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The world ahead
2025年度展望
Cities of the future: why China's second- and third-tier cities are thriving?
未来的城市：中国的二三线城市为何繁荣？
Until very recently, China’s young people, investors, consumers and creators flocked to just four cities: Beijing, the capital; Shanghai, a financial hub; Shenzhen, a tech centre; and Guangzhou, an export powerhouse.
直到不久前，中国的年轻人、投资者、消费者和创作者还只涌向四个城市：首都北京、金融中心上海、科技中心深圳和出口重镇广州。
With giant populations, superior public services and gleaming infrastructure, these were dubbed “first-tier” cities by the government.
这些城市拥有庞大的人口、优越的公共服务和便捷诱人的基础设施，被政府称为“一线”城市。
But in 2025 China’s smaller cities will start to steal their thunder.
但在2025年，中国的小城市将开始抢占先机。
First-tier cities are losing their lustre.
一线城市正在失去它们的光彩。
They have become unaffordable for most Chinese: median house prices are typically 30-40 times higher than median incomes.
对于大多数中国人来说，房价已经变得难以承受：房价中位数通常是收入中位数的30-40倍。
They also have a poor quality of life, with many companies demanding a ”996” work schedule (9am-9pm, six days a week).
他们的生活质量也很差，许多公司要求“996”工作时间表(一周六天，每天从早上9点到晚上9点)。
Underpaid and overworked, their residents are spending less amid China’s economic slump.
在中国经济不景气的情况下，工资过低、工作过度的居民支出也随之减少。
Profits in Beijing’s restaurant sector fell by nearly 90% in the first half of 2024.
2024年上半年，北京餐饮业的利润下降了近90%。
Many second- or third-tier cities, meanwhile, are on the up.
与此同时，许多二三线城市的房价也在上涨。
Their infrastructure is top-notch, housing is relatively cheap and the pace of work is more relaxed.
他们的基础设施是一流的，住房相对便宜，工作节奏更轻松。
Their economic growth often outpaces the national average.
他们的经济增长经常超过全国平均水平。
And by Western standards, they are still giants: many have populations of over 10m, and are still growing rapidly.
按照西方的标准，它们仍然是巨型城市：许多国家的人口超过1000万，而且仍在快速增长。
Beijing and Shanghai, by contrast, are now shrinking.
相比之下，北京和上海的人口现在正在缩水。
In 2025 it will be consumers in smaller cities who will keep businesses afloat.
到2025年，小城市的消费者将供养企业能够继续运营。
With lower living costs, they can afford to splash out.
由于生活成本较低，他们有余力大肆消费。
Little wonder that coffee shops and electric-car dealers are springing up on smaller cities’ streets.
难怪咖啡店和电动汽车经销商如雨后春笋般出现在小城市的街道上。
Yum China, which operates kfc, a fast-food chain, plans to add several thousand new outlets by 2026, more than half of them in smaller cities.
经营快餐连锁店肯德基的“百胜中国”计划到2026年新增数千家门店，其中一半以上位于较小的城市。
In the coming year smaller cities will attract more young people.
在接下来的一年里，小城市将吸引更多的年轻人。
Surveys suggest that white-collar workers are increasingly sick of the tier-one grind.
调查显示，白领们越来越厌倦这种繁重的工作。
In the summer 12m students will graduate from China’s universities.
明年夏天，中国将有1200万名大学生毕业。
Many will look for jobs, not in Beijing and Shanghai, but in cities like Changsha and Nanjing—provincial capitals with vibrant cultural industries.
许多人会找工作，他们不是去北京和上海，而是去长沙和南京等文化产业蓬勃发展的省会城市。
Both are attracting lots of livestreamers, musicians and artists.
两者都吸引了大量的直播人员、音乐家和艺术家。
Talented young people will help China’s smaller cities make technological progress, too.
才华横溢的年轻人也将帮助中国所在的小城市取得技术进步。
Take Hefei, a former backwater in eastern China’s Anhui province.
以合肥为例，它所在的安徽省曾是中国一穷二白的地方。
Thanks to government investment and private enterprise, it now has a thriving tech sector, with industries like high-end manufacturing, biotech and semiconductors.
多亏了政府投资和私营企业，它现在拥有了蓬勃发展的科技行业，包括高端制造、生物技术和半导体等行业。
In the coming year officials will focus on developing its “low-altitude economy”, China’s preferred term for delivery drones and flying taxis.
在接下来的一年里，官员们将把重点放在发展“低空经济”上。“低空经济”是中国对送货无人机和飞行出租车的称呼。
Smaller cities can offer a more relaxed political atmosphere, too.
较小城市里的政治氛围也更宽松。
Chengdu, a city in the south-west, is known for its teahouses, laid-back lifestyle and counter-cultural music.
成都，一个西南部的城市，以其茶馆、悠闲的生活方式和反文化音乐而闻名。
It is increasingly drawing liberal-minded young people from first-tier cities.
它正越来越多地吸引来自一线城市的思想开明的年轻人。
