It only takes the tiniest thing to change the world. A butterfly beating its wings in Texas may not start a hurricane in China, but a wrong turn can trigger one of the deadliest wars in human history. Time and again, seemingly insignificant things have proven adept at altering the course of history. But then there are the ones that almost did so, the tiny moments where history hung in the balance, only to swing the other way. In an alternate universe somewhere, these 10 little things created the modern world.
毫不起眼的小事往往能改变历史。德克萨斯州一只蝴蝶的振翅也许不会在中国掀起一阵飓风，但是一个错误的决定却能够导致人类史上伤亡最惨重的战争。一次又一次，那些貌似毫不重要的事情却印证了它们改变了历史进程的能力。但是， 还有一些事情，在它们几乎要改变世界时，历史的天平却在关键的一瞬倾向了另一方。在历史更替的洪流之中，以下这十件事形成了现代社会。
10.A Single Paragraph Almost Prevented The Civil War
10.一篇差点阻止南北战争的文章
Although some contend that the Civil War was fought over states' rights, those rights were inextricably linked to slavery. Texas's declaration of secession, for example, mentions slavery 18 times. But what if there was no slavery in the first place? If Thomas Jefferson had had his way, that might well have been the case.
尽管一些评论认为美国南北战争是为争夺国家权力而爆发的，但其实这些权力与奴隶制有着千丝万缕的关联。以德克萨斯州的开战宣言为例，其中18次提到了奴隶制。但是，如果奴隶制从来就没有存在过，世界会变成什么样呢？如果当年托马斯·杰斐逊成功的废除了奴隶制，也许就可以避免南北战争。 这一说法可在《独立宣言》的早期初稿中得到证实。
This theory hinges on earlier drafts of the Declaration of Independence. Ratified on July 4, 1776, the version we all know is basically one long dis of King George III, trash talking his fitness to rule. It also contains some epically moving passages on human rights, including the equality of all men. These passages were watered down for the final version. In his earlier drafts, Jefferson included a multi-sentence rant against the evils of slavery.The rant took place on the third page, and reads as follows: He(King George III) has waged cruel war against itself, violating it's most sacred of life and liberty in the persons of a distant people, who never offended him, captivating and carrying them into slavery in another hemisphere, or to incur miserable death in their transportation thither. This piratical warfare, the opprobrium of infidel powers, is the warfare of the Christian king of Great Britain, determined to keep open a market where MEN should be bought and sold, he has prostituted his negative for suppressing every legislative attempt to prohibit or to restrain this execrable commerce.In short, the passage makes the horrors of British slavery an integral part to the US's decision to go it solo. Had it made the final version, it could easily have become a rallying cry. If that had been the case, accepting a slave-owning South in the years after the Revolutionary War would have become one heck of a lot harder. With no institution of slavery to fight over, it's probable that the Civil War would never have happened.
众所周知，由于乔治三世国王的专制统治，《独立宣言》于1776年7月4日面世，其中对“人人平等”等人权的宣扬意义非凡。杰斐逊在早期的草稿中慷慨陈词，谴责了奴隶制的罪恶，其中第三页的原文如下：他（乔治三世）发动残酷地反对人性的战争。他强暴了一个远方民族的生命和自由的权利，而他们从来就没有冒犯过他。这场战争拐骗和胁迫了他们，使他们不是在运送途中悲惨地死去，就是被送往地球的另一端充当奴隶。这场由邪恶力量无耻发动的海盗战争，恰恰就是身为基督徒的大不列颠的英皇所发动的战争。他决定打开这样一个市场，在那里，人类可以被买卖。他滥用了他的立法否决权，并利用这个否决权压制了所有打算禁止和限制这种肮脏交易的立法尝试。总而言之，文章向美国民众全面的展现了大不列颠奴隶制的罪恶。如果《独立宣言》保留了杰斐逊初稿中的这些内容，反对奴隶制很可能会成为独立战争的口号之一。如果真是这样，经过多年的独立战争后，美国南方各州将很难保留奴隶制，也就不会发生为废除奴隶制而起的战争，即南北战争。
9.A Picture Of A Fish Nearly Held Back Science For Decades
9.一条鱼的图片差点使科学发展延迟20年
First published in July 1687, Isaac Newton's Principia is one of the most important books ever written. It effectively invented physics, changing the way we see the world and laying the groundwork for centuries of scientific inquiry. Yet it was nearly never published, thanks to a picture of a flying fish.
首版于1687年7月的《艾萨克·牛顿定律》是有史以来最重要的书籍之一。它成功的开创了物理学，改变了我们看待世界的方式，为此后数百年的科学探索奠定了理论基础。而实际上，因为一张飞鱼的图片，它差点没能出版。
In 1686, Britain's Royal Society was preparing to publish the first editions of Principia. Before they could get started, however, they needed to release another blockbuster book. John Ray and Francis Willughby's Historia Piscium was an epic work on the history of fish, featuring extremely detailed engravings. One of the most complex of all was a picture of a flying fish, which alone cost piles of money to reproduce. These costs made the book one of the most expensive ever made. The society released it, and it flopped.It flopped so hard it nearly bankrupted the society. Suddenly lacking any money whatsoever, the publishers canceled their plans to publish Principia. One of the most important books ever written only saw the light of day because a friend of Newton's eventually agreed to provide the cash.
1686年，英国皇家学会准备出版第一版《艾萨克·牛顿定律》。不过在此之前，他们要先出版另一部畅销书。约翰·雷和弗朗西斯·威鲁伯合著的《鱼类志》是研究鱼类的一部史诗级著作，书中极其细致的展现了各种鱼类的图画。其中最复杂的是一张飞鱼的图片，单单这张照片的印制就需要耗费大量成本，这本书因此成为有史以来最贵的一本书。最终，英国皇家学会出版了这本书，但是销路并不好。 这本书成本太高，销路又差，差点导致英国皇家学会破产，他们没有钱再按原定计划出版《艾萨克·牛顿定律》。最终，牛顿的一位朋友提供了资金支援，这本最伟大的著作才得以见诸于世。
8.A Funding Agreement Almost Saw Britain Win The Space Race
8.一个几乎使英国赢得太空竞赛的融资协定
The space race was a bruising scientific showdown that saw both global superpowers take a gold. Russia managed to put the first man in orbit, while the US took the Moon. Yet both were nearly beaten by an unexpected rival. Had a small government department signed off on a check, it's likely that the first man in space would have been from Great Britain.
太空竞赛是殊死搏斗的科学对决，美苏两个超级大国不惜花费大量金钱决一胜负。苏联把第一位太空人送上了地球运行轨道，而美国则使人类登上了月球。然而，这两个国家差点被一个意想不到的对手打败了。如果当时英国政府部门签署通过了融资协定的话，那么第一个登上太空的很有可能是英国人。
In the aftermath of World War II, all of the world's great powers were scrambling to master rocket technology. The US managed to snatch Hitler's rocket man, Wernher von Braun, away from Europe, while the Russians nabbed his old research facilities. Britain had to make do with some old Nazi V-2s that the army had managed to salvage. On this alone, they began to build a viable space program. Immediately after the war, the UK was testing old V-2s by blasting them nearly into orbit and then guiding them down to land. (The rockets couldn't quite reach full orbit.) Ralph Smith of the British Interplanetary Society put forward a design for turning these rockets into habitable machines. He calculated that a single man could be placed in a windowed capsule, blasted into space for up to five minutes, and then returned to Earth safely. The designs were practical and used existing technology. It was estimated that British men could be routinely blasting into space by 1951. At least, they would have been, had the Ministry of Supply not refused to sign the check. In December 1946, Britain was broke, and the new Labour government was more interested in creating the welfare state than putting men into space. Funding was turned down after careful consideration in early 1947, and the fledgling UK space program was abandoned.
第二次世界大战后，世界上的所有大国都在争先掌握火箭技术 。美国设法抓到了希特勒的火箭研发科学家——远离欧洲的沃那·冯·布莱恩先生，苏联则夺取了他以前的研究设施。英国则不得不出动军队打捞纳粹使用过的旧的v-2s型火箭。此后，英国开始独自建立可行的空间项目。在战争后不久，英国对v-2s型火箭进行测试，将火箭几乎发射至运行轨道，然后将其引导回地面。（火箭不能到达完整的运行轨道）。英国星际学会的拉尔夫·史密斯提出一个设计理念，就是把这些火箭改造成可搭载人类的机器。他通过计算得出，宇航员乘坐带有窗户的太空舱，搭载火箭至太空并逗留不超过五分钟，即可安全地返回地面。很快这个设计就应用在现有的技术上。 据估计，如果英国政府通过了这个项目的融资协定的话，英国人在1951年就能登上太空了。但1946年12月，英国破产了，新的工党政府对创造福利国家更感兴趣，不愿把精力花在把人送上太空上。在1947年初经过仔细考虑后，英国政府拒绝通过该融资协定，羽翼未丰的空间计划因此被迫取消。
7.A Snowstorm Could Have Killed Napoleon In 1807
7.拿破仑差点死于一场暴风雪
The Battle of Eylau in February 1807 is today chiefly remembered for seeing Napoleon screw up for the first time as a commander. Fought in East Prussia (modern Russia), it led to a deadlock between the two powers that almost lost Napoleon half his army. He also very nearly lost something much more important, namely his life, to a snowstorm.
1807年二月发生的埃劳战役，在今天看来人们印象最深刻的是拿破仑作为指挥官第一次在战场上节节败退。这场战争发生在东普鲁士(今俄罗斯)，当时两方战斗陷入僵局，而且拿破仑已失去近一半的军队。
On the morning of February 8, Napoleon was playing for time, waiting for reinforcements to arrive. The French troops were taking a beating, and the Russians were advancing. From the top of a bell tower in the town, the emperor tried to get a handle on the situation below. Suddenly, a tremendous snowstorm blew in. In the resulting whiteout, all vision was lost. So blinded were the French by the weather, they didn't notice as 6,000 Russians descended upon the town. Up in his bell tower, Napoleon was practically unguarded. The Russian surprise attack very nearly overwhelmed his position, which would have likely cost him his life. It was only by a combination of luck and insane bravery that his personal guard managed to hold the advancing army at bay just long enough for the reinforcements to finally arrive. The Napoleonic Wars would continue for another eight years.
拿破仑也差点因为一场暴风雪失去对他来说更为重要的东西，那就是他的生命。在2月8日的早上，拿破仑为等待援军的到来而竭力拖延时间。法国的军队在抵抗的同时因俄国人的不断进攻而节节败退。拿破仑站在镇上钟楼的顶端，试图弄清战势。突然，一场巨大的暴风雪来了，在冰天雪地中，一切都看不清楚。能见度太低，法国士兵没有注意到有六千多个俄国人已经兵临城下。而在钟楼上的拿破仑，没有任何防守，俄国的突然进攻让他不知所措，很有可能因此丧命。最终，他的个人护卫不畏生死与不断逼近的俄军在海岸僵持了很长时间，直到最后老天眷顾，援军终于到达。因此，拿破仑战争才能又持续了八年。
6.A Heart Attack Nearly Changed British (And Iraqi) History
6.一场几乎改变英国（和伊拉克）历史的心脏病
On May 12, 1994, British Labour Party leader John Smith suffered a fatal heart attack. His death opened the leadership to a young man known as Tony Blair, who would go on to win three elections in a row. It was a pivotal moment in British history, and it nearly didn't happen thanks to another heart attack.
1994年12月5号，英国工党领袖约翰·史密斯心脏病发去世。他的死亡为年轻的托尼·布莱尔铺平了领袖之路，使他成为连续三次赢得大选的首相。这是英国历史至关重要的时刻，但是由于史密斯的另一场心脏病，这一切差点没有发生。
Back in 1988, Smith had been an up-and-coming member of the Labour party when he suffered his first heart attack. Writing about it decades later, Tony Blair said that this first incident had been brought on by Smith's excessive drinking. Smith was known to enjoy several pints a day and to lead a massively unhealthy lifestyle on top of that. This first heart attack could have served as a warning. It could have encouraged him to stop drinking or to exercise more. It almost certainly should have. Instead, Smith went right back to the bottle. It was a decision that almost certainly contributed to his second, fatal heart attack six years later. Had Smith lived, history would be very different. While the Labour Party would have probably still won the 1997 and 2001 elections (albeit with a lower vote share), the largely anti-interventionist Smith definitely would not have joined the US in invading Iraq. As America's only partner in 2003, it's conceivable that lack of UK support could have stopped the Iraq War from happening at all. In that case, global politics would now look very different.
回到1988年，当史密斯首次发现心脏病时，他还是日见重要的工党成员。几十年后，托尼·布莱尔写到此事时，提及史密斯首次心脏病发是由于饮酒过度。史密斯每天喝几品脱酒已经不是什么秘密了，除此之外他的生活方式也十分不健康。第一次心脏病发本该成为警告，让他停止喝酒或是多做做运动。事情本该如此，可是史密斯反其道而行。这也几乎决定了他六年后会死于心脏病。如果史密斯活着，历史将会截然不同。工党可能仍旧会在1997到2001年的大选中获胜（虽然选票会少一些），极度反对干涉他国内政的史密斯绝对不会参与美军入侵伊拉克的战争。英国是2003年美国唯一的盟友，可以想象，如果没有英国的支持，伊拉克战争根本不可能爆发。那样的话，全球政治格局也将与今天大相径庭。
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