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Let us look at what lies ahead for the rest of 2017 in trade:
让我们看看2017年余下时间有哪些贸易动向：
Trump’s trade war with China
特朗普与中国的贸易战
This is the biggest question hanging over the global economy. And the biggest risk.
这是悬在全球经济头顶的最大问题，也是最大风险。
After China hawk Steve Bannon’s exit there was a temptation to proclaim the death of the Trump White House’s economic nationalism. But that ignored the presence of Donald Trump, who is instinctually a protectionist. He wants “tariffs” rather than deals when it comes to China, as we’ve learned in recent days. He also sees cracking down on China as key to keeping his “America First” promise to his base.
在主张对华强硬的史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)出局之后，人们就忍不住想要宣布特朗普政府的经济民族主义已死。但这忽视了唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)是怎样一个人——他是一个本能的保护主义者。正如我们近来所了解到的，对于中国，他更想要的是“关税”而不是交易。他还认为打击中国是向其基础选民履行他的“美国优先”承诺的关键。
The only things in the way are his staff, Republicans in Congress and the limits of his power. And those are important. Campaign promises of 45 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods have turned into investigations into Beijing’s intellectual property regime.
他仅面临这几个障碍：他的手下、国会里的共和党人以及总统行政权的限度。而这几个障碍都非常有分量。他竞选时声称要对中国货物征收45%关税的承诺，已经变成对中国知识产权做法展开调查。
My bet is those forces — and America’s CEOs — will continue to temper the president’s trade tantrums in the short term. But there are lots of people baying for Chinese trade blood in Washington these days.
我打赌短期内这些力量——以及美国的首席执行官们——将继续缓和总统在贸易上的火气。不过眼下华盛顿有很多人叫嚣着要在贸易上惩罚中国。
The Brexit trade uncertainty
英国脱欧带来的贸易不确定性
The most striking thing about the UK’s looming exit from the EU is how few details we still know about what Brexit will bring. And that it has been more than a year since the referendum.
关于英国即将离开欧盟最引人注目的事情是，我们居然仍对脱欧具体会带来什么后果知之甚少。全民公投可是一年多以前的事了。
Theresa May is still facing resistance from within her own party. Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrats’ sage and leader, still thinks Brexit may not really happen.
特里萨?梅(Theresa May)依然面临着党内阻力。自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)的智者兼领导人文斯?凯布尔(Vince Cable)依然认为脱欧可能不会真的发生。
It seems safe to predict lots more noise and very little progress for the rest of 2017. And that will continue to be a damaging combination for business and the UK economy.
现在似乎可以放心地预言，2017年余下时间会出现更多噪音、甚少进展，而这将继续对贸易和英国经济造成破坏。
China’s bid to close its own Asia-Pac deal
中国力争达成自己的亚太区协议
Beijing is pushing hard to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership by the end of the year. The deal has long been called China’s answer to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and its bid for regional trade hegemony.
北京正努力在年底前完成《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，简称RCEP）。该协议长期以来被称为中国面对《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，简称TPP）的对策，以及代表了中国争取区域贸易霸权的努力。
Technically it is a project of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to bring all of its trade deals in the region under one umbrella. It also lacks the ambition on many fronts of the TPP.
从技术上来说，这是东盟(ASEAN)十个成员国将本地区所有贸易协议纳入一个整体框架的计划。它也没有TPP在许多方面的雄心。
But closing the deal on RCEP less than a year after Donald Trump pulled the US out of the TPP would be a big win for Beijing.
但对于北京来说，若能在特朗普让美国退出TPP后不到一年的时间里达成RCEP协议，将是一场巨大的胜利。
Likewise, if the 11 countries led by Japan left in the TPP manage to salvage a deal following the US exit that could provide some balance in the region.
同样地，如果TPP剩下的11国在美国退出后，能在日本的带领下设法挽救该协议，可能为该地区带来一些平衡。
The drama in Nafta
《北美自由贸易协定》(Nafta)的大戏
With the second round of (re)negotiations closing on Tuesday we have truly entered the technocratic phase of these trade talks.
在第二轮（重新）谈判不久前结束后，我们真正进入了贸易谈判的技术官僚阶段。
Still, the clock is ticking and President Trump is doing his best to add dramatic tension by threatening a withdrawal.
不过，时间不等人，特朗普总统也正通过威胁退出谈判而极力增添一些戏剧性的紧张感。
I expect the real drama to come early in 2018. But this is Donald Trump’s trade world. We just live in it.
我预计真正的大戏将在2018年初展开。但这是唐纳德?特朗普的贸易世界。我们只有观看的份儿。
Don’t cry for the WTO
不要为WTO哭泣
We began the year worried that the US was poised to withdraw from the World Trade Organisation. That hasn’t happened. And it’s now unlikely to any time soon.
今年伊始，我们曾担心特朗普准备退出世贸组织(WTO)。这种情况并未发生。如今这也不太可能在短时间内发生。
But we are going to get a taste of the new world order when the WTO’s members gather for its biennial ministerial in Buenos Aires in December. It’s unclear, as always, if the WTO will be able to deliver anything of substance. But the real test lies in not having the US leading the way in discussions for the first time in the WTO’s life. Will China step in? The EU? And will India be as minded to block any deal as it has been in the past?
但是，当今年12月WTO成员国聚集在布宜诺斯艾利斯召开两年一度的部长级会议时，我们将一尝世界新秩序的味道。一如既往的是，目前尚不清楚WTO此次能否产生一些实质性内容。但真正的考验在于，WTO有史以来第一次不由美国牵头讨论。中国或欧盟会取而代之吗？印度会像过去一样一心阻挠任何协议吗？
The EU’s Americas gambits
欧盟的美洲布局
The EU is making clear it wants to use the void in US leadership on trade to nail down new trade agreements. The negotiations with the Mercosur trade bloc in Latin America have been going on in fits and starts for more than a decade. But the EU and key Mercosur members like Argentina are now pushing to conclude a deal by the end of this year. That would be a big statement planted right in the US’s backyard.
欧盟正明确表现出，它希望利用美国在贸易上领导力的空缺来敲定新的贸易协议。欧盟在拉丁美洲与南方共同市场(Mercosur)的谈判时断时续，已经进行了10多年。但欧盟和阿根廷等南方共同市场的关键成员国正推动在今年年底前达成一项协议。这将成为一项重要声明，正好杵在美国的后院内。
So too would be concluding the EU’s own (re)negotiation of its existing trade agreement with Mexico. And there is a good chance Brussels could beat Donald Trump to the finish line on a deal with Mexico.
欧盟完成与墨西哥现有贸易协议的（重新）谈判也是如此。在与墨西哥签订协议上，布鲁塞尔很可能比特朗普先冲过终点线。
Potus v Korus
美国总统vs韩美自由贸易协定
Had the North Koreans not set off another nuclear test at the weekend the big story this week on the Korean peninsula might have been the Trump administration’s odd timing in announcing its plans to pull out of a trade deal with Seoul.
要不是朝鲜再次进行核试验，朝鲜半岛眼下的大新闻可能就是特朗普选在这个节骨眼上宣布计划退出韩美贸易协定了。
As inevitably happens with all things trade in this White House a vigorous debate has erupted over the future of Korus, as the pact is known in Washington. Among the biggest opponents within the administration are the Trump security team, which thinks breaking commercial ties with an important ally in the middle of a geopolitical crisis is probably not a great idea. US business doesn’t like the idea either. Both are likely to mean at least some short-term delays in Washington carrying out any threats. But then again the politics are also volatile in Seoul. Might the new government there exercise its own right to pull out?
正如这届美国政府中一切与贸易有关的事项一样，韩美贸易协定(Korus)的未来也不可避免地引发了激烈辩论。本届政府内部强烈反对退出该协议的是特朗普安全团队，他们认为在一场地缘政治危机期间切断与重要盟友的贸易纽带很可能不是个好主意。美国企业也不支持退出。这两股力量都可能意味着美国政府至少在短期内不会发出任何威胁。但是话又说回来，首尔方面的政治局势也不稳定。韩国新政府是否可能行使自己退出协定的权利呢？
