3Hyperbolic Discounting
Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it is interesting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?
3双曲线贴现
双曲线贴现是指人们更倾向于小额的,现时的支付而不是后来大笔的支付的倾向。很多研究表明在决策方面,有很多因素的导致个人决策过程。有意思的是,延后的时间是在做出改变的一个很主要的因素。绝大多数人希望今天能得到20美元而不是今天起1年后得到100美元。正常来说,应该马上选择钱多的一方而不是选择较少的,在未来的钱会比今天或者明天的钱更值钱,假设利率是9%,在此利率下,一个神志清楚的人会选择现在拿91.74美元,或者1年后拿100美元,然而,这一有趣的现象我们是多么想要现在拿到而不是等待一年以后。你是希望一年后拿100美元,还是现在拿50美元?那40美元呢?什么才是你的底线?