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A particular worry in the Treasury market is that a doom loop could arise from the “basis trade”.
国债市场特别担忧的是“基差交易”可能引发恶性循环。
This is popular with hedge funds and has minted fortunes at some of America’s largest.
基差交易在对冲基金中很受欢迎，并且在美国一些最大的对冲基金中创造了巨额财富。
It attempts to profit from the difference in price between Treasury bonds and Treasury futures contracts, caused by high demand for the futures from asset managers.
这种交易试图从国债与国债期货合约之间的价格差异中获利，资产管理公司对期货的高需求会带来这种价格差异。
Traders exploit this by buying Treasuries and selling futures contracts.
交易者通过购买国债并卖出期货合约来从中牟利。
To amplify the returns, they borrow using the Treasuries they have bought as collateral, then recycle the cash into even more Treasuries.
为了放大收益，他们用已购买的国债作为抵押进行借款，然后将现金再次用于购买更多的国债。
Thanks to this procedure, hedge funds are short some $1trn-worth of Treasury futures.
得益于这一操作，对冲基金做空了价值约1万亿美元的国债期货。
The trade is profitable for as long as the cost of borrowing, and meeting margin calls, remains lower than the difference between Treasury bonds and futures.
只要借贷成本和满足保证金追缴的费用仍低于国债与期货之间的价差，这种交易就能盈利。
With lots of leverage, it can generate vast returns.
凭借高杠杆，能带来巨大回报。
But “it is like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”, bristles one hedge-fund manager.
但是一位对冲基金经理愤愤道，“这就像在压路机前面捡硬币”。
Funds can get squashed when markets plummet, either because credit dries up and leaves them unable to renew their borrowing, or because they must suddenly meet large margin calls on positions that have plunged into the red.
当市场暴跌时，基金可能被碾碎，原因要么是信贷枯竭，导致无法续借资金，要么是因为必须突然为已陷入亏损的头寸追加巨额保证金。
When the bet is unwound, perhaps because yields have moved sharply and unexpectedly, funds are forced to sell Treasuries fast—compounding the selling to meet margin calls in other asset classes.
当押注被迫平仓时（可能是因为收益率出现剧烈且意外的波动），基金不得不迅速抛售国债，同时还需在其他资产类别中追加保证金，从而加剧抛售压力。
In 2020 dealer banks were overwhelmed by the volume of Treasuries being sold, meaning that liquidity dried up.
2020年，交易商银行因国债抛售量过大而不堪重负，这意味着流动性枯竭了。
Something similar may have happened this time, too.
这次可能也发生了类似的事情。
Before the ructions, banks’ inventories were already stocked full of Treasuries, giving them little capacity to handle more selling.
在关税风波之前，银行的库存已经存满了国债，让它们无力应对更多的抛售。
Should trading seize up once again, the Fed would have to intervene, acting as buyer of last resort and offering emergency loans to systemically important firms in need.
如果交易再次停滞，美联储将不得不介入，充当最后买家，并向需要帮助的在金融体系中至关重要的企业提供紧急贷款。
Today’s political backdrop would put central bankers in an invidious position, however.
然而，当今的政治背景会让央行行长们陷入了招致怨恨的境地。
It was one thing for policymakers to backstop Treasuries when the problem they faced was a liquidity crunch brought on by covid lockdowns.
上一次政策制定者为国债提供支持，是因为新冠疫情封锁引发了流动性紧缩。
This time, it is anyone’s guess how much of the move in Treasury yields was down to the system malfunctioning, and how much reflects a loss of faith by investors in the bonds themselves.
而这一次，国债收益率的变动有多少是系统故障所致，又有多少反映了投资者对债券本身失去信心，谁也说不准。
After all, Mr Trump’s assault on the global trading system has dented confidence in American policymaking.
毕竟，特朗普对全球贸易体系的攻击削弱了人们对美国政策制定的信心。
It is only natural to conclude that the country’s sovereign debt has become less safe, and that Treasury yields should accordingly incorporate more of a risk premium.
美国主权债务（即国债）的安全性下降，国债收益也相应地包含更多的风险溢价，这是理所当然的结论。
Were the Fed to intervene in markets, in other words, it would prompt questions over whether it was simply protecting financial stability or also trying to suppress such a risk premium.
换句话说，如果美联储干预市场，就会引发疑问：美联储究竟只是为了维护金融体系稳定，还是也在努力压制这种风险溢价？
Then there is the question of how far central bankers can use monetary policy to ease financial conditions and reduce the risk of systemic damage.
还有一个问题是，央行能在多大程度上运用货币政策来缓解金融状况，并降低系统性损害的风险。
Under other circumstances, they might opt for rapid rate cuts.
在其他情况下，央行可能会选择快速降息。
Yet even though Mr Trump delayed his tariffs, investors are still betting inflation will rise.
然而，尽管特朗普推迟了征收关税，投资者仍押注通胀将会上升。
They fear stagflation—a nasty combination of inflation and stagnant growth—that would constrain any doves at the Fed.
他们担心滞胀（通货膨胀与经济停滞并存的糟糕局面）将束缚美联储中任何鸽派人物的手脚。
The greatest threat surely still comes from politics.
最大的威胁无疑仍来自政治。
Even as some trade barriers have been postponed, those between America and China have been ratcheted to ludicrous levels.
尽管部分贸易壁垒的实施被推迟，但中美之间的壁垒已攀升至荒谬的水平。
And it would be reckless to assume the shocks are over, or that foreign investors’ faith in American assets, now shaken, can be magically restored.
如果认为冲击已经结束，或者外国投资者对美国资产的信心在已经动摇后还能够神奇地恢复，这种想法是鲁莽的。
How much more can the system take before something really does break?
金融体系在真正崩溃之前还能承受多少冲击？
