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HONG KONG — China’s central bank said Friday night that it would start tracking the value of the country’s currency against a basket of many other currencies and not just the dollar. The move is likely to reignite speculation about the possibility of another devaluation by Beijing and could fan trade tensions.
香港——中国央行上周五晚表示，将开始跟踪人民币与一篮子其他主要货币的汇率，而不仅仅是与美元的汇率。此举预计将再次引发人们对北京让人民币贬值的可能性的猜测，并可能导致贸易关系紧张。
The People’s Bank of China posted a commentary on its website saying it would calculate and release the value of the renminbi based on a basket of foreign currencies, after many years of relying overwhelmingly on calculations based on the renminbi’s value in dollars.
中国人民银行在其网站上发的一篇评论文章中说，将发布参考一篮子货币计算的人民币汇率。多年来，人民币价值的计算基本上是以美元为参考的。
The Chinese central bank did not say when it might make such a move, which could rock global financial markets.
中国央行并未透露此举可能何时开始，这样做有可能导致全球金融市场动荡。
The last change in the central bank’s method for determining the renminbi’s exchange rate occurred in August and accompanied an immediate 2 percent devaluation. That was followed by a further slide in the renminbi in the next couple of days of trading, before the Chinese central bank intervened heavily to keep the currency from tumbling further.
央行最近一次改变其确定人民币汇率的方法是今年8月，随后立刻发生了人民币相对美元的2％贬值。在那之后的几个交易日，人民币对美元的汇率进一步下滑，后来央行进行了大量干预，以保持人民币汇率不再进一步下跌。
With the American economy expanding while Europe, Japan and many emerging markets languish, the dollar has rallied strongly for the last couple of years, and many economists expect that to continue. Basing the renminbi’s value on a group of currencies would cause it to fall against the dollar if the dollar’s strength persisted in the coming months.
随着美国经济增长速度提高，而欧洲、日本及许多新兴市场的经济继续停滞不前，美元在过去的几年中出现强劲反弹，许多经济学家预测这一趋势将继续下去。如果美元在未来几个月持续走强的话，参考一篮子货币的人民币价值会导致人民币兑美元的汇率下跌。
“Managing the renminbi’s value relative to a basket of currencies rather than just the U.S. dollar would allow China to make a smoother transition to a more market-determined exchange rate,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who used to be the head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “One consequence of such a shift, given the prospects of further dollar strength in the coming months, would be a further depreciation of the renminbi relative to the dollar.”
“参考一篮子货币、而不仅仅参考美元来管理人民币的价值，将会让中国过渡到更多地由市场决定汇率的过程更加平缓，”康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，他曾担任国际货币基金组织中国部负责人。“鉴于美元在未来几个月进一步走强的前景，这种变化的后果之一，将是人民币相对美元的进一步贬值。”
Mr. Prasad added that “this would certainly be helpful for the Chinese economy, although at best marginally, at a time of slowing growth and weak exports.”
普拉萨德补充说：“这肯定对中国经济有所帮助，但是，在经济增长放缓、出口疲软时期，这种帮助最多也是微乎其微的。”
The possibility of further devaluation of the renminbi also complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision next week on whether to begin raising short-term interest rates. Janet L. Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, and other top Fed officials strongly hinted last week that they would start pushing rates higher, anticipating that the general price level in the United States would start rising if they left rates near zero.
人民币进一步贬值的可能性也让美联储下周是否开始提高短期利率的决定复杂化。美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)及美联储其他高级官员上周强烈暗示，他们将开始提高利率，他们预计，如果利率维持在接近零的水平，美国的整体物价水平将开始上升。
But a weaker renminbi relative to the dollar would make Chinese goods even cheaper in the United States, helping to forestall inflation. Prices in the United States for imported goods have fallen nearly 10 percent in the last year, although partly because of falling commodity prices.
但是，人民币相对美元走弱将使中国商品在美国变得更加便宜，这有助于防止通货膨胀。去年，美国进口商品的价格下跌了近10％，虽然部分原因是大宗商品价格的下跌。
The People’s Bank, China’s central bank, clearly pegged the renminbi to the dollar until July 2005. It then allowed a one-time appreciation in the renminbi and said it was starting to peg the renminbi to a basket of currencies. But many statistical analyses by Western economists have shown that the People’s Bank essentially adopted a program of very gradual appreciation to the dollar, with the renminbi showing little correlation with other currencies.
中国人民银行是中国的中央银行，它曾明确地让人民币与美元固定挂钩，直到2005年7月。那时，央行曾让人民币与美元的汇率一次性升值，并表示开始让人民币与一篮子货币挂钩。但是，西方经济学家做的大量统计分析表明，中国人民银行基本上采取了一种让人民币兑美元的汇率逐渐升值的做法，人民币的走向与其他货币的走向几乎没有相关性。
As the dollar has strengthened, and as wages in China have risen by double-digit annual percentages, China has found its export competitiveness beginning to weaken. The People’s Bank said in its statement on Friday evening that the renminbi appreciated 2.9 percent against the central bank’s new index during the first 11 months of this year, even as the renminbi weakened slightly against the dollar.
随着美元的走强，也随着中国的工资以两位数的年度百分比上升，中国发现自己的出口竞争力开始减弱。中国人民银行周五晚发布的评论文章称，从新发布的指数来看，人民币在今年头11个月里与去年年底相比升值了2.9％，尽管人民币相对美元有小幅贬值。
As a result, the central bank said, the renminbi “is still a strong currency.”
央行表示，其结果是，人民币“仍属强势货币”。
The International Monetary Fund last week added the renminbi to the fund’s special drawing rights, essentially anointing it as one of the world’s leading reserve currencies alongside the dollar, euro, yen and British pound. China had intervened heavily to preserve the value of the renminbi through its many months of campaigning for accession to the special drawing rights, and the I.M.F.’s decision may have reduced the need for Beijing to continue intervening.
国际货币基金组织上周批准人民币加入特别提款权（简称SDR）货币篮子，基本上把人民币认定为与美元、欧元、日元和英镑具有同等地位的世界主要储备货币之一。中国为获得特别提款权进行了好几个月的努力，其间曾大力介入市场以维持人民币的价值，国际货币基金组织的决定也许减少了北京继续介入的必要性。
China has the world’s largest overall trade surplus and consistently runs extremely large trade surpluses with the United States, exporting $4 worth of goods to the United States for every $1 of American goods that it imports. The Commerce Department released trade data last week showing that the American trade deficit in goods rose to $306 billion in the first 10 months of this year, compared with $282.9 billion during the same period last year.
中国拥有世界上最大的总体贸易顺差，并长期与美国保持巨大的贸易顺差，中国从美国每进口价值一美元的商品，就向美国出口价值四美元的商品。美国商务部上周公布的贸易数据显示，美国与中国的商品贸易赤字在今年头10个月已达到3060亿美元，而去年同期的商品贸易赤字为2829亿美元。
That was roughly half the overall American trade deficit in goods. American banks and other service providers have been asking Beijing for greater regulatory permission to do business in mainland China, which could someday begin to narrow the deficit.
这大约是美国总体商品贸易逆差的一半。美国的银行及其他服务供应商一直在要求北京放宽管理许可，让它们能在中国大陆开展业务，也许有朝一日这可以开始缩小美中贸易赤字。
China needs to run very large trade surpluses because it has considerable overcapacity in many industrial sectors, and domestic consumption has been growing but not fast enough. Investment in China has been weak.
中国需要有非常大的贸易顺差，因为中国在许多工业领域有相当大的产能过剩，尽管国内消费一直在增长，但增长的速度还不够快。中国的投资则在减少。
Many Chinese families and companies have also been moving huge sums of money overseas, often to invest in real estate. This has tended to weaken the renminbi and has made China more dependent on large trade surpluses to bring in foreign currency and balance the outflow of investment.
许多中国家庭和企业也一直在向海外转移巨资，通常是用投资房地产的方式。这往往会让人民币贬值，同时让中国更加依赖于巨额贸易顺差所带来的外汇，以平衡投资的外流。
