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One in 10 workers in the eurozone will remain unemployed even after the effects of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme have rippled through the economy, according to ECB projections, highlighting deep scars left by the bloc’s financial and debt crises.
根据欧洲央行(ECB)的预测，即使欧洲央行债券购买计划的效果扩散到整个欧元区经济，欧元区每10个劳动者仍有1人失业，凸显出欧元区金融危机和债务危机遗留下来的深刻创痕。
Mario Draghi, ECB president, told the EU parliament yesterday that “growth is gaining momentum” in the eurozone.
欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)昨日告诉欧洲议会，欧元区的“增长正在形成势头”。
“The easing of lending conditions is progressing hand in hand with a resurgent demand for credit to finance business investment,” Mr Draghi said. “In the longer-term perspective, this will increase potential output.”
“贷款环境的放松，正与以商业投资为目的的信贷需求的复苏齐头并进，”德拉吉说，“从较长期的视角来看，这将提高潜在产出。”
But questions remain over how much the recovery will benefit those worst affected by the years of recession and near-stagnation. Joblessness in the area remains at 11.2 per cent. The ECB’s latest forecasts suggest the crisis has been so severe that the jobless rate will stay close to double figures even after the 1.1tn quantitative easing programme is fully implemented. By contrast, the jobless rate in the US stood at 5.5 per cent in February and is set to go below 5 per cent this year. UK unemployment is forecast to fall to 5.3 per cent this year.
但仍然存在一个问题：在多年的经济衰退和增长几近停滞中受影响最大的人群，将在多大程度上受益于经济复苏？目前欧元区的失业率仍为11.2%。欧洲央行的最新预测表明，危机非常严重，以至于完全实施1.1万亿欧元的量化宽松计划后，失业率仍将接近两位数。相较之下，美国2月的失业率为5.5%，今年内将跌至5%以下。据预测英国的失业率今年将跌至5.3%。
“The bottom line is that it’s extremely disappointing that eurozone policy makers continue to tolerate an unacceptably high and dangerous level of unemployment,” said Jonathan Portes, director of Britain’s National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Estimates published this month show ECB economists believe 9.9 per cent of the labour market will still be without work by the end of 2017 — the point at which the central bank expects the region’s cyclical recovery to be complete.
“最根本的是，欧元区的政策制定者依然容忍高到不可接受的、危险的失业率水平，这极其令人失望，”英国智库国家经济社会研究院(National Institute for Economic and Social Research, NIESR)的院长乔纳森•波特斯(Jonathan Portes)说。本月发布的估测表明，欧洲央行的经济学家们认为，到2017年底，也就是欧洲央行预期欧元区完成周期性复苏的时候，劳动力市场仍将有9.9%的人失业。
Some economist think the ECB’s estimates too gloomy. But many predict that unemployment will remain substantially higher than the 7.2 per cent low seen in early 2008.
一些经济学家认为欧洲央行的预测过于消极。但许多人预计，失业率将远高于2008年初7.2%的低位。
“What we have seen in Europe is a deskilling of the labour force because of a protracted period of high unemployment,” said Lucrezia Reichlin, a professor at the London Business School. “I believe in the eurozone’s recovery. But it’s a very modest recovery and that means we are never going to recover a lot of what we have lost in terms of output and employment.”
“我们在欧洲看到的是，旷日持久的高失业率导致劳动力大军失去技能，”伦敦商学院(London Business School)经济学教授卢克雷齐娅•赖希林(Lucrezia Reichlin)说，“我相信欧元区的复苏是真实的。但这是一次非常温和的复苏，这意味着我们无法收复很大一部分失去的产出和就业。”
The young have borne the brunt of the crisis, with jobless rates for under-25s in Spain and Greece above 50 per cent.
年轻人受危机的冲击最大，在西班牙和希腊，25岁以下人群的失业率超过了50%。
