，当然不是。
There are certain underlying similarities.
他们只是有潜在的相似之处而已。
But we have to leave them for another time.
下次有时间咱们再讨论这些。
Questions 13 to 15 are based on the conversation you have just heard.
问题13到15是根据上面对话所提出的问题。
Question 13. What is the woman's profession?
问题13 女性的职业是什么？
Question 14. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
问题14 混沌理论起先是用来分析什么的？
Question 15. What are the speakers mainly talking about?
问题15 对话中的两位主要在谈论什么？
