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Finance & economics
财经版块
Buttonwood
梧桐树专栏
Reshoring ain’t reassuring
回流本土并非万事大吉
Stockmarkets do not reward firms for investing in Trump’s America.
股市并未因企业投资特朗普治下的美国而给予回报。
What do the following three companies have in common?
以下三家公司有何共同点？
Stellantis, owner of the Fiat, Jeep and Chrysler brands; Merck, which makes the world’s bestselling cancer drug; and Barry Callebaut, a Swiss chocolate-maker, which is particularly proud of its ruby flavour, neither sweet nor bitter.
拥有菲亚特、吉普、克莱斯勒品牌的Stellantis汽车集团，生产全球最畅销抗癌药物的默克公司，以及瑞士巧克力制造商百乐嘉利宝，该公司引以为豪的是其研发的既不甜腻也不苦涩的红宝石巧克力。
One answer: their capital-expenditure (capex) plans.
一个答案：他们的资本支出计划是相同的。
All three have announced investments in America since Donald Trump won last year’s presidential election.
自唐纳德·特朗普赢得去年总统大选以来，这三家公司均已宣布在美国投资。
In January Stellantis (whose largest shareholder part-owns The Economist’s parent company) said that it would build the next Dodge Durango in Detroit and reopen an assembly plant in Illinois, putting union members back to work.
1月，Stellantis集团（其最大股东持有《经济学人》母公司的部分股份）宣布将在底特律生产下一代道奇杜兰戈车型，并重启伊利诺伊州的一家装配厂，让工会成员重新获得工作。
Two months later Merck announced the opening of a vaccine plant in North Carolina.
两个月后，默克宣布在北卡罗来纳州开设一家疫苗工厂。
And on April 10th Barry Callebaut said it would expand a plant in America to help it cope with the “disruptive environment” Mr Trump’s new administration has created.
4月10日，百乐嘉利宝表示将扩建其在美国的一家工厂，以应对特朗普新政府制造的“破坏性环境”。
Mr Trump is, of course, delighted by this kind of news.
特朗普对这类消息当然感到高兴。
The White House added the chocolate-maker to a list of more than two dozen companies that have announced investments in America since the president’s return to power.
自总统重新掌权以来，已有二十多家公司宣布在美国投资，白宫也将这家巧克力制造商加入了这份名单中。
“We are already seeing progress in reshoring American industry,” it said.
“我们已经看到美国产业回流本土正在取得进展。”白宫称。
The spending is presumably good for America. But is it good for the companies themselves?
这种支出想必是对美国有益。但对公司本身有益吗？
Even the president should care about this question.
就连总统也应该关心这个问题。
Trump Media, one of his firms, has just launched new investment accounts that let people bet their money on MAGA themes like “Made in America”.
总统自己的一家公司特朗普传媒刚刚推出了新的投资账户，让人们可以把钱押在“美国制造”等MAGA主题上。（注：MAGA即特朗普的口号“让美国再次伟大”。）
So do capex announcements that gratify Mr Trump also please shareholders?
那么，让特朗普满意的资本支出公告是否也让股东满意呢？
In theory, the answer is ambiguous.
理论上，答案是模棱两可的。
The impact of capex on a company’s share price can be sweet, bitter or neither.
资本支出对公司股价的影响可以是甜蜜的、苦涩的，也可能毫无影响。
An optimistic view is that such spending ought to lift share prices.
乐观的看法是这类支出应当会推高股价。
Why else would companies do it?
否则企业为何要这么做？
Managers have strong incentives to care about what shareholders think.
企业经理人有强烈的动机去关注股东的想法。
And shareholders have reason to defer to a firm’s judgment about the deployment of capital.
股东们有理由遵从公司关于资本配置的判断。
That is, after all, why investors entrust their capital to a firm in the first place.
毕竟，这就是投资者最初将资金托付给一家公司的原因。
Other theories are less optimistic.
其他理论则不那么乐观。
Institutional investors may have short time horizons, punishing any costly plan that privileges distant years over the next quarter.
机构投资者的目光可能较为短视，他们会让任何牺牲下个季度的利益而优先考虑长远收益的高成本方案吃苦头。
Alternatively, managers may have skewed incentives of their own.
或者，企业经理人自己可能存在扭曲的激励动机。
They may be tempted to build a corporate empire with money that would be better returned to shareholders.
他们可能会忍不住把本该返还给股东的钱用来打造企业帝国。
According to a third, “efficient markets” view, investment is neither bitter nor sweet.
第三种观点是“有效市场”，这种观点认为投资既无苦也无甜。
A company’s share price will already reflect its expected capital outlays in the future.
一家公司的股价已经反映了其未来的预期资本支出。
Capex announcements will move the price only if they deviate from these expectations.
只有当资本支出公告与这些预期出现偏差时，才会对股价产生影响。
Most studies find that share prices respond positively to capex announcements, if only weakly.
大多数研究发现，股价对资本支出公告的反应是积极的，尽管这种反应可能较为微弱。
The firms showcased by the White House have a couple of extra things going for them.
白宫展示的这些公司还有几个额外好处。
Moving production to America will help them escape Mr Trump’s tariffs, as he himself points out.
正如特朗普所指出的，将生产转移到美国将帮助企业避开关税。
Another potential benefit is winning the president’s goodwill.
另一个潜在好处是赢得总统的好感。
Indeed, some bosses made their announcements standing alongside Mr Trump.
其实一些企业老板就是站在特朗普身旁宣布了资本支出消息。
Despite all this, shareholders appear unconvinced.
尽管如此，股东们似乎并不信服。
Of the listed companies that are featured in the White House press release, 20 have made firm capex announcements.
在白宫新闻稿中提及的上市公司里，已有20家公布了资本支出计划。
In only 11 out of these 20 cases was the company’s share price higher on the day after the announcement than on the day before.
在这20家公司中，仅有11家公司在公布资本支出计划次日的股价高于公布前一天的股价。
Moreover, 15 of these companies have underperformed their national equity market since Mr Trump won last year’s election.
此外，自特朗普赢得去年大选以来，其中15家公司的股票表现逊于美股平均水平。
A simple, equal-weighted average of these stocks has fallen by almost 12% in dollar terms since election day, compared with the 7% decline in the S&P 500 index of big American firms.
自大选日以来，这15家公司股票的简单等权平均市值以美元计算已下跌近12%，而同期标普500指数中的美国大型企业股价跌幅仅为7%。
Many of the companies have idiosyncratic problems.
许多公司都有各自独特的问题。
Barry Callebaut has been hurt by the volatile price of cocoa.
百乐嘉利宝受到可可价格波动的影响。
Merck has encountered weak demand in China for its otherwise successful human-papillomavirus vaccine.
默克的HPV疫苗在中国市场需求疲软，尽管该疫苗在其他地区很成功。
Stellantis bade farewell to its contentious chief executive in December.
Stellantis在12月与其颇具争议的CEO结束合作。
And the firms’ plans may reflect fear more than enthusiasm.
这三家公司的计划可能更多反映了恐惧而非热情。
Their decision to expand operations in America so early in Mr Trump’s term could suggest they were unusually exposed to his tariff plans, and the “disruptive environment” levies have created.
它们在特朗普任期之初就早早决定在美国扩大业务，这可能表明它们异常容易受到其关税计划及这些关税所创造的“破坏性环境”的影响。
Certainly, for Stellantis, Merck and Barry Callebaut, Mr Trump’s second term has not been a box of chocolates.
当然，对Stellantis、默克、百乐嘉利宝而言，特朗普的第二任期并非如一盒巧克力般甜蜜。
Another thing all three have in common: a slump in their share price since election day of over 20%.
这三家公司还有一个共同点：自选举日以来，其股价跌幅均超过20%。
