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Why the Price of Gold Keeps Breaking Records
为什么金价持续打破纪录
At his inauguration, President Trump said that “the golden age of America begins right now.”
在就职典礼上，特朗普总统表示：“美国的黄金时代，从现在开始。”
He was right, in one sense.
从某种意义上说，他是对的。
The price of gold has been bursting through records in the first month of Mr. Trump’s second term, recently trading at more than $2,900 per troy ounce.
黄金价格在特朗普第二个任期的第一个月内不断突破历史记录，最近每盎司的交易价格已超过2900美元。
It is up about 12 percent already this year, on top of a 27 percent gain last year.
今年金价已经上涨了大约12%，而且是在去年27%的涨幅基础上。
Many strategists are upgrading their forecasts, predicting more gains ahead.
许多策略师正在上调预测，预计未来会有更多收益。
There is so much demand for gold in New York, the global hub for futures trading, that it has led to long waits to get bars out of vaults in London, where the physical market for gold is based.
纽约是全球期货交易中心，现在对黄金的需求如此之大，以至于在伦敦这个黄金实物市场，从金库中取出金条需要等待很长时间。
Gold has risen in the popular consciousness, too: Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that officials in his administration would go to Fort Knox, the military base that houses about half of the Treasury Department’s gold reserves, “to make sure the gold is there.”
黄金在公众意识中的地位也有所上升：特朗普在上周三表示，政府官员将前往诺克斯堡，这是存放着财政部约一半黄金储备的军事基地，“以确保黄金还在那里”。
(Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said it was.)
（财政部长斯科特·贝森特后来表示，黄金还在。）
Gold is traditionally considered a haven asset, sought out by investors during times of turmoil.
黄金一直被视为避险资产，投资者在动荡时期会寻求黄金作为避风港。
But, curiously, U.S. stocks have continued to set their own records, and the labor market looks solid.
但奇怪的是，美国股市仍在不断创下纪录，劳动力市场看起来也很稳健。
Instead, among the explanations for the gold rush are fears that Mr. Trump’s policies on tariffs and deportations could cause stronger inflation and worsen geopolitical tensions.
相反，这波淘金热的原因是人们担心特朗普的关税和移民驱逐政策可能会导致更严重的通货膨胀，并加剧地缘政治紧张局势。
“These moves lately have been driven since the election of Donald Trump,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at the Swiss bank UBS.
“最近这些买黄金的行为是由特朗普当选以来推动的，”瑞士银行瑞银的大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼·斯塔诺沃表示。
“There is a search for assets that are considered uncorrelated to other markets, perceived as an insurance asset,” he added.
“人们在寻找被认为与其他市场不相关的资产，人们将其视为一种保险资产。”他补充道。
Gold is “not perfect” for this purpose, he said, but investors’ belief that now is a good time to hold it has supported demand for the precious metal.
他说，黄金在这方面“并不完美”，但投资者认为现在是持有黄金的好时机，这支撑了对这种贵金属的需求。
Trade war looming? Buy gold.
贸易战逼近？买黄金。
Mr. Trump has threatened “reciprocal” tariffs on other countries, which could upend the rules of global trade.
特朗普威胁要对其他国家征收“互惠”关税，这可能会颠覆全球贸易规则。
If a “full-blown” trade war broke out, gold would be the best performing asset, according to a majority of global fund managers recently surveyed by Bank of America.
根据美国银行最近对全球基金经理的调查，如果“全面”贸易战爆发，黄金将是表现最佳的资产。
The potential impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth has “played to gold’s strengths,” said Louise Street, a strategist at the World Gold Council, a trade association in London.
世界黄金协会（位于伦敦的行业协会）的策略师路易丝·斯特里特表示，关税对通胀和经济增长的潜在影响“迎合了黄金的优势”。
There are also fears that tariffs may be applied directly to gold imports, which is leading to stockpiling in the United States.
也有人担心关税可能会直接用于黄金进口，这导致美国的黄金囤积。
The gold inventory at the New York-based Commodity Exchange, or COMEX, has increased more than 70 percent since the start of the year.
纽约商品交易所的黄金库存自年初以来增加了70%以上。
This concern about tariffs is part of the reason UBS recently raised its forecast for the price of gold, saying it will hit $3,000 per ounce at the end of the year.
这种对关税的担忧是瑞银最近上调黄金价格预测的部分原因，该银行表示，黄金价格将在年底达到每盎司3000美元。
