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5. 购买长期债券
A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality, bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.
令人吃惊的人，仍有很多人接受这样的观点：包括长期政府债券在内的债券是“安全的”。实际上，债券──特别是长期政府债券──是少有的一种已经被明确宣告的泡沫。
The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.
美联储在毫不掩饰地大肆印着钞票，并用这些印出来的钞票买国债，从而抬高这类债券的价格，压低利率，以便能够帮助提振美国经济。这一点毫无争议。这是公开的政策。
A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
30年期美国国债目前的收益率仅为3.1%。这比长期通货膨胀预期仅高出半个百分点。如果以过往的标准来衡量，30年期国债的收益率应该至少达到4.5%，比通货膨胀率高出两个百分点。
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
30年期通胀挂钩国债的“实际”年收益率，即扣除通货膨胀因素后的收益率，为0.6%。而以过往的标准来衡量，这一收益率应当是2%。
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
购买这类债券的唯一理由只能是押注经济会重现上世纪30年代那样的大萧条，而且会出现全球性的通货紧缩。投资这类债券是在赌博，不是避险。
