Copper held above $6,000 a tonne yesterday, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year as the dollar retreated and equity markets in China rallied.
昨日铜价在每吨6000美元上方站住脚跟,回到今年初的水平,这得益于美元下跌、中国股市上涨。
The metal used in wiring and power cables fell to its lowest level in five years in mid-January as demand in China weakened before the new year holiday and short sellers pushed down the metal.
1月中旬时,这种用于供电线路和电缆的金属的价格下降至五年低点,原因在于春节假期之前中国需求下降,以及做空者出手打压铜价。
That sentiment has temporarily eased over the past week after remarks from the Federal Reserve capped the dollar’s dramatic rise and stocks in China traded near a seven-year high on expectations of government stimulus.
市场情绪在过去一周暂时有所缓解,此前美联储(Fed)的表态遏制了美元的飙升,中国股市在有关政府刺激政策的预期推动下涨至7年新高。
The dollar index, a measure of the currency relative to its major trade partners, was down 0.7 per cent. A strong US currency is generally bad for most commodities since they are priced in dollars.
美元指数(衡量美元对美国主要贸易伙伴国货币汇率变化程度的指标)下降了0.7%。美元走强基本上对大多数大宗商品构成利空,因为大宗商品是以美元定价的。
Copper for three months delivery rose 1.2 per cent to $6,119.5 on the London Metal Exchange. In Shanghai, the most traded copper contract hit its highest level since early January.
在伦敦金属交易所(LME),三个月交割的铜价上涨1.2%,至每吨6119.5美元。在上海,交易最活跃的铜合约价格上升至1月初以来的最高水平。
China’s benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite index, rallied for a ninth day on hopes of further monetary easing to boost flagging growth, with shares in Jiangxi Copper, the company’s biggest producer, up 3.9 per cent.
中国基准股指——上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)连续第9日上涨,原因是市场预期政府将加大货币宽松力度,以提振疲弱的增长。中国最大的铜生产商江西铜业(Jiangxi Copper)股价上涨了约3.9%。
Still, trade data released for February highlighted the weak demand for metals. Total copper metal unit imports were at the weakest levels since July 2011, according to Jefferies.
尽管如此,2月的贸易数据凸显了金属需求的疲软。Jefferies数据显示,铜的总进口量处于2011年7月以来最低水平。
“Copper consumers are nervous and unwilling to commit while traders don’t want to hold too much material over fears that prices could drop further,” said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Jefferies. “That said, perhaps the worst is past; sentiment is already negative and there should be at least some sequential improvement in demand over the next month or so.”
“铜消费者感到紧张,不愿下单,而交易商不愿持有太多原材料,因为他们担心价格进一步下降,”Jefferies分析师盖尔•贝瑞(Gayle Berry)表示。“即便如此,或许最坏时刻已过去;市场情绪已很悲观,未来1个月左右,需求方面应会逐渐有所改善。”
Copper’s fate this year is likely to hinge on the state of China’s property market and investment in power lines by state-owned State Grid. On the supply side, the market is expected to be balanced, according to analysts.
今年的铜价行情很可能取决于中国房地产市场状况,以及国有的国家电网(State Grid)对输电线的投资水平。分析师们表示,从供应面看,市场有望达到平衡。
Given the tendency for disruptions at copper mines that can halt or curtail production, the downside to the price is relatively limited, according to Leon Westgate, an analyst at Standard Bank.
标准银行(Standard Bank)分析师莱昂•韦斯特盖特(Leon Westgate)表示,鉴于铜矿的生产常常受到干扰,可能导致生产中断或产量受到抑制,铜价下跌空间相对有限。
For the price to rise further, there would need to be seasonal improvement in Chinese industrial demand, normally between February and May, says Tom Price, analyst at Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师汤姆•普莱斯(Tom Price)表示,铜价若要进一步上升,将需要中国工业需求发生季节性改善——通常发生在2月至5月间。